Satoshi ..Private key lost?

[qwerty555]

What is the probability that the reason for the non movement of Satoshi coins is that the private key has been lost ( and what implications does this have?)?

As wallets have become more secure would these coins not be moved to something considered "safer" ?

When was a large chunk last moved? If it was years ago does this not support the likelihood of a lost key and the inability to access these coins?

If there is proof/indication that these are still active/ accessible it would be nice to see that to put my mind at rest .

If there is no convincing proof of continued access then this article can be ignored.

http://www.coindesk.com/dangerous-satoshi-nakamoto/



Satoshi certainly has a lot of funds. Bitcoin security consultant Sergio Lerner's oft-cited analysis puts the figure at around 1m BTC, based on the early mining that he or she did.

Most of those coins were unspent, the exceptions being some test transactions during the first ten days after Satoshi mined the genesis block (the first block on the blockchain).

[hilariousandco]

It's certainly a possibility but there are many other scenarios. The simple answer is nobody other than satoshi will ever know unless they suddenly move sometime.

[Mensa]

As wallets have become more secure would these coins not be moved to something considered "safer" ?

He probably just saved his private keys in an encrypted container. They were never really in a wallet other than bitcoind.

When was a large chunk last moved? If it was years ago does this not support the likelihood of a lost key and the inability to access these coins?

These coins weren't really moved at all. They're just sitting in the addresses to which they were mined.

[AGD]

- He is afraid of beeing found when he spends one satoshi
- He forgot his wallet passwords
- The harddisk with the wallets crashed
- He is dead

(Most likely in that order)

[BTCIndia]

- He is afraid of beeing found when he spends one satoshi
- He forgot his wallet passwords
- The harddisk with the wallets crashed
- He is dead

(Most likely in that order)

Collectively "Satoshi Nakamoto" is waiting for mass acceptance before revealing himself and starts dumping coin in market.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Satoshi likely has his private keys
If he is dead he likely implemented a deadman switch
Since Satoshi is just so unknown it really is hard to tell but I doubt he lost his own keys considering how skilled he is.

[dserrano5]

My personal stance on this is that satoshi intentionally deleted the private keys used to receive the early mining subsidies, despite his advice not to delete privkeys ever. His motivation to mine was to bootstrap the network and have transactions confirmed, not hoarding coins. He may be keeping some hundreds/thousands of BTC mined in 2010/2011 but probably those coins have already been moved. So we have both a) he has a lot of coins, b) early subsidies will never move.

Another plausible option is that he keeps them, but plans to cash them out gradually and going backwards in time, starting with the most recently mined blocks, so the market gets no sudden surprise over old coins moving. As older subsidies are spent our suspicion it's him will gradually grow and at some point we'll be totally sure but a lot of time will have passed and the market will have discounted it.

[1Referee]

They have not been touched even when the price was $1200 it would have made sense if he at least cashed out some coins.

These coins are most likely not accessible for whatever reason, or perhaps Satoshi simply doesn't care about money, also possible.

[hilariousandco]

They have not been touched even when the price was $1200 it would have made sense if he at least cashed out some coins.

These coins are most likely not accessible for whatever reason, or perhaps Satoshi simply doesn't care about money, also possible.

He may have cashed out from addresses nobody knows about. It is nice to think that he doesn't care about money, but those coins could be used for good in the future. He could slowly dish them out to charities or invest in infrastructure for bitcoin in the developing world.

[remotemass]

-He has more than enough for his living and doesn't need to spend his coins.
-He could have burnt his coins to avoid spending them or have lost them but do you think this would be the case or happen to a really wise man like him?
-He has always been really wise about his coins. He only gave a few to Hal Finney. It seems he is/was very fond of him.
-He is very sexy about his mysteries.
-He is very alive, watching us and working on hard problems and doing research.

2010-12-11 22:07:04 UTC - Original Post

Quote from: Hal on December 11, 2010, 08:08:45 PM
I'd like to hear some specific criticisms of the code. To me it looks like an impressive job, although I'd wish for more comments. Now I've mostly studied the init, main, script and a bit of net modules. This is some powerful machinery.

"That means a lot coming from you, Hal.  Thanks. " ~ Satoshi

[hilariousandco]

-He could have burnt his coins to avoid spending them or have lost them but do you think this would be the case or happen to a really wise man like him?

I don't think he would've abandoned them completely nor do I think it would've been wise to do so, though you could make an argument against it if they ever fell into the wrong hands or were dumped at one point, but I think if he was safe and smart with them they would be fine and could still be used wisely in the future.

