SgtSpike
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Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
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July 07, 2012, 04:27:42 PM |
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Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.
Could you / someone explain your calculation of 3BTC a day for each Single ‘SC? When I calculate for 24h day with a 40960 MH/s (=40 GH/s ) with Deepbit it displays 21.17 BTC/24h:  He means the older singles I think. |
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MykelSilver
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July 07, 2012, 04:35:39 PM |
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Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.
Could you / someone explain your calculation of 3BTC a day for each Single ‘SC? When I calculate for 24h day with a 40960 MH/s (=40 GH/s ) with Deepbit it displays 21.17 BTC/24h: He means the older singles I think. Okay... thanks... It still sounds so unbelievable to me that you can earn that amount a day with an investment of $1300.... ! Even with half that amount you don't have to work anymore for income..... |
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SgtSpike
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Activity: 1400
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July 07, 2012, 04:40:20 PM |
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Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.
Could you / someone explain your calculation of 3BTC a day for each Single ‘SC? When I calculate for 24h day with a 40960 MH/s (=40 GH/s ) with Deepbit it displays 21.17 BTC/24h: He means the older singles I think. Okay... thanks... It still sounds so unbelievable to me that you can earn that amount a day with an investment of $1300.... ! Even with half that amount you don't have to work anymore for income..... It won't last for very long... |
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MykelSilver
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July 07, 2012, 04:44:32 PM |
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It won't last for very long...
Well, Maybe the quote ( http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ ) of BTC rises. This quote is not depended of the difficulty... EDIT: When this quote doubles, then the problem of devaluation does not exists  .. Right? |
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SgtSpike
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Merit: 1005
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July 07, 2012, 04:49:03 PM |
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It won't last for very long...
Well, Maybe the quote ( http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ ) of BTC rises. This quote is not depended of the difficulty... EDIT: When this quote doubles, then the problem of devaluation does not exists .. Right? I don't understand what you are saying. What I am talking about is how the difficulty will rise tenfold (at least) when people receive these ASIC's, so each one will make 1/10th of what it is currently projected to make. |
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MykelSilver
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July 07, 2012, 04:52:40 PM |
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I don't understand what you are saying.
At this moment you get $6.70 for each BTC. So when this quotes doubles, and your mining income halves, then the result revenue is still the same.... |
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Dargo
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Merit: 1000
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July 07, 2012, 04:54:07 PM |
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Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.
Could you / someone explain your calculation of 3BTC a day for each Single ‘SC? When I calculate for 24h day with a 40960 MH/s (=40 GH/s ) with Deepbit it displays 21.17 BTC/24h: He means the older singles I think. If you go back and read the post, he's not talking about the older singles. He's talking about what the SC singles would make at 40 Gh/s when difficulty is 6.8M and the block reward is 25. Here's the passage in full: "I think the initial deliveries of SC will be quite profitable for awhile, if for no other reason than BFL's ability to deliver them. Even if the singles do 40GH/s, it would take ~425 of them to double the network. Let's say the ship 425 at the end of October in the first batch and that at that point the difficulty is about the same as it is now, as is the price. Within a couple days, difficulty doubles. If no other singles ship out for two weeks, even with double difficulty that single would pay for itself in 2 1/2 weeks. Now imagine they ship 425 more in November and 425 more in late December. The block reward halves, and difficulty is now 6.8M. Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off." |
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MykelSilver
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July 07, 2012, 04:55:11 PM |
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What I am talking about is how the difficulty will rise tenfold (at least) when people receive these ASIC's, so each one will make 1/10th of what it is currently projected to make.
Do you really think that difficulty rise 10fold? I thought it doubled.... |
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Dargo
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Merit: 1000
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July 07, 2012, 05:05:02 PM |
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What I am talking about is how the difficulty will rise tenfold (at least) when people receive these ASIC's, so each one will make 1/10th of what it is currently projected to make.
Do you really think that difficulty rise 10fold? I thought it doubled.... I basically agree. Difficulty will probably go up 5-10x with the first shipment alone. |
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SgtSpike
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July 07, 2012, 08:03:11 PM |
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What I am talking about is how the difficulty will rise tenfold (at least) when people receive these ASIC's, so each one will make 1/10th of what it is currently projected to make.
Do you really think that difficulty rise 10fold? I thought it doubled.... It would only take 12 minirigs to double the current difficulty. It'll rise 10 fold very quickly, just based on the fact that there's 800+ orders. |
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MrTeal
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Merit: 1004
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July 07, 2012, 10:31:06 PM |
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What I am talking about is how the difficulty will rise tenfold (at least) when people receive these ASIC's, so each one will make 1/10th of what it is currently projected to make.
Do you really think that difficulty rise 10fold? I thought it doubled.... It would only take 12 minirigs to double the current difficulty. It'll rise 10 fold very quickly, just based on the fact that there's 800+ orders. It would take 120 minirigs to 10x the current difficulty. How long do you think it will take BFL to ship 120 minirigs (or 50 MRs and 1750 singles)? Alternately, 120 minirigs is $3.6M at current prices. Do you think BFL has almost four million worth of preorders? |
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Dargo
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July 07, 2012, 11:22:02 PM |
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Let's check in on the data we have so far: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89538.0^ at least 168 Gh/order. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0^ 215 Gh/order. At least 1152 orders by last reported. 1152 orders x 215 Gh/order = 248 Th ordered so far. 1152 orders x 168 Gh/order = 194 Th ordered so far. And going with the claim made that BFL suggested the first shipment was getting filled around 500 orders or so: 500 orders x 215 Gh/order = 108 Th in the first shipment. 500 orders x 168 Gh/order = 84 Th in the first shipment. I'm hoping both these estimates come out too high, but regardless it's clear that difficulty is going to ramp up at an insane pace. |
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jjshabadoo
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July 07, 2012, 11:25:24 PM |
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The problem in this whole thread is that no one knows what the hell will happen because of the company everyone is dealing with. THAT is the truth whether people want to hear it or not.
