TH1BTC Speculation Thread - Bitfinex Cloud Mining Contract

[nrd525]

You obviously haven't read my argument about how the market was imperfect, or you do not understand it.

[1715481483]

1715481483

[1715481483]

1715481483

[odolvlobo]

You obviously haven't read my argument about how the market was imperfect, or you do not understand it.

I agree with your assessments of the market's imperfections. I don't agree that there was any manipulation.

[nrd525]

That is true, we don't know whether the outcome of inflated TH1 prices was intentional or not.  I guess from my point of view it doesn't really matter as you need to assume the worst (if the worst case leads to a large profit for someone and isn't too hard to do).  It could have been one person, or it could have just been a trend that got worse and worse (for instance a group of people might have felt that mining difficulty was not going to increase by as much as in the past - they were partially right, but we still saw an average of 5% difficulty increases over the contract's lifetime).

Though it is interesting that once BFX said they wouldn't allow anyone to manipulate the market that the price plunged so dramatically (30-40% in 1-2 days if I remember correctly).  Adding 100 swaps helped, but I don't think that was enough to correct the premium (and swaps had been added before without such a large correction).