Volatility, ain't seen nothing yet, 10K to 1M in 1 year???

[Richard Branson]

Is it wrong that I hoard BTC? I collect and receive tips for 25 cents and hoard it as if it will be worth $500+ in 5 years. Everytime I see someone say 10 bits, I am thinking $10 dollars in the future

Just get a job.
Tips worth 25 Cents? 
Poor fellow, I am happy with my 4 digit amount of btc (not mBTC) and it's still pocketmoney for me.

[brg444]

No, almost nobody is holding coins right now just to keep the value and to get that value back 20 years from now with the certainty that the value will more or less be held.

Almost everybody holding coins right now is hoping for a significant value increase.  If the reason for holding coins is value *increase* and not *value holding*, then the scheme will fail of course once the hope for value *increase* will stop - that is what I wanted to illustrate.

If you buy at $300, you can hope for $10 000.  But in order to sustain $10 000, something must change.  You cannot buy at $10 000, with the same incentives as buying at $300.  The hope to buy at $10 000, and to reach $3 000 000 is much lower I would think, than to buy at $300 and hoping for $10 000.  Moreover, the influx of value needed at $10 000 to support the money supply inflation is much larger than at $ 300.

If the buying and holding incentive is the huge increase in value, we are exactly on the same incentives as a Ponzi: it will fail at a certain point, because at a certain point, to sustain the price, the influx of value needed is too high, and the prospect of still higher prices becomes essentially nihil.  At that point the price will plummet, and all people having bought at $50 000 will panic-sell.

The only store of value has buying incentives without any expectation of significant increase in value.  If you buy gold, you are not hoping on a factor 30 of value increase in a few years.  You hope that it will keep its value (which means, higher price as compared to a devaluating fiat).  You may hope for slight increase, and you are not afraid of a small decrease.

Almost nobody is holding bitcoin to KEEP its value in my opinion.  If you would know that your coins will have doubled in price 10 years from now, you wouldn't hold your coins.  You're hoping for the moon.  But if you count on other people hoping for even more moon to get yours, it's going to crash, because that's exactly the drive of a ponzi.

If bitcoin were held as a store of value, then everybody should be happy if the price is almost constant, or would rise slowly to compensate for Dollar inflation.  Most hodlers don't hold bitcoin for that.

So they are NOT doing it right now.

Of course, because smarter people realize that they are at the very beginning of the market adoption curve. The very basis of this thread which you have so conveniently ignored.

The purpose of everyone involved with Bitcoin, I would hope, is both conservation of value AND speculation on the increase of this value.

Of course, early adopters need an incentive to participate in this new form of money and this incentive is quite obviously future prospects of increased market adoption (speculation).

Bitcoin, like any form of money, is a technology. Technologies take some time to reach maturity. If you ask me we might just blow past 10,000$ without stopping because by that point we will have approached the "vertical" or "hyper-exponential" phase of the adoption curve. Whichever way this happens, buyers will substain the price at different price levels and the prospects of value increase need not to be the same for everyone. The further your buying price is along the adoption curve the smaller is your speculative prospect.

Yes, at some point in time, people will be buying or acquiring Bitcoin for the sole reason of value conservation combined with the attractive interest feature that rewards saving.

If you would know that your coins will have doubled in price 10 years from now, you wouldn't hold your coins.

 

[brg444]

...
They are doing so right now.

It is disingenuous to refer to Bitcoin as inflationary because of its emission schedule. It's current monetary base and limited supply creates more upside for growth than any comparative investements.

Bitcoin is currently inflationary.
The base is being inflated at ~10% per year--much faster than any self-respecting fiat currency.

Re. "upside":  BTCeanie BTCabies, like BTCitcoin, also have an upper limit.  Unlike BTCitcoin, that limit has already been reached [no more authentic BTCeanie BTCabies are being produced].  Thus, BTCeanie BTCabies are truly deflationary [authentic BTCeanie BTCabies can be destroyed, but not created]. 

Invest in & hoard BTCeanie BTCabies FTW!

stfu, troll.

[dinofelis]

A lot of people might be seeing BTC as the stock market 2.0.
Big money entered the DJI portfolio despite a loss of 90% from $381 to $41. Crash after crash people have trusted their money in the stock market and portfolios and have retired off it. I don't think it's ridiculous to think that BTC could be similar.
 (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19201940.html)

The stock market has fundamentals which are based upon the cash flow generated by real enterprises.  You cannot compare the stock market which is based upon expected discounted cash flow with the speculative value of collectables such as gold or bitcoin and of which the value in case of "store of value" only resides in the long-term trust one has in its acceptance of value, which, in my opinion, can only grow over a long period.

