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Question: Sell off is imminent?  (Voting closed: November 18, 2014, 04:55:52 AM)
Yes - 17 (29.3%)
No - 16 (27.6%)
GTFO - 25 (43.1%)
Total Voters: 58

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knight22
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November 13, 2014, 04:55:52 AM
 #1

How on earth this rally can be sustainable?  Huh

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jonald_fyookball
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November 13, 2014, 05:11:10 AM
 #2

Short term traders will be closing their long positions and taking profits, of course.
So what?

No rally is sustainable forever.  At some point the rally will transition to sideways market, or
it could (less likely) crash back down.

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November 13, 2014, 05:32:16 AM
 #3

I think a crash back to the mean would make good sense... this move to 480 was just to knock out short positions! Now that they are liquidated heading back near 300 makes sense but bitcoin doesn't make sense yet so we'll see loll.

Def made a nice chunk on this upward move though, awesome stuff!!
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November 13, 2014, 05:34:51 AM
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I think a crash back to the mean would make good sense... this move to 480 was just to knock out short positions! Now that they are liquidated heading back near 300 makes sense but bitcoin doesn't make sense yet so we'll see loll.

Def made a nice chunk on this upward move though, awesome stuff!!

Shorts that were open yesterday closed a long time ago. We literally went from $360 to $485 in a day - do you really think there were many people who kept funding their short positions all the way from $360 to $485?
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November 13, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
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How on earth this rally can be sustainable?  Huh
I suspect you've been around long enough in the community to see several such rallies and crashes in the past? This is just Day-1.
fewcoins
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November 13, 2014, 05:42:41 AM
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I think a crash back to the mean would make good sense... this move to 480 was just to knock out short positions! Now that they are liquidated heading back near 300 makes sense but bitcoin doesn't make sense yet so we'll see loll.

Def made a nice chunk on this upward move though, awesome stuff!!

Shorts that were open yesterday closed a long time ago. We literally went from $360 to $485 in a day - do you really think there were many people who kept funding their short positions all the way from $360 to $485?

Completely depends on how much you are trading with... to be wiped out of your position over less than $100 that means you had 5-10coins and used full margin with no side money
Cortex7
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November 13, 2014, 05:43:19 AM
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You got some low hanging bid orders? Cheesy

I would get 80% in if I were you.

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November 13, 2014, 06:17:36 AM
 #8

I think a crash back to the mean would make good sense... this move to 480 was just to knock out short positions! Now that they are liquidated heading back near 300 makes sense but bitcoin doesn't make sense yet so we'll see loll.

Def made a nice chunk on this upward move though, awesome stuff!!

Shorts that were open yesterday closed a long time ago. We literally went from $360 to $485 in a day - do you really think there were many people who kept funding their short positions all the way from $360 to $485?

Completely depends on how much you are trading with... to be wiped out of your position over less than $100 that means you had 5-10coins and used full margin with no side money
It really just depends on your strategy and the way you trade.

There's way more volume on OKCoin futures (not feeless, volume is relevant and real) than Bitfinex. Since the only exchange which really had an affect on the market price today was OKCoin, we can analyze this based upon what was going on there. Interestingly, OKCoin itself reached $485 or so, but futures never really surpassed $475 for anything more than a few buys, despite leading the way most of the day.

Anyone who isn't taking a long-term approach and still kept leveraged shorts (unleveraged shorts or barely leveraged shorts, à la Bitfinex don't really count)  in the entire day has brass balls and a brass brain. Right now we're at an interesting spot because the long positions have slowed down and are now trailing the market price. (Potentially indicating the big boys are done buying for a little while - one can assume that a whale will take long futures positions prior to going on a buying spree like this, to minimize slippage or even potentially profit from the price increase throughout the day.) Regardless, I still think it's a bit spazzy and stubborn to short today, even now - we had the same slowdown we're experiencing right now several hours ago at around $430, before continuing the rally.-
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November 13, 2014, 10:03:48 AM
 #9

It really just depends on your strategy and the way you trade.

There's way more volume on OKCoin futures (not feeless, volume is relevant and real) than Bitfinex. Since the only exchange which really had an affect on the market price today was OKCoin, we can analyze this based upon what was going on there. Interestingly, OKCoin itself reached $485 or so, but futures never really surpassed $475 for anything more than a few buys, despite leading the way most of the day.

Anyone who isn't taking a long-term approach and still kept leveraged shorts (unleveraged shorts or barely leveraged shorts, à la Bitfinex don't really count)  in the entire day has brass balls and a brass brain. Right now we're at an interesting spot because the long positions have slowed down and are now trailing the market price. (Potentially indicating the big boys are done buying for a little while - one can assume that a whale will take long futures positions prior to going on a buying spree like this, to minimize slippage or even potentially profit from the price increase throughout the day.) Regardless, I still think it's a bit spazzy and stubborn to short today, even now - we had the same slowdown we're experiencing right now several hours ago at around $430, before continuing the rally.-

Excellent post.

