|
tins
|
 |
December 27, 2014, 07:16:23 PM |
|
I agree, the hashrate really skyrocketed the last couple of days. I definitely thought it would go back up but not like this..
It is becoming more mainstream, which adds to tons more people putting in mining contracts or small miners hoping to strike something. I feel as if the price remain in the low $300's that diff will go down. Now, if BTC value rises over $500's again, we should expect insane difficulty spikes again. 500 USD is expected to cross by the end of this financial year... at least once. We can hope. I don't see a specific reason for that dramatic of a rise. The last time we saw that kind of spike was due to MtGox bot manipulating the market and creating false/unnatural valuations. One legit reason I could see the market moving up so high would be the Winkle twins granted approval for their enterprise and Wall Street traders and hedge funds managers getting involved. |
|
|
|
|
sumantso
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
|
|
December 27, 2014, 08:13:29 PM |
|
The hashrate will continue to decline leading to a drop in difficulty. Unless the community wakes up and starts to give at least 50% of its effort in integrating Bitcoin into payroll systems, we're going to see Bitcoin slowly fade away into the night. The only way to equalize the downward price pressure caused by the growth of BTC accepting merchants, is to pay people in Bitcoin. No way. Even if the price continues to drop, newer hardware with higher efficiency is going to come on the market and increase the difficulty. I think Q1 2015 was slated to be the time for the release of the next gen ASICs. |
|
|
|
nwfella
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1000
Well hello there!
|
|
December 28, 2014, 07:45:44 AM |
|
The hashrate will continue to decline leading to a drop in difficulty. Unless the community wakes up and starts to give at least 50% of its effort in integrating Bitcoin into payroll systems, we're going to see Bitcoin slowly fade away into the night. The only way to equalize the downward price pressure caused by the growth of BTC accepting merchants, is to pay people in Bitcoin. No way. Even if the price continues to drop, newer hardware with higher efficiency is going to come on the market and increase the difficulty. I think Q1 2015 was slated to be the time for the release of the next gen ASICs. Doesn't even look like this difficulty adjustment is going to be a negative one at this point :/ |
¯¯̿̿¯̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿̿)͇̿̿)̿̿̿̿ '̿̿̿̿̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪̀●́)=o/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ ̿̿
Gimme the crypto!!
|
|
|
SimplisticStu
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
♥Bitcoin-Ethereum-Ripple♥
|
|
December 28, 2014, 10:42:58 AM |
|
The hashrate will continue to decline leading to a drop in difficulty. Unless the community wakes up and starts to give at least 50% of its effort in integrating Bitcoin into payroll systems, we're going to see Bitcoin slowly fade away into the night. The only way to equalize the downward price pressure caused by the growth of BTC accepting merchants, is to pay people in Bitcoin. No way. Even if the price continues to drop, newer hardware with higher efficiency is going to come on the market and increase the difficulty. I think Q1 2015 was slated to be the time for the release of the next gen ASICs. Doesn't even look like this difficulty adjustment is going to be a negative one at this point :/ The conversation started on Dec 13th when the predicted difficulty was -10% which prompted this thread. Since then the POW for the paycoin has finished and all hashpower has naturally returned to bitcoin, hence the current difficulty expectation of +3.33% (as of the time of this post) which again was to be expected |
|
|
|
|
aurel57
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
|
|
December 28, 2014, 01:01:17 PM |
|
It will go up and will not come down unless the price of BTC crashes. I think we will see a point of more energy efficient equipment keeping a lot of people in the game. But there has to be a point of some large farms running old equipment that will either shut down or swap out to newer miners. I just dont think we will see the huge increases we saw in the past.
|
|
|
|
|
|
tins
|
|
December 28, 2014, 05:31:01 PM |
|
It will go up and will not come down unless the price of BTC crashes. I think we will see a point of more energy efficient equipment keeping a lot of people in the game. But there has to be a point of some large farms running old equipment that will either shut down or swap out to newer miners. I just dont think we will see the huge increases we saw in the past.
I agree that miners will continue to evolve and become increasingly energy efficient, but the price point will also increase to a level that individuals are no longer in the game and the network will be solely run by large mining farms and organizations. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
philipma1957
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4158
Merit: 8042
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
December 29, 2014, 04:21:20 PM |
|
3 or 4 ways can be used to predict the number. some sites use previous 1000+ blocks some use previous 500 + blocks some use every block since the last adjustment about 1950 as of now http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ as of this post this site says new diff will be 40,186,743,801 you can be safe to say 40.1 to 40.9 will be it next time. |
|
|
|
|
stonerider
|
|
December 29, 2014, 10:54:49 PM |
|
diff is poised to go up in 10-20% chunks each and every time in 2015. Bitmain selling S5 and the upcoming S6 in Q1'2015, Spondoolies selling SP20 and the upcoming models. Expect huge rise in total hashrate in the coming days. Miners will continue to mine. Old mining hardware are sold to unsuspecting noobies, they don't just get turned off and forgotten.
|
|
|
|
|
cloverme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1057
SpacePirate.io
|
|
December 30, 2014, 02:14:17 AM |
|
It will go up and will not come down unless the price of BTC crashes. I think we will see a point of more energy efficient equipment keeping a lot of people in the game. But there has to be a point of some large farms running old equipment that will either shut down or swap out to newer miners. I just dont think we will see the huge increases we saw in the past.
Agreed, I think we will see it go up and down in small percentages while the price continues to fall. The farms have to pay themselves off so I don't see them upgrading anytime soon. It should be an interesting 2015... The next great halving in 2016 should be interesting as well. |
|
|
|
|
newIndia (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2226
Merit: 1049
|
|
January 02, 2015, 10:09:59 PM |
|
How things have turned out in last few days... https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorNext difficulty retarget occurs at block 338687.0 (eta 9.5 days): 45304559740.5 / +11.5% [est.] https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyEstimated Next Difficulty: 45,267,844,451 (+11.38%) Adjust time: After 1518 Blocks, About 9.6 days So, I assume, at 300+ USD, miners are still making profit. |
|
|
|
RocketSingh
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1662
Merit: 1050
|
|
January 12, 2015, 05:45:08 PM |
|
Difficulty jump is +8.19%. Cex.io is closing its cloud mining operation. I guess, more coming. |
|
|
|
|
BTCish
|
|
January 12, 2015, 08:51:26 PM |
|
Difficulty jump is +8.19%. Cex.io is closing its cloud mining operation. I guess, more coming. cex.io is really closing its farms ? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
BTCish
|
|
January 12, 2015, 09:08:48 PM |
|
sad news.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
newIndia (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2226
Merit: 1049
|
|
January 15, 2015, 04:18:16 PM |
|
Already crossed 200. Dont forget Tim Draper bought Silk Road bitcoina when it was at 600+. He has highly paid financial advisory group. They are not all fool at predicting the future price. But, well, may be not tomorrow... |
|
|
|
kpitti
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1002
|
|
January 16, 2015, 08:27:18 PM |
|
When reading all these announcements of powering off miners and many cloud services I would expect that difficulty will go down. But waiting to happen.
|
|
|
|
|
alh
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1843
Merit: 1050
|
|
January 16, 2015, 08:52:02 PM |
|
Since difficulty adjustments are based on the amount of time required to solve 2016 blocks, downward adjustments must happen less often than upward ones. If the time required is less than 14 days, then the difficulty increases. Only if it takes longer than 14 days will will the difficulty decrease. In a sense the difficulty rises faster than it falls. There may also be some other limitations, but just based on the "14-day 2016 block" plan it falls slower than it rises.
|
|
|
|
|
|