-He is very sexy about his mysteries.

Haha. I'm going to use that when anyone ever creates a thread asking where satoshi is  .

[turvarya]

My personal stance on this is that satoshi intentionally deleted the private keys used to receive the early mining subsidies, despite his advice not to delete privkeys ever. His motivation to mine was to bootstrap the network and have transactions confirmed, not hoarding coins. He may be keeping some hundreds/thousands of BTC mined in 2010/2011 but probably those coins have already been moved. So we have both a) he has a lot of coins, b) early subsidies will never move.

Another plausible option is that he keeps them, but plans to cash them out gradually and going backwards in time, starting with the most recently mined blocks, so the market gets no sudden surprise over old coins moving. As older subsidies are spent our suspicion it's him will gradually grow and at some point we'll be totally sure but a lot of time will have passed and the market will have discounted it.

I like that, it makes a lot of sense to me. We do not really know, which blocks were mined by Satoshi, but with the oldest ones it is more likely that he mined them.
I still don't think, he will cash out ever.

[Honeybooboo]

Another plausible option is that he keeps them, but plans to cash them out gradually and going backwards in time, starting with the most recently mined blocks, so the market gets no sudden surprise over old coins moving. As older subsidies are spent our suspicion it's him will gradually grow and at some point we'll be totally sure but a lot of time will have passed and the market will have discounted it.

Maybe he's just hoddling? I think he more than anyone could see the massive potential for bitcoin so he may be keeping them as a long term investment. It's certainly interesting and exciting to find out what happens to them in the future if anything.

[Bitcoin Seller]

I'am pretty sure he didn't lose them,just holding them or maybe he is already rich so he don't really need them

[BTCIndia]

My personal stance on this is that satoshi intentionally deleted the private keys used to receive the early mining subsidies, despite his advice not to delete privkeys ever. His motivation to mine was to bootstrap the network and have transactions confirmed, not hoarding coins. He may be keeping some hundreds/thousands of BTC mined in 2010/2011 but probably those coins have already been moved. So we have both a) he has a lot of coins, b) early subsidies will never move.

Another plausible option is that he keeps them, but plans to cash them out gradually and going backwards in time, starting with the most recently mined blocks, so the market gets no sudden surprise over old coins moving. As older subsidies are spent our suspicion it's him will gradually grow and at some point we'll be totally sure but a lot of time will have passed and the market will have discounted it.

Is it very much naive for hero member?

[franky1]

to put short.. anyone who uses testnet (the mindset of playing around with worthless coins) how often do you bother to keep the privkeys..

i certainly think satoshi didn't bother backing up his wallets each time he implemented a new version. and especially with the fact that each reward went to a unique address, i do not think he cared about gathering up coins.. it wasnt until alot of people began jumping onboard in early 2010 that he started to realise that his invention had real world usefulness. especially after the bitcoin pizza and first exchanges opened, this is when i think his mindset changed and he started telling others to backup. (wouldnt you remind others the seriousness of backing up if you realise you unassumingly let hundreds of thousands of coins to just go to waste)

[Brooker]

to put short.. anyone who uses testnet (the mindset of playing around with worthless coins) how often do you bother to keep the privkeys..

i certainly think satoshi didn't bother backing up his wallets each time he implemented a new version. and especially with the fact that each reward went to a unique address, i do not think he cared about gathering up coins.. it wasnt until alot of people began jumping onboard in early 2010 that he started to realise that his invention had real world usefulness. especially after the bitcoin pizza and first exchanges opened

Bitcoin is a little different though. It was his baby so I'm sure he didn't just not bother keeping them. I like to think he would've been very careful with his coins, though I suppose it's possible he lost or misplaced some but not the amount that is still stationary.

[jehst]

- He is afraid of beeing found when he spends one satoshi
- He forgot his wallet passwords
- The harddisk with the wallets crashed
- He is dead

(Most likely in that order)

Collectively "Satoshi Nakamoto" is waiting for mass acceptance before revealing himself and starts dumping coin in market.

If there is mass acceptance, dumps won't be necessary. He won't need fiat.

The time to dump is now, while he is a multi-millionaire and bitcoin's future remains uncertain.

[haploid23]

The only thing anyone can be certain about is that his coins never moved thus far. Outside of that, everything else is speculation.

[Dogtanian]

The only thing anyone can be certain about is that his coins never moved thus far. Outside of that, everything else is speculation.

And we all know how much people like to speculate on here  . For some people that is all they're interested in sadly.