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Author Topic: Bruce Wagner said  (Read 1880 times)
adamstgBit
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June 16, 2012, 03:35:20 AM
 #1

Bruce Wagner said:
 
Quote
Yes, the "run on the bank" is real.    ( No one wants to sell on MtGox
if they can't get their USD out, so it's all buyers and no sellers
over there. )

Thus, the price is artificially inflated at MtGox.

The MtGox "Last Price" is not a valid reflection of the free market
value of a Bitcoin.   It is skewed by the situation where sellers are
refusing to sell on MtGox... if they can't get their USD out.

But since everyone looks at the MtGox price as the defacto Bitcoin
price, all the other exchanges values are also affected.

As I said, I predict that it will pass $10.00 per Bitcoin.....  before
the MtGox price finally crashes.

is this true, on one can withdraw USD on MtGox?

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teflone
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June 16, 2012, 03:36:47 AM
 #2

Dont perpetuate his ramblings..

He only knows about scamming..  



edit - And boy girls..

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June 16, 2012, 03:37:40 AM
 #3

Bruce Wagner said:
 
Quote
Yes, the "run on the bank" is real.    ( No one wants to sell on MtGox
if they can't get their USD out, so it's all buyers and no sellers
over there. )

Thus, the price is artificially inflated at MtGox.

The MtGox "Last Price" is not a valid reflection of the free market
value of a Bitcoin.   It is skewed by the situation where sellers are
refusing to sell on MtGox... if they can't get their USD out.

But since everyone looks at the MtGox price as the defacto Bitcoin
price, all the other exchanges values are also affected.

As I said, I predict that it will pass $10.00 per Bitcoin.....  before
the MtGox price finally crashes.

is this true, on one can withdraw USD on MtGox?

When did he say that?
adamstgBit
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June 16, 2012, 03:38:22 AM
 #4

Bruce Wagner said:
 
Quote
Yes, the "run on the bank" is real.    ( No one wants to sell on MtGox
if they can't get their USD out, so it's all buyers and no sellers
over there. )

Thus, the price is artificially inflated at MtGox.

The MtGox "Last Price" is not a valid reflection of the free market
value of a Bitcoin.   It is skewed by the situation where sellers are
refusing to sell on MtGox... if they can't get their USD out.

But since everyone looks at the MtGox price as the defacto Bitcoin
price, all the other exchanges values are also affected.

As I said, I predict that it will pass $10.00 per Bitcoin.....  before
the MtGox price finally crashes.

is this true, on one can withdraw USD on MtGox?

When did he say that?

i get e-mails form a Google group

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June 16, 2012, 03:39:18 AM
 #5

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

adamstgBit
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June 16, 2012, 03:41:26 AM
 #6

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.


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June 16, 2012, 03:46:15 AM
 #7

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.


I deposited money into CampBX, bought Bitcoins, and was not allowed to withdraw them the same day.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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June 16, 2012, 03:48:09 AM
 #8

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.



That's cool.  The guys at CampBX have developed a pretty nice platform and I'd love to see their volume go way up.
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June 16, 2012, 03:48:35 AM
 #9

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.


I deposited money into CampBX, bought Bitcoins, and was not allowed to withdraw them the same day.

How many days did it take?
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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June 16, 2012, 03:52:11 AM
 #10

I do think we need to think about a post MtGox and TradeHill world. I know they are working under extraordinary circumstances, but we must prepare for the worst. BTW, how do I get on Bruce Wagner's email list?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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June 16, 2012, 03:57:03 AM
 #11

You can withdraw from MtGox... it just takes a few weeks/months/years...

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.


I deposited money into CampBX, bought Bitcoins, and was not allowed to withdraw them the same day.

How many days did it take?
3 business days. That being said, the other way (BTC to USD) can be withdrawn instantly, just at a 2-5% loss on the rate (which I've been enjoying very much as someone who has bought the coins).

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June 16, 2012, 03:59:47 AM
 #12

I generally don't give a flying crap what Bruce says but it is something I have observed.

If you goal is to cashout (not play a bunch of trading games) you can sell @ Gox and get 1% to 3% higher price but then get stuck for 14-21 days.  Or you can sell on the smaller exchanges and get 1% to 3% less but can actually cashout in a timely manner.

The only thing that explains higher prices on Gox is the imbalance of buyers and sellers relative to other exchanges.  I would agree the fair market price is likely ~2% lower than what is listed as "MtGox last".
adamstgBit
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June 16, 2012, 04:01:07 AM
 #13

I do think we need to think about a post MtGox and TradeHill world. I know they are working under extraordinary circumstances, but we must prepare for the worst. BTW, how do I get on Bruce Wagner's email list?

i'm not sure... somehow i signed up for this google group bitcoinpeople@googlegroups.com, Long time ago

adamstgBit
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June 16, 2012, 04:04:59 AM
 #14

I generally don't give a flying crap what Bruce says but it is something I have observed.

If you goal is to cashout (not play a bunch of trading games) you can sell @ Gox and get 1% to 3% higher price but then get stuck for 14-21 days.  Or you can sell on the smaller exchanges and get 1% to 3% less but can actually cashout in a timely manner.