200 emails are too much to deal with based on hundreds of thousands of dollars in orders?
I'd love that f'in problem in my business. Hi, yes temp agency, please send me ten people at $20 per hour for a few weeks please.
I answer, in detail, at least 20-30 emails per day myself in my company, plus another 20-30 personal emails. This doesn't take me more than a couple hours AT MOST.
Jesus, when are people going to at least DEMAND the customer service they deserve? Has there ever been anything like this where people are willing to throw thousands at an unproven company with a terrible track record just to make a few bucks?
I think that's called gambling, which of course is what everyone is and has been doing with BFL.
Look at the current mini rig trap for example. 15K product which will be obsoleted by the same company you purchased it from in 3 months and you STILL don't even have the damn thing yet.
They have already had your 15k for how long? 3 months at least? You don't think you funded their ASIC, which is in turn going to bite you in the ass unless you give them another 15K to hold onto for three months?
WOW, no wonder people called me crazy in my thread about how ASIC is not the same as previous gen mining technologies. Yet I am now seeing the same arguments I made being used by MANY BFL customers in this and other ASIC related threads.
Free Market, yep, that's the answer, even without nearly ANY information to make an informed purchase...Brilliant.
I sincerely hope this all works out for some of you, best case, many of you. Unfortunately, if you look at this objectively, a train wreck is on the horizon.
I don't care about mining anymore, I've made that personal choice, but I DO care about the future of bitcoin and would LOVE to see a petahash network we can all work off to increase adoption.
Mining is just the birthing phase for now folks, but if the baby is born with two heads...
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MrTeal
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July 08, 2012, 03:27:43 AM |
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Let's check in on the data we have so far: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89538.0^ at least 168 Gh/order. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0^ 215 Gh/order. At least 1152 orders by last reported. 1152 orders x 215 Gh/order = 248 Th ordered so far. 1152 orders x 168 Gh/order = 194 Th ordered so far. And going with the claim made that BFL suggested the first shipment was getting filled around 500 orders or so: 500 orders x 215 Gh/order = 108 Th in the first shipment. 500 orders x 168 Gh/order = 84 Th in the first shipment. I'm hoping both these estimates come out too high, but regardless it's clear that difficulty is going to ramp up at an insane pace. Your numbers make no sense, and you're basing them on a huge number of assumptions, not the least of which is that because the first SC order is X and the last is Y, there have been X-Y SC orders. How many of these do you think are interspersed in their order book from the mad rush at the start? | Order Information | Buyer Information | | Created: Sun, 08 Jul 2012 03:18:42 GMT | ABC ABC | | Order Number: 2961 | 123 ABC St | | Order Amount: 163 USD = 24.2433 BTC | Nowhere, OVER THERE 12345 | | 123@abc.com |
Put it another way, 108TH with a 3/30/67 Jalapeno/Single/MR spread would be $3.4M. Ask any small business owner how easy and quick the transition from being a $500k/year volume to several million, and then reevaluate how likely it is that BFL will be able to push out $3-4M in product in the span of a few months. I should start another bets of bitcoin on whether the network hashrate will be over 100TH/s two months after BFL releases their ASICs. It would be interesting to see how many bets and how large are placed on each side. |
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SgtSpike
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July 08, 2012, 04:23:29 AM |
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Lol, JJ, continuing on your ranting as always. If you don't like the company, don't buy from them. Why do you have to crap on every BFL thread you find?
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kano
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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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July 09, 2012, 02:48:35 AM |
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Hmm I guess two things that no one seems to factor in is that there is a limit to how much BTC is generated per month that gets given out to everyone on the planet - and also how much of that can be cashed in without killing the price ... Though, BFL themselves seem to factor that into how they are doing this  |
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ajareselde
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Merit: 1000
Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin
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July 22, 2012, 09:45:23 AM |
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Can someone please check can i order butterfly labs products from Croatia?
i see this in FAQ : "Our export control restriction prohibits the export of our products to AT designated countries as specified by the US Department of Commerce."
how can i know if i can order something? would be stupid to order and pay and not to recieve..
can i get some assist please?
thanks
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BFL-Engineer
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July 22, 2012, 01:53:22 PM |
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Can someone please check can i order butterfly labs products from Croatia?
i see this in FAQ : "Our export control restriction prohibits the export of our products to AT designated countries as specified by the US Department of Commerce."
how can i know if i can order something? would be stupid to order and pay and not to recieve..
can i get some assist please?
thanks
There are no restrictions regarding shipment to croatia. Regards, BF Labs Inc. |
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Inspector 2211
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July 22, 2012, 02:15:19 PM |
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AFAIK, there are restrictions shipping to Cuba, North Korea, Iran and maybe one or two others.
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RHA
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July 25, 2012, 05:51:43 PM |
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How much power do these SC devices use?
I don't think there is any info about that yet, just that the Jalapeno is powered via USB so that's like 5V ? Several days ago the USB Promoter Group announced availabity of the new standard - USB Power Delivery: http://www.usb.org/press/USB_Power_Delivery_Spec_Completion_FINAL.pdf100 W over USB... Now we know what BFL had to wait for.  100 W rated Jalapeno could be quite a powerful coffee warmer... Boiler? And one could say the requirements of 1143 W for Single SC and 28.5 kW for Mini Rig SC are far more realistic than before... |
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