In as much as bitcoin is a currency, though, the monetary formula will give its price as a function of its use as a currency.  It is the way gold got its value historically: as a currency.

[brg444]

Yes it can last. That is what fixed supply assets do, grow in value as more people trust them to hold their value.

The guy buying at $100,000 obviously can not expect the same gains as earlier adopters but he can trust that he holds an assets that can not be confiscated through inflation and will reward saving instead of consumption.

Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value and the trust issue will be superceded by its spectacular growth soon enough.

Sure, but to develop that trust, will take a *long* time.  If an asset has grown wildly from $10 to $100 000.- in a few years time, you take it normally that this is a high volatility, and that the opposite motion will be potentially just as quick.  You don't consider that as a store of value for the long term.

We've seen that last year, people have bought at $1200.- and end up a year later around $400.-  Do you think that after that example, people would buy in with a lot of money at $100 000.- ?
So what would convince anyone that if the price rose in 5 years time to $100 000.- that it can stay there for 20 years ?  Only by observing it for 20 years before engaging in it with serious money ! Which by itself will mean it cannot stay there !  And btw, all hodlers of today would try to cash in at such a price !

Again, this is different from the speculative market which is high risk, high gain which is the main driving force of the bitcoin price right now, but which only makes sense when the price is low of course !

This is why I think that bitcoin as a store of value at high prices is not possible in the near future.  If bitcoin would stay for 10 years at $400.- (and slightly rising to compensate for dollar devaluation) then people would start considering it as a store of value around that price. 

Bitcoin at $100 000.- because as store of value is imo not sustainable in the near future.

It is sustainable by (gigantic) merchant adoption on the other hand.

This shows your fundamental misunderstanding of Bitcoin's value proposition.

Bitcoin is not a speculative asset.

It is a new form of money, a technology. If it reaches $100,000 it means that it will have been adopted globally and siphoned a large % of the world economy. By that point it will be apparent that Bitcoin is superior to its competitors. Considering its competitors are other forms of money (fiat & gold), users of these will find it more risky to ignore the trend than to participate and buy into this new economy.

Therefore you will see an exodus from the current fiat economy into Bitcoin and this is what will substain the price and drive it to the moon where only once it has saturated every accessible market will it stop its exponential rise.  

This is a zero-sum game. It is literally impossible for Bitcoin to stay at $400 for 10 years.

[brg444]

A lot of people might be seeing BTC as the stock market 2.0.
Big money entered the DJI portfolio despite a loss of 90% from $381 to $41. Crash after crash people have trusted their money in the stock market and portfolios and have retired off it. I don't think it's ridiculous to think that BTC could be similar.
 (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19201940.html)

The stock market has fundamentals which are based upon the cash flow generated by real enterprises.  You cannot compare the stock market which is based upon expected discounted cash flow with the speculative value of collectables such as gold or bitcoin and of which the value in case of "store of value" only resides in the long-term trust one has in its acceptance of value, which, in my opinion, can only grow over a long period.

In as much as bitcoin is a currency, though, the monetary formula will give its price as a function of its use as a currency.  It is the way gold got its value historically: as a currency.

Last part is absolutely false. For people to use gold as a currency they had to come to a consensus that its value would hold over time. If they didn't trust it to store value they wouldn't accept it in a trade.

The trust aspect you are referring to is dependent on the network effect of technology in question. Bitcoin, as a protocol, a form of money and an internet technology, profits from what is most probably one of the strongest network effect observable in our human environment.

Greed & network effect will absolutely be enough to entice a large majority of the population to adopt Bitcoin and trust its features as the best form of money available.

[NotLambchop]

...
A lot of people might be seeing BTC as the stock market 2.0.
Big money entered the DJI portfolio despite a loss of 90% from $381 to $41. Crash after crash people have trusted their money in the stock market and portfolios and have retired off it. I don't think it's ridiculous to think that BTC could be similar.

 (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19201940.html)

The difference between the stock market and Bitcoin may be somewhat difficult to grasp, so I'll try to explain:

Shares in a company represent a real live company.  IRL.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, represents only itself--a token that fits into a digital ledger.  It has as much or as little value as the market decides.  Unlike the stock market, if Bitcoin vanished from the face of the earth tomorrow, no one but a few enthusiasts would notice or care.  It is less similar to the stock market than apples are to outboard motors.
Hope this helps.

