Predictious users had correctly predicted that the Republicans would win the Senate and the House (as you can see below the shares were traded above m
BTC5 for a long time, this means that the market valued the possibility that Republican would win more than the possibility that Democrats would win).
Prediction markets are often more accurate than polls because people placing money on an outcome are usually fairly confident with it, otherwise they wouldn’t be betting money on it! In addition to this powerful incentive to predict right, prediction markets preserve anonymity, and the results then reflect more realistic assessments of people’s opinions, as they do not worry about reputation, authority or acceptability.
So what about the Presidential Primaries?
So far
Rand Paul and
Hillary Clinton are the favorites (Hillary is also at the top for the
Presidential election market).