Nxtblg (OP)
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December 09, 2014, 05:22:16 AM
Last edit: December 18, 2014, 03:35:39 AM by Nxtblg |
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From the quiet NFD ecosystem comes a new way to have fun! This NFD Asset, named NFD649Pool, brings the fun and excitement of anticipating a big win in Canada's legendary Lotto 6/49!
Announcing...
The NFD Lotto 6/49
Lottery Pool!
Draw Date December 10th, 2014 ~10:15 PM ET
18 Tickets
NFD649Pool ASSET DETAILS:
NAME: NFD649Pool
ASSET ID NUMBER: 13392232764691317635
ISSUING ACCOUNT: NFD-T4MX-HYMV-2J6M-AR9KM
NUMBER OF UNITS: 1'800
BACKING: 18 pre-bought Lotto 6/49 tickets. See below for photographic proof.
BENEFIT: Each unit of NFD649Pool entitles the holder to a 1/1800th share of any prizes that the 18 tickets win on the December 10th, 2014 Lotto 6/49 draw at ~10:15 PM ET. If the total winnings do not exceed the original value of the tickets, all of them will be recycled into new tickets for the next draw. The value of the total winnings include any free tickets won. If the winnings do exceed the original $54, then $54 of the pot will be spent for another eighteen tickets for the next draw and the net winnings will be distributed to the Asset holders in NFD. For this purpose, free tickets count as $3 in winnings and will be subtracted from the amount rolled into the next draw. All dollar values are in Canadian dollars, known affectionately as "loonies."
PRICE: 3'500 NFD Per Unit. See below for why.
To see the orderbook for this Asset: fire up your NFD wallet, click "Asset Exchange" on the left-hand menu, look for the "Add Asset" button in the top-right area of the wallet, click it, put in the Asset ID number 13392232764691317635 into the form, and the orderbook for NFD649Pool will show. You will see two orders from me, the Asset Issuer. The first is the offering of the Asset; it'll be at the posted price of 3'500 NFD per unit. The second is a bid for the entire issue at the price of 1'855 NFD. I put in that bid because - to be frank - Lotto 6/49's house edge is a really lousy 53%. Since this Asset is for fun, I put in the bid to even things up to the house edge we're used to...after assuming that the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Commission rounded the 47% payout percentage upwards. 
If you want me to prove I have control of the Asset Issuer account NFD-T4MX-HYMV-2J6M-AR9KM: just send me your own NFD Account ID and I'll send you an Arbitrary Message that'll prove it's my account. If you don't have one, just download a new wallet here.
PRICING:
I settled on the price of 3'500 NFD for each unit of this Asset through the following calculations: The value of the eighteen pre-bought 6/49 tickets is 54 Canadian dollars, or loonies. The low ask at Vault of Satoshi, where I'm a regular, is $417.95671046 as of the time of this writing. The low ask at Bter for NFD is currently 2 satoshis, which means 50 million NFD can be bought for one Bitcoin. At that low ask, the $54 worth of tickets is 0.1292 BTC. Multiplying this figure by 50 million NFD per BTC pegs the total value of the Asset at 6'459'999 NFD. Dividing that total by 1'800 gives a per-unit value of 3'589 NFD. To provide a cushion for Bitcoin market fluctuations, and to make life a little easier on myself, I knocked down that per-unit figure to 3'500 NFD.
PROOF OF TICKET PURCHASE:
Here they are, courtesy of my cell phone:
Ten...  plus eight:  equals eighteen.
If you want proof of my control over the tickets, just as for a duo of selfies with me holding up each. I'll take 'em, upload 'em to the NFD649Pool Photo Album, and post 'em here in a timely manner with a minimum of cursing.