[dinofelis]

The guy is showing himself:

Bitcoin, unlike fiat, demands that we delay gratification. For once. This can be confusing at first, but it’s a lesson we soon learn. I learned it last summer when I spent 3 BTC on a $450 case of wine in Kelowna. Today, I could’ve bought that case for 0.64 BTC, and probably more like 0.1 BTC before long, then 0.001 BTC, etc.

But you know that that can't last.  That's like a Ponzi.  Why would the "latecomers" enter bitcoin at high prices ?  You buy a coin at $400 because you hope for $10 000.-.  But why would you buy a $10 000.- coin ?  Hoping for $ 100 000.- ?  Ok who's going to buy $ 100 000.- coins ?  Hoping for $10 000 000.- ?   No.  So the guy won't buy the $ 100 000.- coins for his retirement.  Meaning the guy buying at $ 10 000.- won't find a buyer at $ 100 000.-.   ...

Something is a store of value if you take it that it will KEEP its value more or less, not that you speculate that it will significantly increase if that is the only drive.  Because that will obviously come to an and one day, like a Ponzi.

You are assuming the only people that will buy are speculators and investors. 

No, that is what brg444 was claiming here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=873102.msg9652987#msg9652987

Namely that bitcoin would first be a store of value before becoming a currency.  By definition, people interested in "store of value" are investors, and we know that most people now are speculators.

My claim is that the real fundamental of bitcoin is as a currency, to buy stuff with.  What you are talking about, too !

Imagine if in 5 years coins are worth $100K each.  If I am still paid in fiat at that time, my money would (still) go in a bank.  Now imagine banks have decided to get their feet wet and allow withdrawals in BTC.  I'll withdraw in BTC thank you very much so I can spend safely and securely, and carry it with me.  At that time there would likely be enough infrastructure that the company I buy from can get its supplies purchased in BTC as well, and so on.  So I spend 100 bits to buy a $10 gift online.  Now that $10 worth of bitcoin remains as such, rather than being sold back.

So I may very well be the one who "buys" the $100K bitcoin.  Or at least some of it.  Because this is the future that I can see...

Indeed.  Merchant adoption.

However, things will be the other way around: bitcoins will then be $100 000.- BECAUSE you are wanting your salary in bitcoin, because you want to store your bitcoins you earned to spend them directly to buy stuff, and that the guy you're buying from is also using his coins to buy his supplies from and so on.  And then the coins get their value from P x Q = M x V.
From the demand for holding currency to be able to buy stuff with.

Merchant adoption.

And that will then be the true fundamental which will make bitcoin have $100 000.- and after several years like that, you will not hesitate putting your life savings in bitcoin for your retirement, because you know that bitcoin, as long as it is used as a currency, will keep more or less that value.  It can then also become a reliable store of value.

But that will not happen 5 years from now.

[NotLambchop]

...
They are doing so right now.

It is disingenuous to refer to Bitcoin as inflationary because of its emission schedule. It's current monetary base and limited supply creates more upside for growth than any comparative investements.

Bitcoin is currently inflationary.
The base is being inflated at ~10% per year--much faster than any self-respecting fiat currency.

Re. "upside":  BTCeanie BTCabies, like BTCitcoin, also have an upper limit.  Unlike BTCitcoin, that limit has already been reached [no more authentic BTCeanie BTCabies are being produced].  Thus, BTCeanie BTCabies are truly deflationary [authentic BTCeanie BTCabies can be destroyed, but not created]. 

Invest in & hoard BTCeanie BTCabies FTW!

stfu, troll.

Learn some manners

[indiemax]

Is it wrong that I hoard BTC? I collect and receive tips for 25 cents and hoard it as if it will be worth $500+ in 5 years. Everytime I see someone say 10 bits, I am thinking $10 dollars in the future

Hoarding is the way to go my friend.

how will hoarding add value?

if everyone sat on their coins the pump and dumpers will dictate the price

spending adds value

[brg444]

The guy is showing himself:

Bitcoin, unlike fiat, demands that we delay gratification. For once. This can be confusing at first, but it’s a lesson we soon learn. I learned it last summer when I spent 3 BTC on a $450 case of wine in Kelowna. Today, I could’ve bought that case for 0.64 BTC, and probably more like 0.1 BTC before long, then 0.001 BTC, etc.

