when will all btc be mined?

[BeetcoinScummer]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

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[LewiesMan]

Never, there will always be a little block reward available everytime a miner solves the block hash.

The vast majority of bitcoins (99%) will be mined in 2140 or so, we'll be all long gone

[finlon]

Never, there will always be a little block reward available everytime a miner solves the block hash.

The vast majority of bitcoins (99%) will be mined in 2140 or so, we'll be all long gone

I dont think it would be mined by then, even after all the estimates. A lot of miners would give up at low rewards .

[Totscha]

Never, there will always be a little block reward available everytime a miner solves the block hash.

The vast majority of bitcoins (99%) will be mined in 2140 or so, we'll be all long gone

I dont think it would be mined by then, even after all the estimates. A lot of miners would give up at low rewards .

Oh dear... Looks like many still don't understand the basics...

1. The vast majority (99%) will be mined in 2033 (give or take a year). About 100 years before 2140 https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
2. Around 2140 the block reward will indeed go to zero. The thing is that it would be less than 1 satoshi per block, so they rouned that to 0.
3. If there are more miners the difficulty goes up. Less miners, the difficulty goes down. This way the supply remains constant.
4. The transaction fees will replace the fixed block reward. Miners get that today, but it's less than 1% compared to the block reward. So it's not included in calculators... In theory with wider adoption there will be more transactions and more fees collected.

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
2. Around 2140 the block reward will indeed go to zero. The thing is that it would be less than 1 satoshi per block, so they rouned that to 0.
- snip -

More specifically, the last bit will be shifted out of the integer.

The current block height is divided by 210000 and the decimal portion of the result is thrown out.  The resulting integer is the number of "halvings" that have occurred.

The initial 50 BTC block subsidy is stored as an integer. A right bit shift operation is performed on the block subsidy value. The number of halvings indicates how many positions to the right the bits should be shifted.  Any bits that are shifted to the right of the least significant bit position cease to exist.  New zeros are shifted into the most significant bit position.  The resulting integer is the new block subsidy.  Once the value has been shifted 33 times, the last bit will be shifted out and integer value of the block subsidy will be zero.

Code:

Original block subsidy: 100101010000001011111001000000000 (5,000,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 0 places)
 Current block subsidy: 010010101000000101111100100000000 (2,500,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 1 place)
  After next "halving": 001001010100000010111110010000000 (1,250,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 2 places)

[Totscha]

- snip -
2. Around 2140 the block reward will indeed go to zero. The thing is that it would be less than 1 satoshi per block, so they rouned that to 0.
- snip -

More specifically, the last bit will be shifted out of the integer.

The current block height is divided by 210000 and the decimal portion of the result is thrown out.  The resulting integer is the number of "halvings" that have occurred.

The initial 50 BTC block subsidy is stored as an integer. A right bit shift operation is performed on the block subsidy value. The number of halvings indicates how many positions to the right the bits should be shifted.  Any bits that are shifted to the right of the least significant bit position cease to exist.  New zeros are shifted into the most significant bit position.  The resulting integer is the new block subsidy.  Once the value has been shifted 33 times, the last bit will be shifted out and integer value of the block subsidy will be zero.

Code:

Original block subsidy: 100101010000001011111001000000000 (5,000,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 0 places)
 Current block subsidy: 010010101000000101111100100000000 (2,500,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 1 place)
  After next "halving": 001001010100000010111110010000000 (1,250,000,000 satoshi, right shifted 2 places)

Never actually got into those details. Thanks for the lesson!

[romerun]

the gnome project is taking off, young pill is coming, we might live to see that day

[Soros Shorts]

the gnome project is taking off, young pill is coming, we might live to see that day

You don't even have to go that advanced. Even stem cell technology will soon allow people to grow replacement organs for many parts of the body, though I would imagine only rich people would be able to afford it.

[CrackedLogic]

supposedly around 2143.

[ebliever]

The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined. BTC are currently mined at 25 BTC every 10 minutes, the reward halving every 4 years (next in 2016). I believe this runs until ~2140 AD.

This is not true. The network difficulty is reset every 2016 blocks so that if the hashrate that was being used the previous 2016 blocks continues to be used (and the same level of luck is realized) then the next 2016 blocks will take exactly two weeks to be mined.

