How do you think the auction will affect the price, why?

[LewiesMan]

How do you think the auction will affect the price, why?

I think we will see a fall to sub $350 then a pump to $450.

[turvarya]

which auction?

[LewiesMan]

which auction?

http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

[ChuckBuck]

I too think there will be a "Dump and Pump", pretty much a reverse of what's been going on lately.

Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.

Just my 2 Satoshis.

[raskul]

I too think there will be a "Dump and Pump", pretty much a reverse of what's been going on lately.

Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.

Just my 2 Satoshis.

this. completely agree with those 2 satoshi and couldn't put it more succinctly myself.

OR....

massive dump of all auctioned coins immediately, causing a heavy crash and snowball effect throughout the bitcoin network.

[Elwar]

I will miss Bitcoin...


when it goes to da mooon!!!

[Q7]

Great...another one. I bet just like in July we can see a sudden price drop. But this time it might be different cause we are at the 300 support level so probably after that it will be a quick rebound back to 400-ish. If i knew earlier about the auction i would hold off my btc purchase.

[lihuajkl]

I think it in a different scenario. The auction will go smoothly and many bitcoin believers are competing in the auction. They will be auctioned off at high price, which will be positive sentiment for the market. Many people will rush to buy more bitcoins in the open market and it will lead to dramatical increase of the price.

[The Chainmaker]

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.  I doubt this time people will be so jittery. I don't expect it to change much

[DannyHamilton]

- snip - I think we will see a fall to sub $350 then a pump to $450.

I ask you your very own question:

- snip -
why?
- snip -

As for the rest of you:

- snip -
Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.
- snip -

- snip -
this. completely agree with those 2 satoshi and couldn't put it more succinctly myself.
- snip -

- snip -
massive dump of all auctioned coins immediately, causing a heavy crash and snowball effect throughout the bitcoin network.
- snip -

- snip -
just like in July we can see a sudden price drop.
- snip -

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.
- snip -

Lets take a quick look at what ACTUALLY happened last time, instead of relying on possibly faulty memories...

Last time, the auction started on June 27 and ended on June 30.  Here's the price history from the week before until the week after (June 20 through July 7):

https://i.imgur.com/x8ed6VF.png

[LewiesMan]

- snip - I think we will see a fall to sub $350 then a pump to $450.

I ask you your very own question:

- snip -
why?
- snip -

As for the rest of you:

- snip -
Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.
- snip -

- snip -
this. completely agree with those 2 satoshi and couldn't put it more succinctly myself.
- snip -

- snip -
massive dump of all auctioned coins immediately, causing a heavy crash and snowball effect throughout the bitcoin network.
- snip -

- snip -
just like in July we can see a sudden price drop.
- snip -

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.
- snip -

Lets take a quick look at what ACTUALLY happened last time, instead of relying on possibly faulty memories...

Last time, the auction started on June 27 and ended on June 30.  Here's the price history from the week before until the week after (June 20 through July 7):

Why? People will use the situation to their advantage and make an artificial dump then pump. (this occurs with most big news stories relating to btc, a big market movement is created ''artificially'' by a few people (not the actual market))

[cellard]

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.  I doubt this time people will be so jittery. I don't expect it to change much

I dont remember much movement over past auctions.

[LewiesMan]

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.  I doubt this time people will be so jittery. I don't expect it to change much

I dont remember much movement over past auctions.

From what I remember it wasn't much movement ($50 or so) view the graph above. Everyone still got excited though.

[Fabrizio89]

It depends, last time we didn't know at what price bitcoins were sold, we just knew that some of the bidders made very low offers in respect to the daily price. Even if this time the price will be disclosed I don't think it will affect the price that much if not for a brief period: important thing is that those bitcoins are bought and put to good use.

[LewiesMan]

It depends, last time we didn't know at what price bitcoins were sold, we just knew that some of the bidders made very low offers in respect to the daily price. Even if this time the price will be disclosed I don't think it will affect the price that much if not for a brief period: important thing is that those bitcoins are bought and put to good use.

Not bought by a bear who just wants to sell them. 

[Bitcoins101]

- snip - I think we will see a fall to sub $350 then a pump to $450.

I ask you your very own question:

- snip -
why?
- snip -

As for the rest of you:

- snip -
Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.
- snip -

- snip -
this. completely agree with those 2 satoshi and couldn't put it more succinctly myself.
- snip -

- snip -
massive dump of all auctioned coins immediately, causing a heavy crash and snowball effect throughout the bitcoin network.
- snip -

- snip -
just like in July we can see a sudden price drop.
- snip -

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.
- snip -

Lets take a quick look at what ACTUALLY happened last time, instead of relying on possibly faulty memories...

Last time, the auction started on June 27 and ended on June 30.  Here's the price history from the week before until the week after (June 20 through July 7):

https://i.imgur.com/x8ed6VF.png

People were new to the concept back then, though. When the news first broke nobody thought the market could handle 30,000-200,000 bitcoins. The relief when they were sold for somewhere around market price to a hodler caused a foolishly bullish pump, which clearly didn't last long.

These auctions are routine now. Nobody thinks it's the end of the world each time a new auction is announced. Therefore, there will be no relief and a pump when sell near market - the only thing that can happen is they sell lower than people expected, which could potentially cause a price decrease.

This is of course ignoring any possible pre-auction manipulation.

There are so many questions marks. We have 170,000 BTC to go from the US Marshalls - it actually doesn't seem like the market is handling these auctions very well, considering we're at 2/3 of the price when the first auction was announced. Unless the overall trajectory of the market goes from bearish to bullish (face the facts, we've been in a pure bear market since the double top last winter, despite a few bumps here and there), these auctions are just going to continue to significantly push the price down.

Satoshi is mortal. Say what you will, but almost nobody is throwing away that much money. Do people here really expect his coins to never be sold or used for their intended purpose [currency]? Is that realistic or just wishful thinking? Sure, maybe not this year, or next year, but someday it will happen. Until it does, his coins will remain a question mark scarring the decentralization of Bitcoin.

I honestly would feel more bullish about Bitcoin long-term if he dumped just dumped all his coins on the market in one fell swoop. Sure, the price would suffer short-term, but it could recover long-term.

[DannyHamilton]

Satoshi is mortal. Say what you will, but almost nobody is throwing away that much money. Do people here really expect his coins to never be sold or used for their intended purpose [currency]? Is that realistic or just wishful thinking? Sure, maybe not this year, or next year, but someday it will happen. Until it does, his coins will remain a question mark scarring the decentralization of Bitcoin.

Like you said, Satoshi is mortal.

As such, there is a reasonable chance that he is already dead and failed to notify is friends or family about his creation and his private keys.  Therefore, it is quite possible that those bitcoins will never be moved at all.

[sniveling]

Unless the overall trajectory of the market goes from bearish to bullish (face the facts, we've been in a pure bear market since the double top last winter, despite a few bumps here and there), these auctions are just going to continue to significantly push the price down.

The bear whale briefly pushed the price down, but we had a nice rally straight afterwards and the price has not been pushed down that low since. It's a positive sign if someone can dump that many coins and we get a rally straight afterwards.

[PolarPoint]

I think the auction will be won at above market price. Simply because it is difficult to reliably buy large amounts of bitcoin for large investors. This auction is a great opportunity for them. This doesn't mean potential investors will not dump the bitcoin they now have to lower the market price.

[raskul]

I think the auction will be won at above market price. Simply because it is difficult to reliably buy large amounts of bitcoin for large investors. This auction is a great opportunity for them. This doesn't mean potential investors will not dump the bitcoin they now have to lower the market price.

no chance, feds will sell em off as cheaply as they can