But you know that that can't last.  That's like a Ponzi.  Why would the "latecomers" enter bitcoin at high prices ?  You buy a coin at $400 because you hope for $10 000.-.  But why would you buy a $10 000.- coin ?  Hoping for $ 100 000.- ?  Ok who's going to buy $ 100 000.- coins ?  Hoping for $10 000 000.- ?   No.  So the guy won't buy the $ 100 000.- coins for his retirement.  Meaning the guy buying at $ 10 000.- won't find a buyer at $ 100 000.-.   ...

Something is a store of value if you take it that it will KEEP its value more or less, not that you speculate that it will significantly increase if that is the only drive.  Because that will obviously come to an and one day, like a Ponzi.

You are assuming the only people that will buy are speculators and investors.

No, that is what brg444 was claiming here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=873102.msg9652987#msg9652987

Namely that bitcoin would first be a store of value before becoming a currency.  By definition, people interested in "store of value" are investors, and we know that most people now are speculators.

My claim is that the real fundamental of bitcoin is as a currency, to buy stuff with.  What you are talking about, too !

Imagine if in 5 years coins are worth $100K each.  If I am still paid in fiat at that time, my money would (still) go in a bank.  Now imagine banks have decided to get their feet wet and allow withdrawals in BTC.  I'll withdraw in BTC thank you very much so I can spend safely and securely, and carry it with me.  At that time there would likely be enough infrastructure that the company I buy from can get its supplies purchased in BTC as well, and so on.  So I spend 100 bits to buy a $10 gift online.  Now that $10 worth of bitcoin remains as such, rather than being sold back.

So I may very well be the one who "buys" the $100K bitcoin.  Or at least some of it.  Because this is the future that I can see...

Indeed.  Merchant adoption.

However, things will be the other way around: bitcoins will then be $100 000.- BECAUSE you are wanting your salary in bitcoin, because you want to store your bitcoins you earned to spend them directly to buy stuff, and that the guy you're buying from is also using his coins to buy his supplies from and so on.  And then the coins get their value from P x Q = M x V.
From the demand for holding currency to be able to buy stuff with.

Merchant adoption.

And that will then be the true fundamental which will make bitcoin have $100 000.- and after several years like that, you will not hesitate putting your life savings in bitcoin for your retirement, because you know that bitcoin, as long as it is used as a currency, will keep more or less that value.  It can then also become a reliable store of value.

But that will not happen 5 years from now.

Absurd.

No one will accept a currency that has not first and foremost established itself as a store of value.

This is the very reason why you see merchants currently dumping BTC to fiat. They do not trust it to hold value. This sort of merchant adoption is certainly not what will drive the price of Bitcoin.

[Flashman]

Shares in a company represent a real live company.  IRL.

Theoretically, but the valuation represents the markets best guess at future earnings of that company.

Some billion dollar software tech companies have only "really" consisted of an old warehouse, rented, divided into offices, a handful of computers, and a few employees. $50,000 including the potted plant in reception.

[brg444]

Is it wrong that I hoard BTC? I collect and receive tips for 25 cents and hoard it as if it will be worth $500+ in 5 years. Everytime I see someone say 10 bits, I am thinking $10 dollars in the future

Hoarding is the way to go my friend.

how will hoarding add value?

if everyone sat on their coins the pump and dumpers will dictate the price

spending adds value

Wrong, the hoarders are the hero.

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/

[dinofelis]

Yes it can last. That is what fixed supply assets do, grow in value as more people trust them to hold their value.

The guy buying at $100,000 obviously can not expect the same gains as earlier adopters but he can trust that he holds an assets that can not be confiscated through inflation and will reward saving instead of consumption.

Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value and the trust issue will be superceded by its spectacular growth soon enough.

Sure, but to develop that trust, will take a *long* time.  If an asset has grown wildly from $10 to $100 000.- in a few years time, you take it normally that this is a high volatility, and that the opposite motion will be potentially just as quick.  You don't consider that as a store of value for the long term.

We've seen that last year, people have bought at $1200.- and end up a year later around $400.-  Do you think that after that example, people would buy in with a lot of money at $100 000.- ?
So what would convince anyone that if the price rose in 5 years time to $100 000.- that it can stay there for 20 years ?  Only by observing it for 20 years before engaging in it with serious money ! Which by itself will mean it cannot stay there !  And btw, all hodlers of today would try to cash in at such a price !

Again, this is different from the speculative market which is high risk, high gain which is the main driving force of the bitcoin price right now, but which only makes sense when the price is low of course !

This is why I think that bitcoin as a store of value at high prices is not possible in the near future.  If bitcoin would stay for 10 years at $400.- (and slightly rising to compensate for dollar devaluation) then people would start considering it as a store of value around that price. 