THE LUCKY NUMBERS:
As the photos above show, the NFD649Pool's (hopefully) lucky numbers are:
10, 17, 31, 35, 38, 49
02, 07, 15, 20, 24, 33
10, 11, 12, 26, 40, 48
02, 10, 24, 27, 31, 47
05, 07, 17, 29, 32, 45
02, 05, 10, 25, 41, 48
06, 16, 29, 33, 42, 47
05, 11, 15, 40, 47, 48
15, 20, 31, 33, 36, 48
03, 11, 12, 18, 25, 43
07, 10, 14, 22, 29, 49
02, 05, 29, 30, 36, 43
04, 15, 25, 27, 28, 46
02, 11, 14, 29, 32, 34
26, 32, 33, 42, 46, 49
04, 21, 25, 33, 37, 42
12, 13, 26, 27, 37, 47
04, 25, 36, 37, 40, 45
Feel free to check this list against the photos above!
The numbers came from Lotto 6/49 "Quick Pick" option. Although it's not the kind of provably fair we're used to, it's good enough for government work.
HOW LOTTO 6/49 WORKS - HOW WE WIN:
Sales of tickets for the December 10th draw come to a halt at 9 PM ET. Then, every player hunkers down to wait for the draw! The draw itself will take place about 75 minutes later, or ~10:15 PM ET. It's recorded, and the recording is webbed at the 6/49 Website. The winning numbers take about fifteen minutes to propagate to Canadian online media.
The draw machine will spit out seven numbers. Six of them are regular numbers and the seventh is a bonus number.
Here's what it takes for a ticket to win:
- If a ticket matches 2 out of the 6 regular numbers, it wins a free ticket.
- If a ticket matches 2 out of the 6 regular numbers plus the bonus number, it wins five Canadian dollars.
- If a ticket matches 3 out of the 6 regular numbers, it wins ten Canadian dollars.
These are the minor prizes, and they're fixed. The NFD649Pool has a good shot at winning at least one of then, prolonging the fun until the next draw at ~10:15 PM ET on Saturday, December 13 2014. But, the odds unfortunately say that it's very likely that the NFDLotto649PoolX's total take will be less than the $54 to start. Still, I got nuthin' to do on Saturday night, so... 
The amounts of the major prizes very from draw to draw. According to the rules, 40% of all sales between draws is set aside into a "Main Prize Fund." The winners of the major prizes split the allocations from the "Main Prize Fund" into each prize pot. So, instead of the fixed numbers above, the 6/49 Website gives these amounts:
- If a ticket matches 4 out of the 6 regular numbers, it wins a share of 9% of the Main Prize Fund or 3.6% of ticket sales.
- If a ticket matches 5 out of the 6 regular numbers, it wins a share of 5% of the Main Prize Fund or 2% of ticket sales.
- If a ticket matches 5 out of the 6 regular numbers plus the bonus number, it wins a share of 6% of the Main Prize Fund or 2.4% of ticket sales.
- If a ticket matches all 6 of the regular numbers, it wins a share of 79.5% of the Main Prize Fund or 31.8% of ticket sales.
The size of the share depend on the allocation to the prize category divided by the number of winners in that category. If no-one wins in a category, the un-won amount is rolled into the next draw to bump up the category's prize pot. Realistically, this roll-forward will only take place for the 6-out-of-6 grand prize.
Note: The Ontario Lottery And Gaming Corporation (OLG) gives the odds of winning the smallest substantial prize, the 4-out-of-6 prize, at approx. 1 in 1,033. For eighteen tickets, this means that the chances of me divvying up serious money is only about 1.73%. FYI.
The other 7% of total sales is thrown into a "Guaranteed Prize Draw." Winning this requires hitting ten numbers exactly, so the odds of winning it are close to infinitestimal. On the off-chance we strike it really lucky, the tickets' Guaranteed Prize Draw numbers are: 4003536401, 4003536402, 4003536403, 4003536404, 4003536405, 4003536406, 4003536407, 4003536408, 4003536409, 4003536410; and: 4003538101, 4003538102, 4003538103, 4003538104, 4003538105, 4003538106, 4003538107, 4003538108. Despite the daunting odds, one ticket sold in this draw period has to win the Guaranteed Prize for the draw. The OLG did not specify on its Website the algorithm or procedure for how the guarantee is implemented.
