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coinbiz
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November 09, 2014, 05:44:39 PM
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Erdogan
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November 09, 2014, 05:55:03 PM
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Something interesting I've noticed on Bitstamp and BTC-e, is that a large number of tiny orders can easily sway the price of bitcoin up/down by roughly 1-2%.

I'm just curious as to what formula is being used to determine the actual price per coin?  Sure, the price of 1 BTC is how much someone is willing to pay for the 1 BTC with their fiat, but there are obviously differences in how the exchanges allow price movements to occur.  

I've seen several price movements where the price will dip when there are 10 tiny sell orders of .03-.06 BTC set under the current market price.  I've also seen the price jump with 10 very small buy orders of .03-.06 BTC set slightly over the going market price.  

Would it be possible to coordinate a dip in price across exchanges by simply setting a massive number of small limit sells lower than the current market price?  And then coordinating a slightly lower massive sell, and so on?  Are the exchanges prepared for that type of manipulation?  

I think that's the essence of what happened when Mt. Gox drove up the price last year, but it was a flaw in how bitcoin price is calculated across the board, which is why other exchanges were impacted as well.  

Any thoughts on this?  Anyone interested in taking part in a group experiment? Wink

There is no price calculation, the current price is simply the price of the last trade, different on all trading platforms. You can not do much with many small trades, but if you have a lot to buy for or to sell, you can affect the price and drag the traders along. I would not call it manipulation, though.

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November 09, 2014, 06:24:14 PM
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Little orders only affect the price if there is a big gap between the buy and sell order prices. Otherwise they hardly make a dent on the price
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November 09, 2014, 07:29:02 PM
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It's really hard. I remember that wolong guy in IRC trying to cordinate price changes ant it ended up a mess. Unless it's a circle of whales that trust each other and act in constant cooperation, its really hard.
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November 10, 2014, 04:09:00 AM
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Guys make no mistake... We can all join forces now and if each of us and other bitcoiners only buy ONE bitcoin each we will surely be able to bring bitcoin up a few hundred dollars if we all do it pretty close to the same time.

I will keep spamming this message until Jan 1st 2015 a hour after midnight when we should all buy a bitcoin and shoot the price to the moon!
Start saving up guys!
Jan 1st 2015 1:00am !!! Lets do something to really help bitcoin !!!
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November 10, 2014, 07:26:08 PM
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Guys make no mistake... We can all join forces now and if each of us and other bitcoiners only buy ONE bitcoin each we will surely be able to bring bitcoin up a few hundred dollars if we all do it pretty close to the same time.

I will keep spamming this message until Jan 1st 2015 a hour after midnight when we should all buy a bitcoin and shoot the price to the moon!
Start saving up guys!
Jan 1st 2015 1:00am !!! Lets do something to really help bitcoin !!!

That doesn't work. Few people here can afford an entire Bitcoin in sync with a lot of other people at the same time... even if such an operation was possible, it's not sustainable, to save bitcoin, we need to give to the people reasons to use it first.
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November 10, 2014, 08:02:57 PM
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All markets are subjects to actors that try to make an easy profit but they can burn their wings in trying to do so

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November 10, 2014, 11:29:39 PM
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It's really hard. I remember that wolong guy in IRC trying to cordinate price changes ant it ended up a mess. Unless it's a circle of whales that trust each other and act in constant cooperation, its really hard.

I agree with this except it is easier than most would think. Collusion makes it more difficult than it needs to be by over complicating things, but it allows for the capital required to do it. If any one person has enough money, manipulation can be very easy when done right.

No, you can't just dump 100k BTC and hold the price at $2, nor can you make a $10M buy and hold the price at $1000. That's just how to run out of capital quick. You must make the market believe that is now the price, which means steady, well supported movements rather than one big move.

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November 11, 2014, 12:16:33 AM
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If you have tons of coins(real or fake ones) you can do it more easily than 10 months ago.

And easier as lower is the volume.


Considering how low is BTC volume comparet to other market, you can think how easy it is.

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November 11, 2014, 12:50:37 AM
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I suggest you just get on with it, I'm sure the traders here will be happy to take over your capital.


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November 11, 2014, 01:04:34 AM
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Collusion is difficult because there comes a point where one or more colluders can break his bond and do the opposite and screw everyone else. This is how the pump an dump scams run with alt coins.

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November 11, 2014, 02:59:02 AM
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do you think the history would replay?

/done/.
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November 11, 2014, 06:09:24 AM
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You have to have a decent amount of money, btc to really swing the price.
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December 20, 2014, 01:42:21 PM
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You have to have a decent amount of money, btc to really swing the price.

Thousands of BTC allows you to have a chance to swing the price and if you dump your btc in a rallying market, the price may stabilizes or go down a little bit. But when you will buy back you are likely to pay a higher price than the price you got when you sold.

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December 20, 2014, 10:44:41 PM
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It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade
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December 20, 2014, 10:50:48 PM
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It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade

Right now bitcoin has had a $21,173,900 volume of trades today. Moving the price for any significant period of time would cost a fortune today.
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December 20, 2014, 10:55:43 PM
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It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade

Right now bitcoin has had a $21,173,900 volume of trades today. Moving the price for any significant period of time would cost a fortune today.
Assuming that your figure is correct, you would probably need to throw at least seven figures (in excess of a million dollars) to potentially move the market in any meaningful amount. That is really just too much money to risk in order to make a few bucks
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December 20, 2014, 11:00:51 PM
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It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade

Right now bitcoin has had a $21,173,900 volume of trades today. Moving the price for any significant period of time would cost a fortune today.
Assuming that your figure is correct, you would probably need to throw at least seven figures (in excess of a million dollars) to potentially move the market in any meaningful amount. That is really just too much money to risk in order to make a few bucks

It depends how accurate coinmarketcap's figure is because I cut and pasted the figure directly off it. There must be quite a few millionaires here, but I doubt they would be willing to risk a million to make a few bucks when they can already live off what they already have for the rest of their lives.
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December 21, 2014, 12:04:12 AM
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Maybe the large bears club with companies like Pyapal. I remember, when paypal announced it, then the prices went up by 50-70$, which could have made those people millionaires.

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December 21, 2014, 01:26:48 AM
 #20

The most realistic option for price manipulation IMO would be for the operator of a major exchange to add fake fiat or BTC to their orderbooks to shift the price. That would still be very risky - see mt gox.

Alternatively, a ver big mining operation might attempt to drive competitors out of business by selling as much as possible to suppress the price, but that, again, seems pretty risky to me.

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