Bitcoin at $100 000.- because as store of value is imo not sustainable in the near future.

It is sustainable by (gigantic) merchant adoption on the other hand.

This shows your fundamental misunderstanding of Bitcoin's value proposition.

Bitcoin is not a speculative asset.

It is a new form of money, a technology. If it reaches $100,000 it means that it will have been adopted globally and siphoned a large % of the world economy. By that point it will be apparent that Bitcoin is superior to its competitors. Considering its competitors are other forms of money (fiat & gold), users of these will find it more risky to ignore the trend than to participate and buy into this new economy.

So it is merchant adoption, after all !

Therefore you will see an exodus from the current fiat economy into Bitcoin and this is what will substain the price and drive it to the moon where only once it has saturated every accessible market will it stop its exponential rise.  

Possible, but that is what I call merchant adoption.  "store of value" without merchant adoption, replacing gold, but not the money to buy your car with, is hard to believe.  That's my point.

It is literally impossible for Bitcoin to stay at $400 for 10 years.

Why ?   Look at some paintings of some or other famous painter who is dead, so his paintings are collectibles like bitcoin.  Now, if bitcoin remains a funny curiosity within a certain circle of technology adepts, slowly growing at about the rate of inflation of bitcoin, why wouldn't it be possible ?   Maybe we are already on the top of the adoption curve of "funny curiosities".  Personally I don't think so, and I don't hope so, but it is a possibility.
Rembrandt paintings are worth a lot of money, but I think, less than the current market cap of bitcoin.  So should we expect bitcoin, as a technological curiosity if it never grows out of that status, to be so much more worth than the collection of Rembrandt paintings ?

Maybe bitcoin, as a curiosity, already came to maturity ?

Just to illustrate that it is perfectly well possible that bitcoin stays at about $400 too.  It would then be a reliable store of value for those few people interested in this kind of stuff, just like collectors of Rembrandt paintings are.  They are expensive too, but don't go to the moon either.

[brg444]

The guy is showing himself:

Bitcoin, unlike fiat, demands that we delay gratification. For once. This can be confusing at first, but it’s a lesson we soon learn. I learned it last summer when I spent 3 BTC on a $450 case of wine in Kelowna. Today, I could’ve bought that case for 0.64 BTC, and probably more like 0.1 BTC before long, then 0.001 BTC, etc.

But you know that that can't last.  That's like a Ponzi.  Why would the "latecomers" enter bitcoin at high prices ?  You buy a coin at $400 because you hope for $10 000.-.  But why would you buy a $10 000.- coin ?  Hoping for $ 100 000.- ?  Ok who's going to buy $ 100 000.- coins ?  Hoping for $10 000 000.- ?   No.  So the guy won't buy the $ 100 000.- coins for his retirement.  Meaning the guy buying at $ 10 000.- won't find a buyer at $ 100 000.-.   ...

Something is a store of value if you take it that it will KEEP its value more or less, not that you speculate that it will significantly increase if that is the only drive.  Because that will obviously come to an and one day, like a Ponzi.

You are assuming the only people that will buy are speculators and investors.

No, that is what brg444 was claiming here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=873102.msg9652987#msg9652987

Namely that bitcoin would first be a store of value before becoming a currency.  By definition, people interested in "store of value" are investors, and we know that most people now are speculators.

My claim is that the real fundamental of bitcoin is as a currency, to buy stuff with.  What you are talking about, too !

Imagine if in 5 years coins are worth $100K each.  If I am still paid in fiat at that time, my money would (still) go in a bank.  Now imagine banks have decided to get their feet wet and allow withdrawals in BTC.  I'll withdraw in BTC thank you very much so I can spend safely and securely, and carry it with me.  At that time there would likely be enough infrastructure that the company I buy from can get its supplies purchased in BTC as well, and so on.  So I spend 100 bits to buy a $10 gift online.  Now that $10 worth of bitcoin remains as such, rather than being sold back.

So I may very well be the one who "buys" the $100K bitcoin.  Or at least some of it.  Because this is the future that I can see...

Indeed.  Merchant adoption.

However, things will be the other way around: bitcoins will then be $100 000.- BECAUSE you are wanting your salary in bitcoin, because you want to store your bitcoins you earned to spend them directly to buy stuff, and that the guy you're buying from is also using his coins to buy his supplies from and so on.  And then the coins get their value from P x Q = M x V.
From the demand for holding currency to be able to buy stuff with.

Merchant adoption.

