:

[chodpaba]

:

[wareen]

Thank you very much for sharing your results!

It would be great if you could elaborate a bit on this second variant, since its predictions seem much more consistent with my own estimates. Is it based on other inputs than 12WMA?

[marcus_of_augustus]

chodpaba; would you have an estimate for the average difficulty increase we are experiencing currently ... i.e. have done in recent past since Feb. and will expect to experience for next 2-3 months?

I'm looking for a good 'r' value for my rig lifetime total BTC output formula.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9561.0

a/(1-r)

[mestar]

While the next difficulty number will be around 350,000, the real difficulty is already at 500.000.

Just look at this chart. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

[CydeWeys]

I need it to hit 430K at least so I can win my bet    http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9158.0

[CydeWeys]

So, for a time horizon of about 3 months out (Block 145152):

Lower outlier (96% chance Difficulty is above this level): 799230
Lower quartile (75% chance Difficulty is above this level): 1547561
Median (50% chance Difficulty is above this level): 1874641
Upper quartile (75% chance Difficulty is above this level): 2601950
Upper outlier (4% chance Difficulty is above this level): 3945853

All the people still assembling mining rigs today need to see this data.

[tomcollins]

So, for a time horizon of about 3 months out (Block 145152):

Lower outlier (96% chance Difficulty is above this level): 799230
Lower quartile (75% chance Difficulty is above this level): 1547561
Median (50% chance Difficulty is above this level): 1874641
Upper quartile (75% chance Difficulty is above this level): 2601950
Upper outlier (4% chance Difficulty is above this level): 3945853

All the people still assembling mining rigs today need to see this data.

Well, people really need to take a hard look at the same raw data, which is available to everyone, and try to understand how it works out the way it does, just as I am. I'm not trying to make a case against mining, in fact, my projections are showing that there should be a new resurgence in mining interest months after the halving of the block bounty. It also shows one thing that should be important to everyone interested in Bitcoin... It will be in your best interest to own as many Bitcoins as you can by Jauary, 2013.

But people can price that in.  It's not like it will be a big surprise when that hits.

[epii]

Looks like your original model is the winner.  434,883 is slightly outside the upper quartile, but close.  Not very many other people predicted it would go so high.

[Cheeseman]

Looks like your original model is the winner.  434,883 is slightly outside the upper quartile, but close.  Not very many other people predicted it would go so high.

It shows that this last difficulty increase is indeed a statistical outlier.