[WTS] 42 TH/s / 6 Months Bitmine.ch Cloud mining contract

[ACCTseller]

I will sell this contract for 45 BTC, you can clearly make a good ROI with it

Also do you have a reserve price? You mention what Bitmine.ch is charging on their website but fail to mention what you are willing to take for it

Maintenance fee is 80 USD / TH / month

Oops, it looks like I missed that. If maintenance/electric cost is $80 per TH per month then it would cost $3,360 per month for the entire contract for maintenance.

Assuming that difficulty increases 10% every 2016 blocks then maintenance would exceed revenue after 75 days and you would have lost ~37 BTC on the contract. If difficulty increases by 5% then maintenance would exceed revenue after 145 days (which is just before the end of the contract because it is already a month in) and you would end up losing ~30 BTC. If difficulty goes up by 1% then revenue would exceed maintenance for the rest of the contract, however after 162 days you would have lost ~14 BTC. In order to have any kind of ROI on this contract you would need to have difficulty decrease by ~2% every 2016 blocks (something I would consider extremely unlikely, especially over a 5 month period) which would result in a profit of ~1.9 BTC on a 45 BTC investment or a ~4.22% return.

Source: bitcoinwisdom
Calculations:

Code:

Difficulty Increment: rates above
Electric Price: 0
Pool fee: 0
Hash rate: 42 TH/s
Price: 45 BTC
Hardware power: 0
Start date: 1
Delivery Cost: 0
Setup Cost: 0
Maintain cost: $3,360 per month
BTC/USD: 356
Current difficulty: 39,603,666,252
Adjust time: 1415154631
Block reward: 25
Block generation speed: 600

[erskPeter]

I will sell this contract for 45 BTC, you can clearly make a good ROI with it

Also do you have a reserve price? You mention what Bitmine.ch is charging on their website but fail to mention what you are willing to take for it

Maintenance fee is 80 USD / TH / month

Oops, it looks like I missed that. If maintenance/electric cost is $80 per TH per month then it would cost $3,360 per month for the entire contract for maintenance.

Assuming that difficulty increases 10% every 2016 blocks then maintenance would exceed revenue after 75 days and you would have lost ~37 BTC on the contract. If difficulty increases by 5% then maintenance would exceed revenue after 145 days (which is just before the end of the contract because it is already a month in) and you would end up losing ~30 BTC. If difficulty goes up by 1% then revenue would exceed maintenance for the rest of the contract, however after 162 days you would have lost ~14 BTC. In order to have any kind of ROI on this contract you would need to have difficulty decrease by ~2% every 2016 blocks (something I would consider extremely unlikely, especially over a 5 month period) which would result in a profit of ~1.9 BTC on a 45 BTC investment or a ~4.22% return.

Source: bitcoinwisdom

Calculations:

Code:

Difficulty Increment: rates above
Electric Price: 0
Pool fee: 0
Hash rate: 42 TH/s
Price: 45 BTC
Hardware power: 0
Start date: 1
Delivery Cost: 0
Setup Cost: 0
Maintain cost: $3,360 per month
BTC/USD: 356
Current difficulty: 39,603,666,252
Adjust time: 1415154631
Block reward: 25
Block generation speed: 600

Your projections are too pessimistic. It remains to be seen what will be the difficulty adjustment for the interested period of time.

[ACCTseller]

I will sell this contract for 45 BTC, you can clearly make a good ROI with it

Also do you have a reserve price? You mention what Bitmine.ch is charging on their website but fail to mention what you are willing to take for it

Maintenance fee is 80 USD / TH / month

Oops, it looks like I missed that. If maintenance/electric cost is $80 per TH per month then it would cost $3,360 per month for the entire contract for maintenance.

Assuming that difficulty increases 10% every 2016 blocks then maintenance would exceed revenue after 75 days and you would have lost ~37 BTC on the contract. If difficulty increases by 5% then maintenance would exceed revenue after 145 days (which is just before the end of the contract because it is already a month in) and you would end up losing ~30 BTC. If difficulty goes up by 1% then revenue would exceed maintenance for the rest of the contract, however after 162 days you would have lost ~14 BTC. In order to have any kind of ROI on this contract you would need to have difficulty decrease by ~2% every 2016 blocks (something I would consider extremely unlikely, especially over a 5 month period) which would result in a profit of ~1.9 BTC on a 45 BTC investment or a ~4.22% return.

