RAOUL PAL: Bitcoin Is Worth $1,000,000

[Flashman]

Well I'm sure if you were trying to "sell" internet to anyone in 1990, telling them it would have an effective "GDP" of 2 Trillion by now they'd be yelling ponzi.

[jdany]

These financial people are inventing formulas to value bitcoin.
The best ones I've see, use gold's supply/demand as the closest comparison.

I don't think any model is close enough to be predictable.
BTC valuation will be somewhere between 0 and 1,000,000.

[Flashman]

Yah, exact analogs don't exist. It would be nice if they did and you could just bang in numbers and come up with "Bitcoin is worth $15,763.24" ... and get the same answer twice.

One thing to bear in mind though is that the Internet is still in an economic expansion phase, 8-10% per year, so any gains of BTC in penetration on internet, get amplified by that also.

[LeMiner]

total bitcoin or one bitcoin?
one bitcoin will never reach 1 million $, let's focus on the 10k $

I have done a calculation before that if all fiat was pooled into Bitcoin one Bitcoin (after all are mined) would be worth 2.6m$, total bitcoin market cap is currently already at $ 5.2 Billion $.

[Elwar]

If anyone had actually read the article, he is comparing Bitcoin to gold. He is basically saying that if Bitcoin reached just a third of the money in gold we would be at $1 million each.

Just like it was said before. If you take a % of a huge industry, you can get some interesting numbers.

The great thing about Bitcoin is we will be taking a % of gold, Western Union, credit cards, payroll services, etc...
plenty of potential

[SpanishSoldier]

Interesting interview posted on BI

http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pal-on-bitcoin-2014-11

Raol Pal...

There's a finite amount that's been mined. The rest is underground. We kind of know how long it's going to take before all the gold is mined or before all the bitcoins. Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this-but I don't mind this-I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000.

I read this logic that Bitcoin may equal 1M USD long time ago on this forum...

-snip-

I have a statistical explanation why 1BTC may equal 1M USD in future...

Value of 1BTC (around figure)

2009 => 10^-2 USD
2010 => 10^-1 USD
2011 => 10⁰ USD
2012 => 10¹ USD
2013 => 10² USD
2014 => 10³ USD
2015 => 10⁴ USD
2016 => 10⁵ USD
2017 => 10⁶ USD

--- Early Adoption Ends Here and The Price Stabilizes ---

^^^Can u believe this ?

[hilariousandco]

The reporter said:"bizarre digital cryptocurrency"

I like that term  . Might use it myself.

Predictions are meaningless without a time frame.
If bitcoins are going to be worth that much in 2400 AD, I really couldn't care less.

They're still meaningless even with one. Nobody can predict what bitcoin is going to be worth in the near future. It could be 1 million or zero or anywhere in between.

[cr1776]

Well I'm sure if you were trying to "sell" internet to anyone in 1990, telling them it would have an effective "GDP" of 2 Trillion by now they'd be yelling ponzi.

Shoot, people were saying that pretty much through all the 1990s!  ;-)   "Fad".  "Unsafe". etc  

[Flashman]

The reporter said:"bizarre digital cryptocurrency"

I like that term  . Might use it myself.

Maybe we need to start running ads. "Liberate yourself from financial system tyranny with this one bizarre trick."




Edit: Though I don't see how it's more bizarre than any other digital or cryptocurrency, to those used to conventional currency it's bizarre, it's the difference between saying "A bizarre long necked giraffe" which sounds rather typical of all giraffes, rather than "The giraffe is a bizarre long necked animal"  because among other animals it's bizarre.

[Beliathon]

Those rectangular scraps of cotton with inked symbols declaring faith in the state (obedience) and god (superstition) are grossly overvalued if you think you can trade 1,000,000 of them for ANY amount of bitcoin (real money).

How many machine-replica papyrus scrolls would you give me for 1 BTC? How many sheep? How many pounds of grain? Oh wait, who gives a damn.

Bitcoin is worth

[SmoothCurves]

Well I'm sure if you were trying to "sell" internet to anyone in 1990, telling them it would have an effective "GDP" of 2 Trillion by now they'd be yelling ponzi.

That is a great way of putting it.

[1Referee]

In what world is this guy living 

I will sell him my Bitcoins for $25,000 so he later can sell them for $1,000,000 That's what I call a perfect deal!