One question: Didn't really get into the okc futures situation yet. Those are integrated into their regular market/order book, or do they run in parallel? Also, those are the ones with 20x leverage, correct?

One remark: Not really so much disagreeing with what you say, since you write about yesterday's price action only, and there's little doubt to me that was (mainly) driven by China, but, because it's a favorite subject of mine I'll add one thing: by raw volume alone, Stamp/Finex shouldn't matter anymore at all. In reality however, the move up from 275 can be divided in three parts so far, in my view: 275 as bottom got a "preliminary" confirmation by the "bearwhale" action on Bitstamp. The first major retracement was stopped in its tracks on finex (with the major buys on Oct 30). And now, Okc is kicking it into overdrive. Like I said, probably not even something we disagree on, judging by your above comment, just wanted to paint the whole picture of the recovery so far, as I see it.

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November 13, 2014, 11:16:45 AM
 #10

This is the real Bitcoin market - pumping and dumping! The Chinese understand the true value of Bitcoin - it's a great method for extracting wealth from starry eyed western idiots with too much money. You know, the ones who will buy at the peak, hodl through the down trend then sell in despair at the bottom.
RookieMonster
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November 13, 2014, 11:33:56 AM
 #11

It's dull and not at all sexy but this spike may have much more to with Single's Day in Mainland China and a sense that with 'dark' use of Bitcoin being curtailed it stands a better chance of moving into the mainstream.

Bare (or bear) in mind that Single's Day is the second largest e-commerce day (after Black Friday) on the globe and a growing proportion of online trade in China is performed with BTC - increasingly using just-in-time means that buy the BTC at market rates.
belmonty
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November 13, 2014, 11:40:06 AM
 #12

It's dull and not at all sexy but this spike may have much more to with Single's Day in Mainland China 

What is this Single's Day?
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November 13, 2014, 11:41:21 AM
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It's dull and not at all sexy but this spike may have much more to with Single's Day in Mainland China and a sense that with 'dark' use of Bitcoin being curtailed it stands a better chance of moving into the mainstream.

Bare (or bear) in mind that Single's Day is the second largest e-commerce day (after Black Friday) on the globe and a growing proportion of online trade in China is performed with BTC - increasingly using just-in-time means that buy the BTC at market rates.

Not sure about that, Bitcoin can't be used to buy things in China, it's banned for that.
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November 13, 2014, 12:48:00 PM
 #14

are you sure? good sources do not confirm it!

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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November 13, 2014, 01:37:19 PM
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are you sure? good sources do not confirm it!

 Grin

Bitcoin is not banned but it can't be used to pay for stuff, that's the reason why Baidu dropped it. Unless they changed that too at some time.
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November 13, 2014, 05:58:27 PM
 #16

This is the real Bitcoin market - pumping and dumping! The Chinese understand the true value of Bitcoin - it's a great method for extracting wealth from starry eyed western idiots with too much money. You know, the ones who will buy at the peak, hodl through the down trend then sell in despair at the bottom.

Too much greed... Too many of you hoping to get rich quick... This won't go over well soon.

Should be a very interesting downtrend coming into play this weekend.
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November 13, 2014, 06:14:46 PM
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are you sure? good sources do not confirm it!

 Grin

Bitcoin is not banned but it can't be used to pay for stuff, that's the reason why Baidu dropped it. Unless they changed that too at some time.

sometimes i feel like you can't use it in the UK either! but being the permabull that I am, I just take it as a good sign that it means we are still really near the beginning Smiley

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November 13, 2014, 06:43:25 PM
 #18



Too much greed... Too many of you hoping to get rich quick... This won't go over well soon.


Well how can people not be greedy? You saw people getting rich hand over fist in crypto in 2013 and alot of noobs (myself included) jumped in 2014 hoping for the same and instead ended up buying their bags.

I think the reality is Bitcoin whales much prefer this volatility in siphoning off other people's wealth rather than seeing Bitcoin itself rise and bring more "new wealth" along with it.

All this talk all of a sudden too of colored coins and sidechains is for Bitcoin technocrats to protect their money and power by harvesting all the innovation and ideas the alt market has made in the last year and taking it for themselves.
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November 13, 2014, 07:06:00 PM
 #19

Well there's your answer lol...
4 hour red indicator and still running strong, expect to see 360 the upcoming hours.

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November 13, 2014, 08:46:08 PM
 #20

Well there's your answer lol...
4 hour red indicator and still running strong, expect to see 360 the upcoming hours.

380 was already hit... Expect to see 340 soon

As I have been saying this weekend will be very very interesting.


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