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Author Topic: When's the next difficulty change?  (Read 1834 times)
zpinto
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May 17, 2011, 12:58:02 PM
 #1

Hi!
When's the next difficulty change. How much will it raise, 40%, 50%,etc?

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proudhon
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May 17, 2011, 02:06:25 PM
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Should be sometime today.  A few hours maybe?  And, it looks as though the difficulty is going to increase by around 50%.
VPoro
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May 17, 2011, 02:09:01 PM
 #3

From BitcoinCharts:

Estimated   233521 in 374 blks
Blocks/hour   11.11 / 366 s

Which means that there's going to be an increase in difficulty in ~34 hours, and the difficulty will increase by 48%.

Donations are always appreciated - 13skSo2Wes5PEdwCXkP5QZLUw5A7oNtrkQ
proudhon
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May 17, 2011, 02:18:45 PM
 #4

From BitcoinCharts:

Estimated   233521 in 374 blks
Blocks/hour   11.11 / 366 s

Which means that there's going to be an increase in difficulty in ~34 hours, and the difficulty will increase by 48%.

I was only off by a day and half.  Tongue
bcpokey
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May 18, 2011, 05:45:30 PM
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I'm curious about peoples predictions of what happens next.

Difficulty is bumping up 50%, meaning drastically reduced mining rates for... everyone. Price seems to have stabilized / capped around 7USD per bitcoin for now.

Will the price shoot up to offset the difficulty again or will it remain stable/drop in response to people dropping out of the bitcoin game?
FooDSt4mP
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May 18, 2011, 05:54:34 PM
 #6

I'm curious about peoples predictions of what happens next.

Difficulty is bumping up 50%, meaning drastically reduced mining rates for... everyone. Price seems to have stabilized / capped around 7USD per bitcoin for now.

Will the price shoot up to offset the difficulty again or will it remain stable/drop in response to people dropping out of the bitcoin game?

Price depends highly on demand.  If price stays near 7, or declines, difficulty will not grow, and may actually shrink slightly.  If enough buyers show up to drive the price up, difficulty will continue to increase.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
tomcollins
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May 18, 2011, 05:56:28 PM
 #7

I'm curious about peoples predictions of what happens next.

Difficulty is bumping up 50%, meaning drastically reduced mining rates for... everyone. Price seems to have stabilized / capped around 7USD per bitcoin for now.

Will the price shoot up to offset the difficulty again or will it remain stable/drop in response to people dropping out of the bitcoin game?

Price should rise a little due to decreased supply.  Right now there are 10 blocks mined per hour, rather than the 6 that should be.  That's a big supply difference.

As for difficulty not going up any more, we still have a much lower difficulty than the price has historically dictated.  Rigs that are already set up are profitable vs. their variable costs, so it's not like they are going anywhere.  The increase in new rigs may decrease, but someone who already has hardware might find out about Bitcoin and start mining.
Bleh
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May 19, 2011, 07:11:40 PM
 #8

Price should rise a little due to decreased supply.

Debatable- the newly generated coins aren't where all the trading is coming from.  To me the price seems more dependent on the perceived growth of the project, which may in fact be adversely affected by the lack of furious mining
tomcollins
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May 19, 2011, 07:23:42 PM
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Price should rise a little due to decreased supply.

Debatable- the newly generated coins aren't where all the trading is coming from.  To me the price seems more dependent on the perceived growth of the project, which may in fact be adversely affected by the lack of furious mining

Perfectly reasonable- it's hard to tell how much of the mining market is selling right away.  I'd figure at least some significant portion is (>10%).  That could be miniscule compared to early hoarders diversifying holdings at the current price.

Number of new users is probably a much bigger factor.
Iceredwing
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May 22, 2011, 05:24:51 AM
 #10

Having more miners mining at higher or even lower difficulty won't make the price go higher. Why would they buy when they can mine? They have choice to hoard or sell, but wouldn't buy unless they were actively trading for profit in some way. 

If everyone that wanted to invest in bitcoin do so by in the way of a mining rig rather than directly, I would imagine the demand to purchase at the market will be minimal.
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