Let's put the Willy bot myth to rest!!!

[alexeft]

Hi all, I got all the datapoints from here
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

and made this




It's the daily blockchain transaction volume in USD for all bitcoin time. In order to avoid those huge spikes from above,
I averaged each value with its previous 200.

As is obvious, there has a huge ramp up starting on October 2013, I guess it was the Chinese entering.
Now we seem to be leveling on the trend line that started on April 2013.

Now, Willy was only trading on gox without any real money (USD or BTC) and hence couldn't have caused that huge ramp!

Your comments please!

[Wilhelm]

Could you make the same chart up to 17/4/2013.
You might uncover a pattern that is hidden due to scaling.
This might provide insight in the WillyBot myth.

Or provide a logarithmic chart.

My 0.02c

[Hyena]

If the hacker was constantly pumping bitcoins out from magic-the-gathering-online-exchange then the volume seems plausible. If the hacker tumbled the coins then the volume makes even more sense.

[alexeft]

Could you make the same chart up to 17/4/2013.
You might uncover a pattern that is hidden due to scaling.
This might provide insight in the WillyBot myth.

Or provide a logarithmic chart.

My 0.02c

There you go. What did you mean to say?

[Wilhelm]

06-2011 looks like a mini 02-2013

11-2011 looks like 04-2013 (the hump profile)

Interresting

[alexeft]

If the hacker was constantly pumping bitcoins out from magic-the-gathering-online-exchange then the volume seems plausible. If the hacker tumbled the coins then the volume makes even more sense.

I mean to say that the coins willy was buying and selling only existed in the gox system. Perhaps some were really pumped out into the blockchain and that's why they were "lost" and gox went bankrupt!

[esse83]

If the hacker was constantly pumping bitcoins out from magic-the-gathering-online-exchange then the volume seems plausible. If the hacker tumbled the coins then the volume makes even more sense.

I mean to say that the coins willy was buying and selling only existed in the gox system. Perhaps some were really pumped out into the blockchain and that's why they were "lost" and gox went bankrupt!

Not sure I quite understand this, but wouldn't it rise simply from the fact that the price was rising? If so then why does it matter if it hit the blockchain or not? The same volume would simply equal higher USD volume because of price increasing (which could have been done with the fake bots at gox).

[alexeft]

If the hacker was constantly pumping bitcoins out from magic-the-gathering-online-exchange then the volume seems plausible. If the hacker tumbled the coins then the volume makes even more sense.

I mean to say that the coins willy was buying and selling only existed in the gox system. Perhaps some were really pumped out into the blockchain and that's why they were "lost" and gox went bankrupt!

Not sure I quite understand this, but wouldn't it rise simply from the fact that the price was rising? If so then why does it matter if it hit the blockchain or not? The same volume would simply equal higher USD volume because of price increasing (which could have been done with the fake bots at gox).

If I wanted to send you $1k at $500 per BTC, I would send you 2 coins. If the price doubled, I would only need to send you 1 coin, right? If the majority of the transactions are done like that,
then people are actually sending a lot of USD to each other, which is what the graphs show.

[esse83]

If the hacker was constantly pumping bitcoins out from magic-the-gathering-online-exchange then the volume seems plausible. If the hacker tumbled the coins then the volume makes even more sense.

I mean to say that the coins willy was buying and selling only existed in the gox system. Perhaps some were really pumped out into the blockchain and that's why they were "lost" and gox went bankrupt!

Not sure I quite understand this, but wouldn't it rise simply from the fact that the price was rising? If so then why does it matter if it hit the blockchain or not? The same volume would simply equal higher USD volume because of price increasing (which could have been done with the fake bots at gox).

If I wanted to send you $1k at $500 per BTC, I would send you 2 coins. If the price doubled, I would only need to send you 1 coin, right? If the majority of the transactions are done like that,
then people are actually sending a lot of USD to each other, which is what the graphs show.

But that only means that either the transaction volume pr day was the same, or it increased (which is extremely normal in bubble season).. so naturally USD/day would increase as each bitcoin represents a higher value of usd. Was your point that because the value increased the volume should drop because less bitcoin was needed to accomplish the same usd amount? I would think a ton of people would want to sell and thus we do not have a decrease in volume but an increase, or perhaps I misunderstood you (sorry if thats the case). Still I fail to see how this has any bearing on the bots at gox.

[alexeft]

I am saying that the gox bots perhaps were influencing price, but they couldn't have any influence over the blockchain as real bitcoins are needed to do that.
I am also saying that people were mostly buying or selling fixed amounts of USD via bitcoin (ie what they had in their hands).

If the above are true, then a lot of people were moving a lot of USD through the blockchain, almost regardless of what the bots did.

I hope I said it better. I am checking my conclusions myself.

[alexeft]

11-2011 looks like 04-2013 (the hump profile)

The moustache as others have said! 

[esse83]

I am saying that the gox bots perhaps were influencing price, but they couldn't have any influence over the blockchain as real bitcoins are needed to do that.
I am also saying that people were mostly buying or selling fixed amounts of USD via bitcoin (ie what they had in their hands).

If the above are true, then a lot of people were moving a lot of USD through the blockchain, almost regardless of what the bots did.

I hope I said it better. I am checking my conclusions myself.

There are two things here I don't comprehend;

"I am also saying that people were mostly buying or selling fixed amounts of USD via bitcoin (ie what they had in their hands). "

Not sure what this means or why it matters when it comes to usd/day which is simply bitcoins going through the blockchain (total volume) + the value it had at the time according to the exchanges.

"but they couldn't have any influence over the blockchain as real bitcoins are needed to do that."

Thats a given, but still I fail to see how this bears on the usd/day (its after all just bitcoin volume converted to usd).

[alexeft]

See my post above about paying with $500 per and $1k per BTC. The USD amount to be paid remains the same ie $1k in both cases. Suppose now the bots raise the BTC price artificially. I would have to move even less BTC. BUT the cumulative value in USD rose substantially (what all people moved, not just me). Since the bots can't use the blockchain more or less, it was real people moving real value through the blockchain.

Hence, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, the price of BTC rose.

One more thing. At the peak an average of $100mil was moving per day, and now it's half that. The BTC price is one third of the peak. On would think that it should be half, but we must consider that a lot less BTC existed back then, hence lower supply, hence higher price. This could account in part for the fact that the current price of BTC isn't half what it was, while the demand is.

I hope it's clearer!  

[Mieehayii]

this not myth, just a joke.

[derpinheimer]

I have no idea how the chart you posted has any relation to Willy Bot.. a bot that traded on a single exchange, and bought up REAL BTC with FAKE USD.

[Cluster2k]

Which came first, the alleged fraud at MtGox or the price rocketing upwards?  Could it have been that the alleged fraud at MtGox got speculators interested in buying bitcoins thus helped to pump the price even higher?  It's too easy in the bitcoin world to set up an exchange, create fake trades and then declare 'lolz, haxxors got us' when people come to take money out of the fractional reserve exchange.

[TinaK]

During the 2014.02-04, the impact of mtgox bankruptcy is expanding, BTC transaction volume is huge.

[alexeft]

During the 2014.02-04, the impact of mtgox bankruptcy is expanding, BTC transaction volume is huge.

And of course willy can't have done that! People did!