SALES CUT-OFF-TIME FOR THE DRAW:
As mentioned above, the sales cut-off day and time for this draw is December 10th, 2014 at 9 PM ET. At that time, all retailers have to stop selling tickets. To square with this policy, I'll be cancelling my issue offer at the same time. The buyback order at 1'855 NFD per unit, or 53% of the 3'500 NFD offer price, will stay where it is.
So...once it's 9 PM ET this December 10th, the suspense begins! Just to remind you, the official recording of the draw is accessible from this Webpage. Canadian online media will have the winning numbers webbed starting at about 10:30 PM ET.
In case you're not in that time zone, December 10th @ 9 PM ET is:
- 6 PM Pacific Time;
- 7 PM Mountain Time;
- 8 PM Central Time;
- 10 PM Atlantic Time;
- 10:30 PM Newfoundland Time (yes, they have their own time zone);
- December 11th @ 2 AM UTC;
- December 11th @ 3 AM Berlin (Central European) Time;
- December 11th @ 5 AM Moscow Standard Time;
- December 11th @ 10 AM Beijing and Shenzhen Time;
- December 11th @ 10 AM Philippines Time.
You can find the approximate draw time by adding one hour and fifteen minutes to the above times, or to the corresponding time in your time zone. If yours isn't listed, you can use this converter to find the time and day where you are. Select "December" "10" "2014" "21/9 Pm" for "Canada - Ontario - Toronto" in the first form and put your time zone in the second.
ASSET PAYOUT POLICY:
As mentioned above: if the gross winnings on the draw are less than 54 Canadian dollars, I'll roll the entire winnings into the next draw. I'll rinse and repeat until or unless the pool goes bust. The 1'855 NFD buyback order will stay up until I've bought back all of the issuance.
If the gross winnings are more than 54 Canadian dollars, I'll take $54 of the winnings - valuing any free tickets at $3 each - and roll it into eighteen more tickets for the next draw. I will then distribute the net winnings in NFD. Here's how:
If the net winnings are less than or equal to one Bitcoin's worth: I'll distribute the NFD directly from my account at the ask price of 2 satoshis per NFD. As the NFD Block Explorer shows, I'm good for more than 50 million NFD. Again: if you want me to prove I have control of the account NFD-T4MX-HYMV-2J6M-AR9KM, just send me a PM with your own Account ID and I'll send out an Arbitrary Message to your NFD account.
If the net winnings are more one Bitcoin's worth: Then, things get interesting! For a major prize, I have to claim it by either mailing the ticket in to the Ontario Lottery Corporation, Prize Office, at P.O. Box 877, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario Canada P6A 5N5 (<= C$10,000) or show up personally at the Prize Office (> $C10,000.) [Reference.] So here's the procedure I'll follow, once I recover from my hangover :
1). If I'm mailing the ticket, I'll send it via Canada Post XPressPost courier service. I'll take a picture of the receipt, upload it to the NFD649Pool Photo Album, and post the pic on this thread.
1a. If I'm showing up in person, I'll certainly take, upload and post pictures.
2) Once I get the cheque, I'll take a picture of it, upload it and post it here.
3). I'll deposit the cheque into my personal account and take a picture of the deposit receipt, which will be uploaded and shown here.
4). After buying or getting eighteen more tickets for the next draw, I will Interac-transfer the entire net winnings to Vault of Satoshi. This time, I'll provide screenshots to prove that I've transferred what I should.
5). Once the funds are in my Vault of Satoshi account, I'll use all of them to buy Bitcoin. Once I do, I'll withdraw them to this special Blockchain.info wallet that I've set up in case we get really lucky.  This new account is 1KBWqYaUFHV9pTixFu9cJSU4dynuyejaWi. Blockchain.info's record of this account shows 1 mBTC tucked in there as of the time of this writing. I put the dust in there so I can prove I have control of the account via one or more signed messages.
