Speculate on year 2013

[knight22]

I'm wondering how the market will react in early 2013 when the emission of bitcoin will be cut in half. How much do you think the bitcoin will worth?

[Gladamas]

  I was thinking the same thing!

Well, let's see, demand stays the same and supply goes down, prices go up. The question is, how much?

[BoardGameCoin]

01 2013: Mean $8 USDBTC, Range: $6-$11
02 2013: $8.50, $7-$11
03 2013: $9.00, $8-$10
04 2013: $9.50, $9-$10
05 2013: $11.00, $9-$15
06 2013: $14.00, $10-$19.50
07 2013: $20.00, $10-$35
08 2013: $30.00, $20-$40
09 2013: $50.00, $30-$60
10 2013: $100.00 $50-$120
11 2012: $120.00 $100-$130
12 2012: $145.00 $120-$150


This presumes that we build gradually with some momentum until we start to attract the real money at $50/BTC and $2 mil free float on the exchanges

-bgc

[knight22]

I was thinking the same thing!

Well, let's see, demand stays the same and supply goes down, prices go up. The question is, how much?

Probably the double

[Beleth]

I

I was thinking the same thing!

Well, let's see, demand stays the same and supply goes down, prices go up. The question is, how much?

Probably the double

I would not put my money on it to be honest
So far btc is really unpredictable and i don't think that anything will change in new year.

[szuetam]

I'll bet that next year 1BTC > 10USD.

[Kazimir]

I'll bet that next year 1BTC > 10USD.

I think if nothing bad happens (like another stupid exchange hack or something) we might even see it this year.

EUR/BTC recently went from ± 3.9 to ± 5.4 (that's almost 40% up!) in roughly one month.

[D_Steve595]

Gotta wonder how long this stability will last. Hopefully enough to make more economists aware of its usefulness. There's little sense in showing off an economy that fluctuates by a factor of 10x every few weeks.

[paraipan]

01 2013: Mean $8 USDBTC, Range: $6-$11
02 2013: $8.50, $7-$11
03 2013: $9.00, $8-$10
04 2013: $9.50, $9-$10
05 2013: $11.00, $9-$15
06 2013: $14.00, $10-$19.50
07 2013: $20.00, $10-$35
08 2013: $30.00, $20-$40
09 2013: $50.00, $30-$60
10 2013: $100.00 $50-$120
11 2013: $120.00 $100-$130
12 2013: $145.00 $120-$150


This presumes that we build gradually with some momentum until we start to attract the real money at $50/BTC and $2 mil free float on the exchanges

-bgc

FTFY, round numbers yeah  

[AndrewBUD]

Nice


I damn well hope so

[szuetam]

I'll bet that next year 1BTC > 10USD.

I think if nothing bad happens (like another stupid exchange hack or something) we might even see it this year.

EUR/BTC recently went from ± 3.9 to ± 5.4 (that's almost 40% up!) in roughly one month.

Don't you think that now it is resistant for local (by local I mean some single page like exchange or so) problems or fails proofed by last course insensitivity for some minor local fails.

Would you agree?

[Wasi]

It doesn't really matter what the rates will be in 2013. Try to think in the long term and I hope the most in here will agree that bitcoin will succeed over time. But for a quick answer: Everything points to a higher USD/BTC rate in 2013 than now as long as the usage of decentralized 'currencies' do not become illegal until next year. To be speculative: I choose something between 20 and 30 USD for 2013. The government has the power to stop/break the best inventions for a short time but it never worked in the long term. So it's also possible that bitcoins will loose a lot of the actual value in 2013 but the chance that the value increases over time is very high.

Bitcoin has a huge potential because of the decentralization, speed for transactions, possible security and privacy in it's design. Anonymity isn't really a part when it comes to the standard user. Non-technical users will never understand what bitcoin really is, but as soon as there are a lot of great software and web services available that makes it easier and saver for everyone to use bitcoins (not just for transactions but also for storing 'money') than anything else before, a lot more companies will start using it and any FIAT currency (not just the USD) will loose a lot of it's value and all the actual bitcoin holders will be billionaires ;). It's still just a construct for trading money instead of a fully accepted 'currency' because no one knows about the government's reaction (especially these days) and so it's very risky to store money within bitcoins in a short term. They will try to fight against such decentralized networks like they try it every time without any success in the long term. Every fight against it will make it stronger. I think it will be a very long fight for the whole bitcoin economy but I also think that bitcoins will win the fight and be the currency of the future sooner or later. So try to think in the long term and the chance that your bitcoins become more and more valuable over time is very high.

Keep in mind that all this is just speculation and the way I see it. I'm not a finance expert.

[pereiraex]

By the way, is there any specific reasoning why difficulty will be ramped up in 2013? Coinciding with any event?

[Gladamas]

By the way, is there any specific reasoning why difficulty will be ramped up in 2013? Coinciding with any event?

ASICs offering a much greater hash rate for a lower price, as seen here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87934.0

Plus the block reward will be halved some time in December from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

[bananahammock]

I'm wondering how the market will react in early 2013 when the emission of bitcoin will be cut in half. How much do you think the bitcoin will worth?

$8 for sure until late nov 2013 for a slow climb to $11.

Take that to the bank.

[AmazonStuff]

I think it's going to be faster...

[Michail1]

I believe bitcoin is scheduled to show at CES 2012 (Jan 2013) - So, that will bring in a lot of interest.