Difficulty increase - 60%

[SgtSpike]

Good lord, this graph is scary:



Based off of that, hashing growth isn't going to taper off any time soon.  I only hope that USD valuation can keep up to some extent... else by three difficulty increases from now (assuming difficulty in the ~900k range), mining won't even pay for my electricity!

[mjsbuddha]

I get that there will still be a block solved very 10 minutes or so. the thing is, 60% will be taken away from the miners CURRENTLY selling on mt gox and given to the new miners. some of the new miners will inevitably sell their coins and some will inevitably not. If 100% of the new miners sold their coins then there would be no change in supply, otherwise, supply will go down when difficulty goes up. When supply goes down, price goes up.

[MoonShadow]

Based off of that, hashing growth isn't going to taper off any time soon.  I only hope that USD valuation can keep up to some extent... else by three difficulty increases from now (assuming difficulty in the ~900k range), mining won't even pay for my electricity!

The rise in difficulty is driven by the rise in relative value, not the other way around.

[SgtSpike]

Based off of that, hashing growth isn't going to taper off any time soon.  I only hope that USD valuation can keep up to some extent... else by three difficulty increases from now (assuming difficulty in the ~900k range), mining won't even pay for my electricity!

The rise in difficulty is driven by the rise in relative value, not the other way around.

I know that.  That doesn't mean I can't hope that the USD valuation keeps up with difficulty.

[tomcollins]

Good lord, this graph is scary:

Based off of that, hashing growth isn't going to taper off any time soon.  I only hope that USD valuation can keep up to some extent... else by three difficulty increases from now (assuming difficulty in the ~900k range), mining won't even pay for my electricity!

Eventually, it will barely cover electricity costs.  That's kind of the point.  But by that point, if you are one of the most power efficient miners, you will remain (the less efficient will stop mining).  That is assuming they pay for their electricity and act rationally.

I'll take the under for 900k difficulty in 3 increases.  Eventually difficulty will be limited by how much is actually being produced that can mine, and that doesn't increase exponentially.

[k]

Same exposure drives difficulty up too.

totally understand that logically price drives difficulty and not the other way around but was thinking that because starting to mine is easier than buying bitcoins (at the moment) has the recent glut of press exposure driven hashing rate (and thus the soon to be increased difficulty) more than it has driven a price rise.

we may still see a price rise due to the press exposure but it could be delayed compared to the more immediate impact on hashing rate.
what do you think?

[Stephen Gornick]

Is there some page somewhere that lists the difficulty history? And possibly, what date/time each jump occurred?

  Google Docs Spreadsheet
  http://bit.ly/fylSv8

[zpinto]

Sorry! I kind of dumb! but...what do you mean i will lose 60% of my bitcoins? are they going to remove my coins?

[k]

Sorry! I kind of dumb! but...what do you mean i will lose 60% of my bitcoins? are they going to remove my coins?

it means that the difficulty of generating bitcoins is going to increase by ~60%. so unless you upgrade your mining hardware it will take 60% longer time to generate the same amount of coins as you currently are.

[zpinto]

Sorry! I kind of dumb! but...what do you mean i will lose 60% of my bitcoins? are they going to remove my coins?

it means that the difficulty of generating bitcoins is going to increase by ~60%. so unless you upgrade your mining hardware it will take 60% longer time to generate the same amount of coins as you currently are.

ohh! right! thanks!
I have a 6950, so if price doesnt go up with this new difficulty, i might step out when the next difficulty comes, because it wont compensate cause of the electricity bill.

[clonedone]

yeah with 1.2 g/hash mining speed i can only get 4.5 coins per day @ 6.5 usd per coin,  29 dollars a day is not really worth it anymore

[Serge]

Same exposure drives difficulty up too.

totally understand that logically price drives difficulty and not the other way around but was thinking that because starting to mine is easier than buying bitcoins (at the moment) has the recent glut of press exposure driven hashing rate (and thus the soon to be increased difficulty) more than it has driven a price rise.

we may still see a price rise due to the press exposure but it could be delayed compared to the more immediate impact on hashing rate.
what do you think?

That's understood, difficulty doesn't affect value in a straight way to drive cost up or down.

I think you are right, if any new funds may be flowing in after recent press exposure, we haven't seen impact yet.

[k]

yeah with 1.2 g/hash mining speed i can only get 4.5 coins per day @ 6.5 usd per coin,  29 dollars a day is not really worth it anymore

you already own the hardware I'm guessing. Is $29 dollars/day still not more than the electricity costs? why would it not be worth it any more.

excuse me if I'm missing some sarcasm. can't tell either way.

[SgtSpike]

yeah with 1.2 g/hash mining speed i can only get 4.5 coins per day @ 6.5 usd per coin,  29 dollars a day is not really worth it anymore

you already own the hardware I'm guessing. Is $29 dollars/day still not more than the electricity costs? why would it not be worth it any more.

excuse me if I'm missing some sarcasm. can't tell either way.

Hey, don't try to convince him otherwise... the fewer people mining, the more bitcoins for the rest of us. 

[rezin777]

Hey, don't try to convince him otherwise... the fewer people mining, the more bitcoins for the rest of us. 

Hey, I like mining, but I like Bitcoins more. I say let the miners come (as long as they don't all go in one pool...), I want network security. I want it to cost billions of dollars to even come close to hurting the Bitcoin network.

[SlaveInDebt]

Where on earth is all this new hardware coming from?

[theboos]

Blocks per hour before the difficulty change: 12.5
Blocks per hour after a 60% increase in difficulty: 12.6

Can someone explain to me why there was essentially no change? Shouldn't the number of blocks per hour immediately drop by a significant amount, and then recover?

[rowbot]

Where on earth is all this new hardware coming from?

Just imagine your avatar speaking this. It's worth it.

[rezin777]

Where on earth is all this new hardware coming from?

Seti@home recently took a hit, I think. And I'm sure there are F@H people mining with nVidia as long as the exchange rate makes it worthwhile.

Why does it make you unhappy? Yeah, I like easy money too, but I would much rather see the Bitcoin network grow as strong as possible.

[MoonShadow]

Where on earth is all this new hardware coming from?

Presumedly from ATI's manufacturing plants in China.