6). Once the funds are in the wallet, I'll send them up to Bter and buy NFD for the prize distribution. Each unit of NFD649Pool will be entitled to 1/1800 of all the NFD I buy, same as for net winnings equal to or less than one Bitcoin's worth. As per usual, I'll supply screenshots to prove that I'd doing what I'm saying.
7). If the net winnings aren't enough to blast through the sell wall at 2, I'll buy 'em all at once, withdraw and start distributing. If they are, I'll have to buy in stages in order to make sure that I get the most NFD for the Bitcoin. I won't move up to 3 until I'm reasonably sure that the sell wall at 2 is gone and won't regenerate. I'll be even more cautious about waiting until the 3 wall is dead in the water, as the people I bought from at 2 might well sell at 3 for a quick arbitrage profit. I promise I'll be cagey with the buys so as not to ignite an artificial pump that will collapse later. None of us need a "spontaneous" pump-and-dump...
8.) If I have to buy in stages, I'll distribute the payout in stages while keeping a payout journal here. If I don't, I'll shoot out the payouts all at once after I've withdrawn the NFD from Bter. If we are this lucky, you can keep track of the payout by reading the thread here and keeping track of my issuing account with the NFD Block Explorer.
9) Once I make sure that everyone's got their due, I'll go get drunk again. 
On the almost unimaginable chance that we win a huge amount, I'm open to discussion about the payout process.
DISCLOSURE OF 6/49 HOUSE EDGE:
As I noted above, the house edge for 6/49 is a lousy 53%: much, much higher than what we're used to. Much higher than those 1%-house-edge games that certain governments would like to outlaw for our own good.
This house edge, plus the overall odds structure of Lotto 6/49, mean that there's a good chance that this pool will go bust within two weeks. Please take this less-than-fun fact into advisement before buying any units. As I've explained earlier, I'm evening out the edge by offering to buy back every unit of NFD649Pool at 53% of the issue price.
But even if this experimental pool goes bust, we'll have a lot of fun along the way!
FINAL SUMMARY:
This Asset, NFD649Pool, is an experiment plus an excuse to have a little fun.  As the above pictures show, it's fully backed by eighteen Lotto 6/49 tickets that I purchased before issuing this Asset. Essentially, this Asset is a proof-of-concept for a lottery pool that's not restricted to the jurisdictional boundaries that lotteries normally are. It allows you to participate for very little, and it also allows us to have some fun on draw night!
Just to remind you, the basic terms of this NFD Asset are:
NAME: NFD649Pool
ASSET ID NUMBER: 13392232764691317635
ISSUING ACCOUNT: NFD-T4MX-HYMV-2J6M-AR9KM
NUMBER OF UNITS: 1'800
BACKING: 18 pre-bought Lotto 6/49 tickets. See above for photographic proof.
BENEFIT: Each unit of NFD649Pool entitles the holder to a 1/1800th share of any prizes that the 18 tickets win on the December 10th, 2014 Lotto 6/49 draw at ~10:15 PM ET. If the total winnings do not exceed the original value of the tickets, all of them will be recycled into new tickets for the next draw. The value of the total winnings include any free tickets won. If the winnings do exceed the original $54, then $54 of the pot will be spent for another eighteen tickets for the next draw and the net winnings will be distributed to the Asset holders in NFD. For this purpose, free tickets count as $3 in winnings and will be subtracted from the amount rolled into the next draw. All dollar values are in Canadian dollars, known affectionately as "loonies."
PRICE: 3'500 NFD Per Unit, with a buyback order placed at 1'855 NFD per unit. That buyback, intended to neutralize the awful house edge, will stay in place until or unless the entire issuance is back in my hands.
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