And that will then be the true fundamental which will make bitcoin have $100 000.- and after several years like that, you will not hesitate putting your life savings in bitcoin for your retirement, because you know that bitcoin, as long as it is used as a currency, will keep more or less that value.  It can then also become a reliable store of value.

But that will not happen 5 years from now.

Absurd.

No one will accept a currency that has not first and foremost established itself as a store of value.

This is the very reason why you see merchants currently dumping BTC to fiat. They do not trust it to hold value. This sort of merchant adoption is certainly not what will drive the price of Bitcoin.

Currencies are unusual in that the greater is its market cap, the more useful they are. (...) A more expensive currency is ipso facto more marketable (more liquid), thus making it a superior medium of exchange. The more bitcoin hoarding there is, the better it is as a medium of exchange.

Store of value > Means of Exchange > Unit of Account

[Flashman]

BTW I can imagine that any price short of about 5 million will give you a 5 year profit, ask me again when we get close to last half of late majority.

[brg444]

Possible, but that is what I call merchant adoption.  "store of value" without merchant adoption, replacing gold, but not the money to buy your car with, is hard to believe.  That's my point.

But that is absolutely not merchant adoption. The argument is not whether it will be used as a means-of-exchange. That is a given. The argument is that this use case (currency) can only be fulfilled by its success as a store of value.

Why ?   Look at some paintings of some or other famous painter who is dead, so his paintings are collectibles like bitcoin.  Now, if bitcoin remains a funny curiosity within a certain circle of technology adepts, slowly growing at about the rate of inflation of bitcoin, why wouldn't it be possible ?   Maybe we are already on the top of the adoption curve of "funny curiosities".  Personally I don't think so, and I don't hope so, but it is a possibility.

Rembrandt paintings are worth a lot of money, but I think, less than the current market cap of bitcoin.  So should we expect bitcoin, as a technological curiosity if it never grows out of that status, to be so much more worth than the collection of Rembrandt paintings ?

Maybe bitcoin, as a curiosity, already came to maturity ?

Just to illustrate that it is perfectly well possible that bitcoin stays at about $400 too.  It would then be a reliable store of value for those few people interested in this kind of stuff, just like collectors of Rembrandt paintings are.  They are expensive too, but don't go to the moon either.

Bitcoin are not collectibles, they are money so that comparison does not stick. Maybe you're just playing stupid if you are honestly trying to peg Bitcoin as a "curiosity"

[dinofelis]

Absurd.

No one will accept a currency that has not first and foremost established itself as a store of value.

This is the very reason why you see merchants currently dumping BTC to fiat. They do not trust it to hold value. This sort of merchant adoption is certainly not what will drive the price of Bitcoin.

On the contrary.  A store of value needs much more trust than a currency, because the holding times are much shorter for a currency, and the possibilities to exchange it are much larger with a currency.

It is much less risky to be paid in an asset as a currency and spend that currency on several goods and services, than to store your retirement in that asset if trust in the asset is limited, because the currency, you keep it for a few weeks.  The retirement, you keep it for 30 years.  

I wouldn't mind be paid in bitcoin if I could spend my bitcoin when going to the supermarket, and buying petrol and so on.  I wouldn't care about the long-term evolution of bitcoin.  Hey, during one month, it won't change too much, right ?  However, I have no idea about in 20 years.

I don't mind getting paid in fiat either.  Actually, today, I need fiat to be able to buy my groceries !  So if I would be paid in bitcoin, I'd convert them to fiat to do my shopping.  Because with that fiat, I can buy stuff all over the place.  With bitcoin, not (yet).

Using a currency is much less risky than using a store of value in the long run.

[dinofelis]

Bitcoin are not collectibles, they are money so that comparison does not stick. Maybe you're just playing stupid if you are honestly trying to peg Bitcoin as a "curiosity"

Bitcoin is not money yet.  Bitcoin acts as digital collectibles for the moment.  In order for bitcoin to be money, you have to be able to walk into a store, see the stuff priced in bitcoin, and pay in bitcoin.  Without thinking about it.  Like you do with $ in the USA, or with Euro in Europe.

[NotLambchop]

Shares in a company represent a real live company.  IRL.

Theoretically, but the valuation represents the markets best guess at future earnings of that company.

Some billion dollar software tech companies have only "really" consisted of an old warehouse, rented, divided into offices, a handful of computers, and a few employees. $50,000 including the potted plant in reception.

Sure.  The point I'm trying to make is a BTC represents nothing external to itself.
The value it represents is purely speculative--not even a potted plant in reception.