What's causing the recent bitcoin price increase?

[Cluster2k]

Here is why:http://alturl.com/w9qt4

"The big news now is that the new Bitcoin rally will likely be even stronger than the first rally from April 2010 to June 2011"

Okay, sounds great.  How much will it go up by?

"This first rally led to a 10,630-fold increase from 0.003 $ to 31.89 $. In the hottest phase from March to June 2011, investors and traders entered a race to put funds into exchanges and buy Bitcoins."

So this rally will be even better, they claim?  Let's see.  $6.40 * 10630 as a minimum.  Wow, $68,032 per bitcoin.  I wonder what the site's author was thinking.  Maybe they were thinking in simple dollar terms, so they think we'll see at least $38/btc quite soon.  Still one heck of an ask.

The author also neglected to mention that although were was a race to put funds into exchange to buy bitcoins between March and June 2011, there was one heck of a stampede to take profits and limit losses on the way down too.


The current rally is a classic selling the sizzle, not the sausage rally.  Thousands of traders are expecting Greeks, Spaniards, and maybe others to seek shelter in bitcoin from currency controls.  Therefore, why not buy in now before desperate people pour millions of Euros into bitcoin?  Should that not happen however I'd expect we'll be trading in the mid to low $5 range quite soon.  There is also no evidence of the average Greek looking towards bitcoins as a safe haven.  I bet most have never even heard of bitcoin.  Try explaining how bitcoin works to the random worker on the street, and then get them to buy some.  Not a simple task.

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[Technomage]

I don't buy that. Most traders are smart enough to know that Bitcoin is a marginal safe haven asset and will remain so for most likely many years. Bitcoin is growing on that front though and on many other areas as well, all the time. The growth in price terms often happens in spurts like this one.

Bitcoin is on a growing megatrend which could potentially put it to the moon again but not just yet. The news trend is accelerating overall and developments in the Bitcoin world are accelerating as well, which makes it much more substantial. The $7 - $8 zone is tricky because it's hard to say when exactly that is "justified" but the $5 - $6 zone is such a no-brainer buy zone.

Now we're in the middle of the no-brainer zone and the tricky zone which makes the situation interesting.

[Technomage]

It's so ridiculous to think that Bitcoin will stay in the $5's, it makes absolutely no sense. New coins are not being mined fast enough to stop growth at $5 and the block reward halving is getting closer. The fundamental growth of Bitcoin services is phenomenal right now, the only area of growth where we're seriously lacking is merchants that accept Bitcoin. I feel that soon that will start changing because Bitcoin usability and the ease of acquiring bitcoins has been improving massively.

Then there is the megatrend of Bitcoin related news which have been more and more positive in recent months. There is some hype here of course but it's certainly not all hype. Bitcoin is becoming a more legitimate and a more serious asset as time goes on and it continues to function. This causes more and more slightly-interested-but-critical people to take a second look at Bitcoin.

[AndyRossy]

Isnt it likely people speculating that it'll gain, quoting last year, are those who are putting these walls in? Give a demo that prices are going up, idiot buy in, make the price higher, then they slowly offload?

I dont see any real reason for prices to go up, except for, to overvalue it as it was over-valued previously, generally for the benefit of the few.

I always wonder who's behind articles quoted earlier in this thread, and, who's behind the walls...

[herzmeister]

OMG sell sell sell! 
Greece voted *for* the Euro at last today. 

[Sitarow]

OMG sell sell sell! 
Greece voted *for* the Euro at last today. 

One nice thing about Bitcoin is that you can take advantage of the Euro/USD exchange rate as it is presently and get more Bitcoin's then you may get for the same euro later on.

A nice tool to hedge with.

[proudhon]

OMG sell sell sell! 
Greece voted *for* the Euro at last today. 

Haha, just as I doubt Greece's situation had much to do with the rise, I doubt it has much to do with the selling going on now.  This is just profit taking and attempts to sell and buy more back later, and I think it's going to keep the price in check for a while.