Every time the difficulty rises, it means that the previous 2016 blocks took less time then 'expected' to be found.

It is really not possible to know with any kind of certainty when the last block with a block subsidy will be mined as this is largely dependent on the difficulty between now and then

Given your statements all agree with and elucidate what I said, I don't understand what I wrote that is "not true" - can you clarify?

[mlferro]

I believe that we will not be alive to see it

[DannyHamilton]

The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined. BTC are currently mined at 25 BTC every 10 minutes, the reward halving every 4 years (next in 2016). I believe this runs until ~2140 AD.

This is not true. The network difficulty is reset every 2016 blocks so that if the hashrate that was being used the previous 2016 blocks continues to be used (and the same level of luck is realized) then the next 2016 blocks will take exactly two weeks to be mined.

Every time the difficulty rises, it means that the previous 2016 blocks took less time then 'expected' to be found.

It is really not possible to know with any kind of certainty when the last block with a block subsidy will be mined as this is largely dependent on the difficulty between now and then

Given your statements all agree with and elucidate what I said, I don't understand what I wrote that is "not true" - can you clarify?

The part that is not technically true is this:

The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined.

exton was pointing out that the difficulty is based on the average of the past 2016 blocks.  This means that, as long as the has rate is increasing, when the difficulty adjusts, it doesn't adjust enough for the current hash rate.  As such the blocks continue to occur faster than an average of every 10 minutes.  Furthermore, the difficulty adjustment doesn't attempt to predict how much more the hash rate will grow over the next 2016 blocks.  As such, the blocks start out faster than an average of one every 10 minutes immediately after the adjustment, and then continue to occur even faster yet until the next adjustment.

Of course, this all assumes that the global hash rate will increase continuously for the next 125 years.  It is far more likely that it will level off and perhaps even decrease at times (the most recent two difficult adjustments reduced the difficulty).  Since it is impossible to predict how much or how quickly the hash rate will increase or decrease in the future, it is impossible to say if it will take exactly 125 more years, slightly more than 125 more years, or slightly less than 125 more years.

If it took exactly 4 years between block halvings, then the previous one would have been in January of 2013, and the next one would be in January of 2017.

However, since the hash rate has been increasing and the block have been coming faster throughout the past, the previous halving occurred in November of 2012 (almost 2 months early) and the next halving is currently estimated to occur in July 2016 (almost 5 months early).  As such, it seems likely that the final block subsidy could occur as early as 2137 or as late as 2143.

[ebliever]

OK, I understand now. But I did say "(virtually)" in the first place to account for the fact that the block rewards are not coming at an invariant rate of 10 minutes, in agreement with those of you outlining the impact of hashrate changes. To me "2137-2143" is "virtually" the same as 2140 from our vantage point in 2014.

My reason for doing so is that many times here I've seen people shouting about mining/hashrates as if they think more mining has a strong impact on the rate of supply, and thus the supply/demand balance, leading to price changes. It does have an impact as you point out, but it's a very small one in the scheme of things.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

Let's keep things in perspective. In 10 years 95% of bitcoins will be mined. The rest will be spare change and less and less relevant to miners for the next 100 years.

Transaction fees will be the main incentive for miners.

Exactly. And this is the theory behind having the block subsidy decrease over time. The idea is that after a certain point, the total block reward will stay the same even when the block subsidy decreases

[fenican]

Imagine if you could go back to 2009 and tell people that the reward for solving a block, come 2014, would be about 8000 USD.

They would laugh at you.

Come 2050, same may be true. That last 10% may be worth warehouses full of fiat.

[allthingsluxury]

Let's keep things in perspective. In 10 years 95% of bitcoins will be mined. The rest will be spare change and less and less relevant to miners for the next 100 years.

Transaction fees will be the main incentive for miners.

Very true.

[annazzzy]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

If difficulty will be increasing so fast that can be before 2100 easy..

[seriouscoin]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

If difficulty will be increasing so fast that can be before 2100 easy..

just prove you're the dumbest in the room

[HeroCat]

I do not think that mining finish is near future. There are a lot of mining companies over there, and BTC future seems very good 

[Amph]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

yeah right now we are producing more than the normal amount of bitcoin that should be produced every day, based on 10 min block