The only thing that explains higher prices on Gox is the imbalance of buyers and sellers relative to other exchanges.  I would agree the fair market price is likely ~2% lower than what is listed as "MtGox last".


interesting...

maybe the wait VS higher prices, sorta cancel each other out

if not then mtgox will slowly get less and less volume, ( why buy at %3 higher price, why sell and have to wait 3 weeks for the cash)


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June 16, 2012, 04:49:01 AM
 #15

The delay is so long on withdrawing from MtGox to Dwolla that people start exaggerating and saying it's "impossible".  My last 3 withdraws have gone through in 7-8 days consistently.  I just sold a utility trailer for BTC, so I better be able to withdraw dammit! lol
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June 16, 2012, 04:59:16 AM
 #16

well than people should start trying other exchanges

Keyur says:

Quote
CampBX has the best priced Bitcoins right now... $5.99!  We have been consistently lower than MtGox price over last week because sellers are loving our same-day withdrawals.


I deposited money into CampBX, bought Bitcoins, and was not allowed to withdraw them the same day.
[/quote]

How many days did it take?
[/quote]
3 business days. That being said, the other way (BTC to USD) can be withdrawn instantly, just at a 2-5% loss on the rate (which I've been enjoying very much as someone who has bought the coins).
[/quote]

Well, campBX doesn't have enough volume in orderbooks - you cannot buy or sell 1000 BTC there, not even at a bad price:



For 100 BTC the picture is different: 15 and 17 hours instead of 30 and 24, and orders comparable to 100 BTC are executed every 3 hours or so since the rally has started:



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June 16, 2012, 05:04:51 AM
 #17

The price at MtGox is real, just remember it is just a reflection of BTC / MtGoxUSD, not BTC/USD.  As the value of MtGoxUSD moves downward away from 1.00 due to our running out of patience with the withdrawal issues, the total number you see on the MtGox ticker goes up, and the more it diverges from BTC/USD.

Remember my mickey mouse dollar thread?  If there were an accurate ticker that tracked the market value of a MtGoxUSD/USD, then you could easily calculate BTC/USD by multiplying the two numbers together:  BTC/MtGoxUSD * MtGoxUSD/USD = BTC/MtGoxUSD * MtGoxUSD/USD = BTC/USD.  Maybe it's time for a new poll: what's today's market value of a MtGox USD?  Still in the nineties?  Who's buying?

That said:

  • I still think BTC are way undervalued and am holding mine - just the press coverage (e.g. Europeans "dumping" Euro for Bitcoin and Bitcoin is more stable than Euro etc.) is going to bring a lot of attention and demand to Bitcoin... as right now, the entire market cap of Bitcoin is still less than the value of 1/10 of some high rise condo building in Manhattan
  • If MtGox is illiquid on fiat but has a surplus of BTC of their own, seeing the BTC price go up puts MtGox in a windfall position on their BTC holdings which may be a partial or complete answer to any fiat deficit they have.  Of course, AFAIK, MtGox has resisted our requests to prove ownership of BTC, so this may just be a pipe dream.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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June 16, 2012, 05:20:47 AM
 #18

The price at MtGox is real, just remember it is just a reflection of BTC / MtGoxUSD, not BTC/USD.  As the value of MtGoxUSD moves downward away from 1.00 due to our running out of patience with the withdrawal issues, the total number you see on the MtGox ticker goes up, and the more it diverges from BTC/USD.

Remember my mickey mouse dollar thread?  If there were an accurate ticker that tracked the market value of a MtGoxUSD/USD, then you could easily calculate BTC/USD by multiplying the two numbers together:  BTC/MtGoxUSD * MtGoxUSD/USD = BTC/MtGoxUSD * MtGoxUSD/USD = BTC/USD.
I have something resembling the BTC/USD ticker at my bitcoin-analytics.com: best market order execution price across 13 exchanges for large volumes. For orders 10000BTC worth the best execution price (defined using standard consolidated order book) is not much different from mtgox price as of now, we are talking about 0.04 difference:

6.5/6.54 mtgox
6.5/6.58 if we try to collect best offers from all exchanges.

For 10 BTC we have whooping 10% difference in rates, but 10 BTC price don't matter as you cannot trade 10k for the same price.

If we look at actual executed orders and not at orderbooks (some exchanges have good offers but you cannot execute them because it's hard to put or withdraw usd there) the picture is the same:

volume-weighted average price of executed orders for 10000 BTC is 6.38/6.44 at mtgox, but for all usd exchanges (actually for 12) is 6.38/6.41. The difference is just 0.03, so mtgox is still dominating unfortunately if we talk about volumes meaninful for BTC economy and not for one guy buying a pizza.

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June 16, 2012, 07:52:34 AM
 #19

I do think we need to think about a post MtGox and TradeHill world. I know they are working under extraordinary circumstances, but we must prepare for the worst. BTW, how do I get on Bruce Wagner's email list?

Email him pictures of yourself dressed up as a 12 year old Thai boy and he'll put you right on the list
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June 16, 2012, 09:33:49 AM
 #20

This is BS. The problems of withdrawing at Gox affect a minority of users and almost all of it is related to Dwolla. Second of all, Gox is not what it used to be. Other exchanges have grown and become more known and more significant overall. They have an effect on the price, during this rally it has in fact been Gox that has been following other exchanges (most of the time), not the other way around, even though Gox still has way more volume.

Selling coins and getting them out is NOT a problem in general. There are many exchanges and there is very good bid depth everywhere basically. This is just stupid.

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