[Technomage]

Selling because of the Greece vote itself is ridiculous. It has no effect on anything either way. In some ways Greece staying in the Euro could be worse for the Euro in longer term. However, I've learned something in this game and that is the fact that what speculators THINK affects the market is what makes the market move. So even though almost no one actually cares about the vote in regards to Bitcoin, people are still thinking that "what if there are many who expect others to react because the situation gives people an excuse to sell?" Then the market takes a small dip and they decide to sell as well, and then we have a flurry of sells.

Sometimes all the market needs is small doubt, just one reason, any reason, to do something. Then if they think others think the same way and someone is actually doing that already (in this case selling), they will simply follow and ride the wave.

I do think that the market will rebound fairly strongly once some kind of a bottom is established. If not, people in this market are more stupid than I've given them credit for. No one can seriously put much weight on the Greece vote as far as their Bitcoin trading decisions are concerned, it's all just a game of seeing how far the charade of expecting selling because of it can last. It won't last long, if people have half a brain.

Then again it could be that none of this has anything to do with the Greece vote. That would make much more sense. It could be a correction just like any other and I have no problem with that explanation. Explaining it with the Greeks only makes sense if you start to think it through in-depth like I just tried.

[Transisto]

price will rise because people investing 20 000$ in ASICs hardware are true believer of bitcoin future, so even if it end up costing them 5c electricity per btc, they won't sell.

[Sitarow]

and that's why some of us are here

[Piper67]

Anyone who thinks Greece staying in the Eurozone is good for the Euro needs to have their head checked. The zone might be able to pull out of this spiral, but having to drag Greece out as well is a liability, not an asset.

[TraderTimm]

I've decided to add to my holdings (BTC) in light of the potential for US bank exposure to europe. There is a lot that has to be solved before it gets any better. Greece just postponed it a month or so, the other countries are next.

I'd prefer my funds accessible, not locked up with capital controls and withdrawal limits. Even if I have to remit to another currency, at least I'll have the option.

Interesting times, for sure.
 

[cantor]

Couldn't this all be from just one european magnate who is buying huge amounts of bitcoins for the lulz?

[proudhon]

Couldn't this all be from just one european magnate who is buying huge amounts of bitcoins for the lulz?

Yes.

[giszmo]

Couldn't this all be from just one european magnate who is buying huge amounts of bitcoins for the lulz?

for the lulz? maybe not but one? for sure.
I consider bitcoin market cap too low for most investors to even consider trying it. Buy low - sell high is hard when by buying you move the price by 30%.

[bitcoinfrenzy]

Does anyone have up-to-date information on the correlation between cost of mining and bitcoin price?  How much does it cost to mine 1 bitcoin?  How has that cost changed over time?

Do people generally think there is a connection between mining cost and bitcoin price, or is that not considered to be relevant? 

Thanks!

[giszmo]

Does anyone have up-to-date information on the correlation between cost of mining and bitcoin price?  How much does it cost to mine 1 bitcoin?  How has that cost changed over time?

Do people generally think there is a connection between mining cost and bitcoin price, or is that not considered to be relevant? 

Thanks!

with rising prices people will start mining until it doesn't pay off anymore. therefore a small time miner never makes a profit and a big time miner has to stem some investment.

[notme]

Does anyone have up-to-date information on the correlation between cost of mining and bitcoin price?  How much does it cost to mine 1 bitcoin?  How has that cost changed over time?

Do people generally think there is a connection between mining cost and bitcoin price, or is that not considered to be relevant? 

Thanks!

http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue

[SaintFlow]

OMG sell sell sell! 
Greece voted *for* the Euro at last today. 

LOL sounds cute.

By voting for the euro greece will actually destroy the euro so start buy buy long term!!!!

[TraderTimm]

OMG sell sell sell! 
Greece voted *for* the Euro at last today. 

LOL sounds cute.

By voting for the euro greece will actually destroy the euro so start buy buy long term!!!!

You're right, SaintFlow.

All this does is allow funds to flow into their nation without any hope of paying it back. Once the flow of funds stops, then they'll be forced to make hard choices, which may still include defaulting on everyone.

I'd say this is a good grace period to get funds invested in bitcoin. Anyone who thinks Greece and the rest of the Euro-nations don't have any impact on our financial system is going to be in for a large surprise when it finally unravels.