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Author Topic: When will Bitcoin Difficulty Reach 100 Billion?  (Read 2274 times)
Valzador
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November 10, 2014, 01:26:02 AM
 #1

As title says.

I'm doing some calculations before I buy some mining hardware, any help would be great thanks. Cheesy

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November 10, 2014, 06:22:00 AM
 #2

It's difficult to predict
Best bet is to assume the average difficulty increase over the last 25 increases to get a rough idea of the time it will take to get to 100 billion from this difficulty.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

My best guess is late 2015 but it could be significantly faster if more hash or chips are released by different entrants into the mining space and new competitors.
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November 10, 2014, 04:37:00 PM
 #3

Might take longer than 2015. Linear extrapolations of where we are now absent price prediction are unlikely to be on the ball.

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November 10, 2014, 08:45:34 PM
 #4

I guess 19 November, so still 9 days


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November 10, 2014, 09:05:53 PM
 #5

I guess 19 November, so still 9 days

Impossible, the next retarget is in 8 days approx, the estimated difficulty is 42.. we won't even reach 50M in 2014..

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November 10, 2014, 09:05:58 PM
 #6

probably in the start of 2015, or around there.
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November 11, 2014, 05:53:38 PM
 #7

If bitcoin difficulty is going to increase by 20% every round, it will be reached in late Jan 2015.
If bitcoin difficulty is going to increase by 10% every round, it will be reached in late Mar 2015.
If bitcoin difficulty is going to increase by 5% every round, it will be reached in early Aug 2015.

FYI: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Given the recent increasing rate, I am more lean towards a high single digit increasing rate ie. we may have a difficulty of 100 billion in mid 2015.

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November 11, 2014, 06:31:56 PM
 #8

probably in the start of 2015, or around there.

Agree.  Grin
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November 11, 2014, 08:01:27 PM
 #9

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

I would assume that a difficulty of 100million will be broken around this time next year (2015), may be sooner if new miners come out.
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November 11, 2014, 09:19:06 PM
 #10

damn each rise, whats the point in mining..

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November 11, 2014, 09:57:01 PM
 #11

damn each rise, whats the point in mining..


hmmm, well looking at my ant farm i am thinking that small time mining operations are almost over with.
we require a new chip at this stage. maybe the c1 can keep it going a little longer.
maybe sometime next year unless new technology comes out.
of course if the price value of bitcoin goes up then people probably be happy mining fractions of bitcoins a month.
i think is possible the day is coming that owning or mining a full bitcoin might become more rare and people will only be able to get fractions of bitcoin.
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November 11, 2014, 10:05:52 PM
 #12

I guess it highly depends on how the price develops over the next months and possibly years. If it is even declining further, there may be a significant decrease in global hash rate. Of course it stabilizes at the relative 'sweet spot', but that exact spot is going down with every dollar Bitcoin loses in value!

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November 12, 2014, 12:31:01 PM
 #13

With all the big data centres popping up, I guess the solo mining with Asic are also going to be over soon.

The only way for people to mine BTC would be some sort of cloud mining service.  Sad

You should re-consider buying mining hardware for Bitcoin mining, rather buy something you can mining for Alt coins.  Wink

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November 12, 2014, 12:51:39 PM
 #14

dont buy hardware, they will never roi or just hold your 'preorders' Roll Eyes
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November 23, 2014, 05:16:41 PM
 #15

I predicted 160 days I will change to 200 days.

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November 23, 2014, 08:39:46 PM
 #16

Very difficult to say, as the hardware may take a big leap forward and change everything. The ASIC history is not long enough to reliably predict how fast the technological advances will happen. Add to that Bitcoin price effect on mining and it all becomes very complicated.

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November 23, 2014, 11:44:17 PM
 #17

I predicted 160 days I will change to 200 days.

It would be interesting because at ~100bil difficulty my electrical costs would =mining revenue from S3, assuming BTC at the same level and NOT counting savings from heating, which is probably a correct approach since we are talking about April-June 2015 period.
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November 24, 2014, 03:45:57 AM
 #18

I predicted 160 days I will change to 200 days.

Agree with you

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November 25, 2014, 05:45:54 AM
 #19

I guess could be 2015-2016 as more and more big data center comes in to play mining and get rich game. As the price goes up enough for bitcoin this will give more incentives for more new ones to appear as well as the current ones to upgrade more.

Although the most interesting thing is the fact on bitcoinwisdom calculation is predicting that it will go down of course won't know what happens since 7.9 days before adjustment at the time of writing.

The fact that even seeing that there is a potential drop in difficulty is definitely something I never would have thought I would see for bitcoin.

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