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Author Topic: Introducing: The Amazing Anonymous Bitcoin Lottery  (Read 21268 times)
FreeMoney
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August 27, 2010, 10:22:15 PM
 #101

I'm actually quite nervous about my code handling the real thing Smiley

I'm a veteran at these things, why does it still happen?

I'm looking at Bitcoin Watch data, is the winner 667?

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August 27, 2010, 10:42:36 PM
 #102

I'm actually quite nervous about my code handling the real thing Smiley

I'm a veteran at these things, why does it still happen?

I'm looking at Bitcoin Watch data, is the winner 667?

Indeed, and congrats to all the winners!!!

I got 3 x 3rd places, which means I lost a whole bunch of bitcoins, and yet I feel like a winner Smiley

So, 8 winners, a single 2nd place takes the large slice. What stats would you like to see appearing? I'll show you what you won on the finished draw details, and keep the ticket list for downloading indefinitely. Anything else? Any statistics? Just name it Wink

Now, payment, I'm going to bite the bullet and run the payment script, which will deposit the prizes in the taabl accounts. Next time it will send the prizes directly to the BTCOUT address, as part of my strategy of making this very anonymous (you don't need to log in and withdraw, thus leaving your IP address behind, just paranoia 101). Anyone objects this?

I'm hoping to get a lot of feedback, so bring it on!
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August 27, 2010, 10:49:44 PM
 #103

I'm actually quite nervous about my code handling the real thing Smiley

I'm a veteran at these things, why does it still happen?

I'm looking at Bitcoin Watch data, is the winner 667?

Indeed, and congrats to all the winners!!!

I got 3 x 3rd places, which means I lost a whole bunch of bitcoins, and yet I feel like a winner Smiley

So, 8 winners, a single 2nd place takes the large slice. What stats would you like to see appearing? I'll show you what you won on the finished draw details, and keep the ticket list for downloading indefinitely. Anything else? Any statistics? Just name it Wink

Now, payment, I'm going to bite the bullet and run the payment script, which will deposit the prizes in the taabl accounts. Next time it will send the prizes directly to the BTCOUT address, as part of my strategy of making this very anonymous (you don't need to log in and withdraw, thus leaving your IP address behind, just paranoia 101). Anyone objects this?

I'm hoping to get a lot of feedback, so bring it on!

Interesting to send automatically for security. Leaving them in probably increases play on the next game though.

Also it defeats the purpose of letting people change their BTCOUT. If my hard drive tanks while I'm out I don't want to come find that I won the lottery and the winnings are at my now unaccessible BTCOUT.

 

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August 27, 2010, 10:52:44 PM
 #104


Interesting to send automatically for security. Leaving them in probably increases play on the next game though.

Also it defeats the purpose of letting people change their BTCOUT. If my hard drive tanks while I'm out I don't want to come find that I won the lottery and the winnings are at my now unaccessible BTCOUT.
 

And that is why you have those backups... you do backup, right??? Wink
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August 27, 2010, 11:00:16 PM
 #105

Yeah, I backed up at one point....

80% of my coins are actually on sites I trust more than my computer atm....

Here's the thing though. My security scenario is going to be "Spending cash" on my main frequently used computer, with no backup because I don't want to do it 5 times a day. My "Savings" is on another computer which will be backed up after every transaction.

Oh, I could just use a BTCOUT from my savings computer. Eh, but I don't want to have to re-backup if I win like 11 coins.

Maybe make it an option?

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August 27, 2010, 11:03:51 PM
 #106

Yeah, I backed up at one point....

80% of my coins are actually on sites I trust more than my computer atm....

Here's the thing though. My security scenario is going to be "Spending cash" on my main frequently used computer, with no backup because I don't want to do it 5 times a day. My "Savings" is on another computer which will be backed up after every transaction.

Oh, I could just use a BTCOUT from my savings computer. Eh, but I don't want to have to re-backup if I win like 11 coins.

Maybe make it an option?

Ok, fair enough. Lets leave it manual for now, I'll add the option in the near future. So this means you get 0 warning that you won a prize, or that the draw has ended. Given the 'anonymous' thingy, I'm not asking for emails... I can implement ways of giving that information out, though, like RSS or IRC bot. But that's very low on my list for now, hit refresh often Smiley
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August 27, 2010, 11:10:24 PM
 #107

Yeah, I backed up at one point....

80% of my coins are actually on sites I trust more than my computer atm....

