difficulty predictions

I was looking through my difficulty prediction spreadsheets.

My July/August sheets had difficulty for mid December at 132B
My September/October sheets had difficulty for mid December at 98B

Looks like you were way off. Tongue

Thankfully, the difficulty hasn't moved much in the last few weeks.

My sheets have been almost dead on. I've only made very small changes since I made the tables this summer, my original start of december prediction was like 50b I think.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

And when I posted them people said I was way too optimistic. Ha!

Only 39.46B at current speeds...

Thurs, Dec, 2014 - 230am - Sydney Australian time.

Quote from: jdany on December 16, 2014, 11:31:07 AM

I was looking through my difficulty prediction spreadsheets.

My July/August sheets had difficulty for mid December at 132B
My September/October sheets had difficulty for mid December at 98B

Depends on how you modeled the difficulty increase. I've seen some people take last month's difficulty increase and project it out 12 months into the future by simply compounding the difficulty increase month-over-month. You'd pretty much get rubbish if you did that.

Quote from: Soros Shorts on December 17, 2014, 04:32:35 PM

Quote from: jdany on December 16, 2014, 11:31:07 AM

I was looking through my difficulty prediction spreadsheets.

My July/August sheets had difficulty for mid December at 132B
My September/October sheets had difficulty for mid December at 98B

yeah the op did that because he failed to project the end of the 2watt miner in JUNE and the start of the .8 watt miner in JULY would slow both diff growth and btc price.

the next question is will the better miners soon to come .3 .4 .5 watt models and the introduction of paycoin proves to be the 1- 2 punch that makes btc drop in growth and price.

Last two diff adjustments are a trend or does paycoin go bust and BTC stay king.

Diff back up to 40,640,955,016.5765 on the 2nd Jan 2015

Thursday 22nd Of Jan 2015 Australian Daylight Savings Time

Difficulty is : 43,971,662,056.0896

Network speed is : 367,196,153.9814

I'm going to start logging these every now & then to see the rise & fall as miners come on & offline with new or obsolete miners!

I know the thread says difficulty predictions but why not put in the actual as well so anyone in the past can make a prediction & see forward how close to the mark they were!

Stats provided by :

https://vircurex.com/welcome/index?referral_id=220-4724

Great idea!

Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,995,719,859 (-2.22%)
Adjust time:   After 760 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):   310,356,490 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Guys maybe it would be more efficient just to download daily hashrate data history anytime it's needed for example from here:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&scale=0&format=csv&address=

Quote from: lovenlifelarge on January 21, 2015, 02:24:20 PM

I'm going to start logging these every now & then to see the rise & fall as miners come on & offline with new or obsolete miners!

Quote from: stonerider on January 21, 2015, 07:30:27 PM

Great idea!

Be careful when going down this rabbit hole.

The changes you see in the network hashrate on a website aren't indicative of miners being added or removed from the network. Hashrate is calculated based on the time it takes to solve a block over a certain period of time. If I were to start up a 1GH/s miner and somehow manage to solve 6 blocks in 5 minutes, sites calculating hashrate on a block-by-block basis would think I controlled half the network (300PH/s out of the then assumed 600PH/s). This is why you see hashrate averages such as 504, 1008, and 2016 blocks on BitcoinWisdom, for example. The only real average that matters comes after calculating 2016 blocks, since that governs the difficulty.

I think this could be useful!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty