Difficulty going down

[im0rtel]

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

[raskul]

it won't happen. there are batches of miners shipping out this week. I'd reckon we'll see ~5% increase next turn.

[redsn0w]

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Nothing , only : some people have turn off their mining hardware because the price of bitcoin has dropped.

[im0rtel]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

[raskul]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

i earn slightly more BTC next round than I did last. i'd have thought that would be the obvious outcome.

[devphp]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

[raskul]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

a bear trap caused by hardware manufacturers? probably.

[RyNinDaCleM]

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Just barely 2 days into this retarget and you trust the numbers? Those numbers are based on averages and as we move through the blocks, that average gets more accurate. Being ~2 days in means we are only 300 blocks of the 2016 block period. Give it some time to average out.

The difficulty may drop at any time, and becomes more likely to happen, the longer/deeper this bear market goes. Difficulty has no bearing on price, so nothing will happen except maybe inefficient miners who want Bitcoins will start buying instead of mining.

[raskul]

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Just barely 2 days into this retarget and you trust the numbers? Those numbers are based on averages and as we move through the blocks, that average gets more accurate. Being ~2 days in means we are only 300 blocks of the 2016 block period. Give it some time to average out.

The difficulty may drop at any time, and becomes more likely to happen, the longer/deeper this bear market goes. Difficulty has no bearing on price, so nothing will happen except maybe inefficient miners who want Bitcoins will start buying instead of mining.

i bet to differ. a difficulty drop will entice more miners to switch on redundant rigs, putting more BTC into the market, thus, having effect on price.
BTC price is largely commanded by market demand, and with lower difficulty, market demand to purchase BTC goes down - as does price.

difficulty has many unseen influences on price, it is ignorant to think otherwise.

[1Referee]

Even if the difficulty indeed does decrease, it will be for very short time. It would be a welcome change, though.

People will just fire up their miners and we end up with again a raising difficulty.

[raid_n]

i bet to differ. a difficulty drop will entice more miners to switch on redundant rigs, putting more BTC into the market, thus, having effect on price.

A difficulty drop means miners were already shut off to begin with. The only way more bitcoin come into the market than expected is if the hashrate increases again (as the difficulty re-target will lag behind)
(you are assuming the difficulty adjustment overshoots but it may be accurate enough that no new miners enter)

BTC price is largely commanded by market demand, and with lower difficulty, market demand to purchase BTC goes down - as does price.

I would not subscribe to that generalization.
When mining profitability goes up a lot demand to purchase BTC should go down. Difficulty can drop and yet still mining may remain unprofitable enough for demand to be mostly unaffected.
[edit] just to be clear, that is one factor in a complex system. When mining profitability goes up it will most likely be to external factors that also strongly influence demand

[cr1776]

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Nothing.  It has happened before.  And in all likelihood this is just a poor estimate since the last retargeting.

[im0rtel]

hmm so the price is droping , difficulty is droping. all this means nothing for the future of bitcoin? people turning off their miners , people losing faith in the "bitcoin to the moon " dream . all this means nothing ?
it has hapened before and it looks like this is going to happen again. this time the effects might be more severe.
the estimate difficulty drop this morning was 1.07 % and now is at 1.31 %. now i dont see where that recovery is . to me the dificulty is sliding down as time passes.

 

[Biodom]

hmm so the price is droping , difficulty is droping. all this means nothing for the future of bitcoin? people turning off their miners , people losing faith in the "bitcoin to the moon " dream . all this means nothing ?
it has hapened before and it looks like this is going to happen again. this time the effects might be more severe.
the estimate difficulty drop this morning was 1.07 % and now is at 1.31 %. now i dont see where that recovery is . to me the dificulty is sliding down as time passes.

 

Difficulty might drop 50% if BTC goes to $100-150. That size difficulty drop was what marked Nov 2011 bottom.
History rhymes?

[zimmah]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

Why would the bear market take another year? I don't think any bear market lasted almost 2 full years in bitcoin, why would this one?

[devphp]

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

Why would the bear market take another year? I don't think any bear market lasted almost 2 full years in bitcoin, why would this one?

Basically, the bigger the bubble of the bull market, the longer it takes for the bear market to return to the fair value price.

[piramida]

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

Why would the bear market take another year? I don't think any bear market lasted almost 2 full years in bitcoin, why would this one?

Basically, the bigger the bubble of the bull market, the longer it takes for the bear market to return to the fair value price.

And by bigger you mean exactly what? The biggest bubble so far was in 2011, when the price grown about 30x in a couple of months and retracted to 2x in a year. That last one was only 12x and retracted to 3x in a year, so it should've been over by now.

I guess it just never repeats any patterns. The bull of 2013 was a run of 15x which retracted to 4x in half a year, so it is not at all predictable.

[freedomno1]

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It just means it finally balanced out
It's been a giant rollercoaster for quite some time
Seeing it in a normal range is normal for most cases 

It's just were used to hyper growth of difficulty for miners it means stable ROI lol.

[devphp]

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

Why would the bear market take another year? I don't think any bear market lasted almost 2 full years in bitcoin, why would this one?

Basically, the bigger the bubble of the bull market, the longer it takes for the bear market to return to the fair value price.

And by bigger you mean exactly what? The biggest bubble so far was in 2011, when the price grown about 30x in a couple of months and retracted to 2x in a year. That last one was only 12x and retracted to 3x in a year, so it should've been over by now.

I guess it just never repeats any patterns. The bull of 2013 was a run of 15x which retracted to 4x in half a year, so it is not at all predictable.

Not the relative price rise, but the absolute price rise has been massive in 2013, this takes time to purge and shake out weak hands.

[im0rtel]

It just means it finally balanced out

bitcoin balancing out ? i dont think so sir.

maybe this is a small window of relaxation in the bitcoin network.  

but balancing out ? come on , this is bitcoin you are talking about .  volatilily is its middle name.

balance would be something highly desired but this is only a mirage...

it will either plumet to the ground in price and difficulty or skyrocket to the moon in price and difficulty.