Source: bitcoinwisdom

Calculations:

Code:

Difficulty Increment: rates above
Electric Price: 0
Pool fee: 0
Hash rate: 42 TH/s
Price: 45 BTC
Hardware power: 0
Start date: 1
Delivery Cost: 0
Setup Cost: 0
Maintain cost: $3,360 per month
BTC/USD: 356
Current difficulty: 39,603,666,252
Adjust time: 1415154631
Block reward: 25
Block generation speed: 600

Your projections are too pessimistic. It remains to be seen what will be the difficulty adjustment for the interested period of time.

What part of my projection are too pessimistic? My calculations assume that the miner would have 100% luck (which is really all you can assume in regards to luck).

From the looks of it bitmine.ch is selling horribly overpriced contracts. If you can find an error in my numbers/assumptions/calculations then please let me know, as I may be interested in the potential for ROI is right.

[erskPeter]

As the difficulty increase miners without a price rise, more miners will be soon forced to shut down. I am not sure we will continue to see the kind of exponential increase forever, of course mine is just a conjecture, as it is yours, nobody knows the outcome for certain. Besides, i am selling the contract just because an unexpected problem and immediate need of liquidity. What is your offer ?

Cheers

[erskPeter]

i am sorry, i messed up the message. This is what i wanted to say :

As the difficulty increases  without a price rise, more miners will be soon forced to shut down. I am not sure we will continue to see the kind of exponential increase forever, of course mine is just a conjecture, as it is yours, nobody knows the outcome for certain. Besides, i am selling the contract just because an unexpected problem and immediate need of liquidity. What is your offer ?

Cheers

[ACCTseller]

i am sorry, i messed up the message. This is what i wanted to say :

As the difficulty increases  without a price rise, more miners will be soon forced to shut down. I am not sure we will continue to see the kind of exponential increase forever, of course mine is just a conjecture, as it is yours, nobody knows the outcome for certain. Besides, i am selling the contract just because an unexpected problem and immediate need of liquidity. What is your offer ?

Cheers

You are correct that we will not see exponential increases forever but I can say that it will likely increase by a good 9% in roughly a week or so and difficulty has increased by at least 10% with very few exceptions this year.

I am not sure you would want to see my offer as it would be well under 10 BTC (while you are asking for 45) nor that you would even take it seriously.

[erskPeter]

i am sorry, i messed up the message. This is what i wanted to say :

As the difficulty increases  without a price rise, more miners will be soon forced to shut down. I am not sure we will continue to see the kind of exponential increase forever, of course mine is just a conjecture, as it is yours, nobody knows the outcome for certain. Besides, i am selling the contract just because an unexpected problem and immediate need of liquidity. What is your offer ?

Cheers

You are correct that we will not see exponential increases forever but I can say that it will likely increase by a good 9% in roughly a week or so and difficulty has increased by at least 10% with very few exceptions this year.

I am not sure you would want to see my offer as it would be well under 10 BTC (while you are asking for 45) nor that you would even take it seriously.

Your observation is correct, although during the last year we witnessed  big changes in the mining scenario. For the time being there aren't new products being released so i am not expecting a massive rise in difficulty.
I'd be willing to accept a reasonable offer, but i am afraid that anything under 10 btc isn't going to make it.

[WeMineCoins]

You'd be wrong in assuming new products wont drop Q1 2015

[padrino]

More seriously, here is the mining revenue over 6 months, it takes as a reference 10% difficulty increase at each round  :

Sure that is the revenue with no maintenance, why don't you use the calculator to put that in as well to provide the expected return since that has a MASSIVE impact on the return, in short it will kill most of the BTC as your original screenshot already showed...

So I took the opportunity to factor in maintenance as you stated, since it is USD against BTC at the time it is due best we can do is use current value... At the 10% you estimate in about 88 days the contract will go negative, what is Bitmine's T&Cs on that, in short are you obligated to pay when the mined coins do not cover maintenance?

I doubt that contract will ever go negative, you are simply spreading FUD.

Really? I used YOUR difficulty estimate increase you used earlier and YOUR maintenance price.. It's basic math and I asked a serious question since i want to understand the details before bidding but if you want to be an asshole then perhaps you should fuck off....

[bidoh]

2BTC

[allinvain]

Why don't you just keep the contract and hope to get back even a small portion because there is no way anyone here is going to give you 62,000 for it. You can get the same amount of hashing power from bitmain (with S4s which are overpriced as well) for $26,250 roughly. It would require 21 S4s though, but someone who had that amount of cash on hand likely has a place to host them.

I won't even bother to bid because as a previous poster said all realistic (and smart) offers would have to be below 10 BTC.

