when will all btc be mined?

[superSTAR777]

yes but not soon.... still many years !

[DannyHamilton]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

yeah right now we are producing more than the normal amount of bitcoin that should be produced every day, based on 10 min block

You are mistaken.

On December 2 , the difficulty was reduced because the previous 2016 blocks took longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

On December 17, the difficulty was reduced again, because the previous 2016 blocks took longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

As of now (block 334857), the average block time since the last difficult change is 11.12 minutes. which is longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

This means that ever since the difficulty change on November 18, we have been producing less than the normal amount of bitcoin that should be produced every day, based on 10 min block.

[superSTAR777]

My guess ... 2138, because the difficulty change slightly lags the hashrate increase.

yeah right now we are producing more than the normal amount of bitcoin that should be produced every day, based on 10 min block

You are mistaken.

On December 2 , the difficulty was reduced because the previous 2016 blocks took longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

On December 17, the difficulty was reduced again, because the previous 2016 blocks took longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

As of now (block 334857), the average block time since the last difficult change is 11.12 minutes. which is longer than an average of 10 minutes per block.

This means that ever since the difficulty change on November 18, we have been producing less than the normal amount of bitcoin that should be produced every day, based on 10 min block.

nice information

[Malin Keshar]

Around 2140, but the reward for mining will be negligible much sooner. I guess in some decades.

I think we will mine around 70% of BTC at most in 2016.

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
I think we will mine around 70% of BTC at most in 2016.

Your math is incorrect.

50% + 25% = 75%

Therefore, by the time we reach the end of 2016 more than 75% of the eventual bitcoin limit will have been mined.

[exoton]

The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined. BTC are currently mined at 25 BTC every 10 minutes, the reward halving every 4 years (next in 2016). I believe this runs until ~2140 AD.

This is not true. The network difficulty is reset every 2016 blocks so that if the hashrate that was being used the previous 2016 blocks continues to be used (and the same level of luck is realized) then the next 2016 blocks will take exactly two weeks to be mined.

Every time the difficulty rises, it means that the previous 2016 blocks took less time then 'expected' to be found.

It is really not possible to know with any kind of certainty when the last block with a block subsidy will be mined as this is largely dependent on the difficulty between now and then

Given your statements all agree with and elucidate what I said, I don't understand what I wrote that is "not true" - can you clarify?

With the exception of the last couple of difficulty changes, it has taken much less then two weeks on average to find 2016 blocks, the same is true for the majority of the time since the difficulty first increased in 2009. Every time the difficulty increased by 10%, it means that the previous 2016 blocks, on average were found every ~9 minutes. Since additional mining power has been added to the network at a somewhat even pace (excluding the last ~month) the average block time has stayed at ~8 minutes for most of the year, however if the difficulty had not changed then the block time would have further decreased as additional miners were added to the network

[BlackDynamite]

The estimate is 2140 based on the block reward halving frequency of four years.

Interesting info

[picolo]

- snip -
I think we will mine around 70% of BTC at most in 2016.

Your math is incorrect.

50% + 25% = 75%

Therefore, by the time we reach the end of 2016 more than 75% of the eventual bitcoin limit will have been mined.

It is why the 2140 year is not the reference to have, a more intersting reference would be the year when 90% of bitcoins have been mined or 95% or maybe 99%.

edit : created a similar thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=648560.0

[Farmer17]

- snip -
I think we will mine around 70% of BTC at most in 2016.

Your math is incorrect.

50% + 25% = 75%

Therefore, by the time we reach the end of 2016 more than 75% of the eventual bitcoin limit will have been mined.

It is why the 2140 year is not the reference to have, a more intersting reference would be the year when 90% of bitcoins have been mined or 95% or maybe 99%.

If we are going to have 210000 blocks every 4 years, the first 4 years give us 50%, 8 years 75%, 12 years 87.5%, 16 years 93.75%, 20 years 96.875%, 24 years 98.4375% and 28 years 99.21875%.