Let's first get the price to $2000 then we can talk about this subject again.

[Zubilica]

In what world is this guy living 

I will sell him my Bitcoins for $25,000 so he later can sell them for $1,000,000 That's what I call a perfect deal!

Let's first get the price to $2000 then we can talk about this subject again.

10k seems reasonable to me )

[Feri22]

total bitcoin or one bitcoin?
one bitcoin will never reach 1 million $, let's focus on the 10k $

Read this so many times, 1 BTC will never be 10, 100, 1000 USD ...all that happened already...I guess the 1 000 000 USD is more difficult to get, however you can't possibly know if it will reach 1 000 000 USD, so never say never...it CAN happen

[Flashman]

Maybe since bitcoin is messianic money, then in order to save us from roman oppression the matrix bankers, it has to die first.

[s.mouse]

I can never take these wild predictions seriously. Where does he get this value from? He's just made it up.

[FeedbackLoop]

Maybe since bitcoin is messianic money, then in order to save us from roman oppression the matrix bankers, it has to die first.

...you mean take a weekend break? Also it would sacrifice itself to itself. You might be unto something...  Maybe a massive bug with a controversial fix that would take 48 hours for the network to decide and converge unto. Also, afterwards,  we would all have to cut some part of the genitalia of babies to show our allegiance to the resurrected crypto. I am doing it right?
 

[Flashman]

Though it's been pronounced dead 3 times in last 2 years... once in spring 13 when we had a nasty fork, once in fall 13 when SR 1.0 closed, and once early in 2014 when gox imploded.

[wesk1212]

Tell him to buy some of his own then else go fu** himself

[Ellery_Davies]

I agree with posts complaining that the comparison to Gold is confusing and off-point. But the claim that each bitcoin may soon be worth hundreds of thousands is computationally reasonable. It is not at all a stretch...

Raol Pal echoes my philosophy. It all hinges on broad adoption, which, for me, seems a fait accompli. We’re not there yet—but the network effect is underway.

If one can convince themselves that Bitcoin will be at the heart of (at least) a universal money transmitting system—not necessarily a recognized currency—then the value is determined by the daily float needed to lubricate the wheels of commerce. That is, just how thin must we shave the 21 million coins so that consumers can buy gum, gifts and homes and so that businesses can move oil, airplanes and software?

I posted this same comment in a LinkedIN group (also discussing the Raol Pal interview), to which Michael Bouchier asked: “How could Bitcoin be at the heart of a universal money transmitting system, and NOT a recognized currency?” Good question! I have observed three schools of thought on Bitcoin:

1. Extreme Skepticism—even derision: Since Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and no authority requires Bitcoin denominated taxes, it is simply a Ponzi scheme...a house of cards.

2. Money Transmitting Instrument: Since the block chain offers bookkeeping and simple division (pocket change) for a provably limited resource, Bitcoin is supremely useful as a low cost money transmitting instrument. But like a debit card or an Amazon gift card, there is some other "real" money that backs it, such as dollars, Yuan or Pesos. It is a money instrument, but not the money itself.

3. The Libertarian View:

Bitcoin is both a transmitting instrument and the money itself. It derives intrinsic value from supply, demand and its own critical mass (the fact that a growing body of individuals value ownership and believe that someone else will value their stake).

In this view, items can be priced in Bitcoins independent of national currency. The wild fluctuations will lessen as a growing number of individuals hold their bitcoins pending their own spending needs, rather than converting immediately into their own regional currency.

Some individuals believe that Bitcoin may eventually destabilize central banks and national treasuries. (If this happens, it does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin would threaten governments or even their ability to tax. It only hastens the redundancy of centralized bodies for monetary policy and control). New York is chomping-at-the-bit to reign in cryptocurrency and issue “Bit licenses” (inadvertent pun). But, in fact, our nation’s Federal Reserve has issued signs of concluding that Bitcoin may represent more of an opportunity than a threat. Nowhere is it written that a prosperous and free nation must control its monetary policy. Ascribing durable value to something that is traded and prized, and yet cannot be printed or unreasonably leveraged may build trust and respect.

Like Raoul Pal, my view leans toward #3. I have also speculated on the natural value of a Bitcoin:

• Calculate Bitcoin Value: Modest assumptions: http://awildduck.com/?p=3223
• Bitcoin Adoption: Series of reactions: http://awildduck.com/?p=3121