[nothing2seeHere]

The TOS of Bitmine.ch do not actually allow for the contracts to be transferred so you would be risking that any buyer would have the contract revoked and/or given back to the seller

[erskPeter]

48 hours left

[mnmShadyBTC]

Why don't you just keep the contract and hope to get back even a small portion because there is no way anyone here is going to give you 62,000 for it. You can get the same amount of hashing power from bitmain (with S4s which are overpriced as well) for $26,250 roughly. It would require 21 S4s though, but someone who had that amount of cash on hand likely has a place to host them.

I won't even bother to bid because as a previous poster said all realistic (and smart) offers would have to be below 10 BTC.

In order for even a 10 BTC bid to be realistic for the buyer to potentially be able to ROI the price of bitcoin would need to increase substantially (without a corresponding increase in difficulty) so the maintenance (electric) fee will be a lower percentage of mining revenue 

[erskPeter]

Why don't you just keep the contract and hope to get back even a small portion because there is no way anyone here is going to give you 62,000 for it. You can get the same amount of hashing power from bitmain (with S4s which are overpriced as well) for $26,250 roughly. It would require 21 S4s though, but someone who had that amount of cash on hand likely has a place to host them.

I won't even bother to bid because as a previous poster said all realistic (and smart) offers would have to be below 10 BTC.

I don't want 62000 USD for it, i said i will accept a reasonable offer, but 10 btc isn't one. The contract will output much than that in my opinion.

[bidoh]

in my opinion.

[vm_mpn]

Calculation is somewhat approximate and based on average BTC value during length of the contract at $400 with 20% monthly network difficulty adjustment (sorry if I'm risking actual BTC here I can not do 10% even if the actual difficulty will be close to 10% than to 20%)

42 TH/s with $3360 month maintenance and ~20% monthly diff adjustment

Month 1 = $3000
Month 2 = $2400
Month 3 = $1920
Month 4 = $1536
Month 5 = $1230
Month 6 = $980
<= 6 Month Cut Off 

Total: ~$11,000 (27 BTC)


If nothing goes terribly wrong ('it never does') you can expect to earn 26 - 28 BTC  by the cutoff date. It is not 10 BTC contract for sure, but it's not 45 BTC contract either... Stay humble.
 

[ScreamnShout]

Calculation is somewhat approximate and based on average BTC value during length of the contract at $400 with 20% monthly network difficulty adjustment (sorry if I'm risking actual BTC here I can not do 10% even if the actual difficulty will be close to 10% than to 20%)

42 TH/s with $3360 month maintenance and ~20% monthly diff adjustment

Month 1 = $3000
Month 2 = $2400
Month 3 = $1920
Month 4 = $1536
Month 5 = $1230
Month 6 = $980
<= 6 Month Cut Off 

Total: ~$11,000 (27 BTC)


If nothing goes terribly wrong ('it never does') you can expect to earn 26 - 28 BTC  by the cutoff date. It is not 10 BTC contract for sure, but it's not 45 BTC contract either... Stay humble.
 

How did you come up with those revenue numbers? They are very different from above (maybe because you assume the difficulty does not change every two weeks but every 30 days, but even this would not account for the difference).

I would also say that 20% per month is a minimum that difficulty would rise which would work out to a little less then 10% every two weeks (compounded)

[vm_mpn]

I think you are right S... I have been subtracting 20% a month after electric / maintenance fee which is wrong. Actual numbers look much more depressing. Double check me below and see if this is correct (more or less).

42 TH/s  @ $3360 / Month Maintenance ~20% monthly diff adjustment

Month 1 = $6400 - $3360 = $3040
Month 2 = $5120 - $3360 = $1760
Month 3 = $4096 - $3360 = $736
Month 4 = $3076 - $3360 = -$284

[ScreamnShout]

I think you are right S... I have been subtracting 20% a month after electric / maintenance fee which is wrong. Actual numbers look much more depressing. Double check me below and see if this is correct (more or less).

42 TH/s  @ $3360 / Month Maintenance ~20% monthly diff adjustment

Month 1 = $6400 - $3360 = $3040
Month 2 = $5120 - $3360 = $1760
Month 3 = $4096 - $3360 = $736
Month 4 = $3076 - $3360 = -$284

Assuming that there is a difficulty increase of 10% every 2016 blocks (which is slightly more then 20% per month, then I calculate that you would receive ~8.63 BTC in mining revenue assuming 379 BTC/USD price to pay for the maintenance fee.