Here's the thing though. My security scenario is going to be "Spending cash" on my main frequently used computer, with no backup because I don't want to do it 5 times a day. My "Savings" is on another computer which will be backed up after every transaction.

Oh, I could just use a BTCOUT from my savings computer. Eh, but I don't want to have to re-backup if I win like 11 coins.

Maybe make it an option?

Ok, fair enough. Lets leave it manual for now, I'll add the option in the near future. So this means you get 0 warning that you won a prize, or that the draw has ended. Given the 'anonymous' thingy, I'm not asking for emails... I can implement ways of giving that information out, though, like RSS or IRC bot. But that's very low on my list for now, hit refresh often Smiley

I've been spamming refresh for days, but I guess some people have shit to do. ;-)

There was rollover for this one, right? I don't see it.

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August 27, 2010, 11:22:39 PM
 #108

Yeah, I backed up at one point....

80% of my coins are actually on sites I trust more than my computer atm....

Here's the thing though. My security scenario is going to be "Spending cash" on my main frequently used computer, with no backup because I don't want to do it 5 times a day. My "Savings" is on another computer which will be backed up after every transaction.

Oh, I could just use a BTCOUT from my savings computer. Eh, but I don't want to have to re-backup if I win like 11 coins.

Maybe make it an option?

Ok, fair enough. Lets leave it manual for now, I'll add the option in the near future. So this means you get 0 warning that you won a prize, or that the draw has ended. Given the 'anonymous' thingy, I'm not asking for emails... I can implement ways of giving that information out, though, like RSS or IRC bot. But that's very low on my list for now, hit refresh often Smiley

I've been spamming refresh for days, but I guess some people have shit to do. ;-)

There was rollover for this one, right? I don't see it.

No, rollover was removed as explained in a previous post. I will add to the next one what would rollover from this though... if you check http://taabl.datlatec.com/details?blocknr=76775 you'll see that the sum of 2nd + 3rd + bounty equals 330, all the bets.
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August 27, 2010, 11:25:42 PM
 #109

Oh, right, I see now. I thought we were switching for later, no problem.

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August 28, 2010, 10:47:35 AM
 #110

No rollover makes this lottery far less desirable to me.
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August 28, 2010, 11:58:22 AM
 #111

No rollover makes this lottery far less desirable to me.

I feel the same, really.

How about the rest of you, what do you think?
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August 28, 2010, 12:29:17 PM
 #112

No rollover makes this lottery far less desirable to me.

I feel the same, really.

How about the rest of you, what do you think?

I'm torn.

I like the rollover, but in order to make neutral EV bets you'd have to cover the whole field. I envision a few hundred bought, jackpot missed, someone(s) buy all tickets and monitor to remove dupes in order to pick up the free EV. I'm afraid it's going to go small, small, totally covered, small, small... instead of what I think you guys want which is a gradually growing pot. 

I think the big lotteries combat this by throwing in $1M or something, or keeping a reserve jackpot.

Maybe this:

8% of every ticket goes into the JACKPOT which accumulates when not won.
40% goes to match 3 if it happens, but gets distributed no matter what.
25% goes to match 2 if it happens, but gets distributed no matter what.
25% goes to match 1

Now no unique ticket will be worth less than .9BTC even when there is no money in JACKPOT, but we will still get growing pots.

I just think with the possibility of 50 or even 75% not getting paid, the tickets are a terrible deal when the pot is empty and it will be hard to bootstrap up again after each JACKPOT pays.

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August 28, 2010, 06:23:05 PM
 #113

Ok, this is becoming a little daunting for me Smiley

I know there will always be different opinions, and it's hard to find a solution that is agreeable to everyone, but I feel like the current plan simply sucks, so we need a better one.

The 2 problems we are facing are:
- Make sure people want to bet, even though there's no added pot
- If there is a jackpot, how to make sure the ones that bet *only* on the jackpot don't gain an unfair advantage over all others, whose bets make up the jackpot

The former was supposed to be solved by not having rollovers, but that didn't really work out. I think the only way to to solve this is to have rollovers, and probably to have an initial pot.
The latter is somewhat more complex, and the only way I see this going is for guaranteed jackpot games (the ones with no rollover) to have a longer bet string, thus making it hard to cover the whole bet range. This doesn't deter you from buying 4096 ticket spread such that you cover all 3 char possibilities, but because 1 hit prize percentage in the 5 hit draws is almost 4 times the 2 and 3 hits, the jackpot gets distributed in a way it doesn't really pay off doing so, while giving you every reason to at least buy 16 tickets Smiley

I think that will make the system run smoother, but on top of that I would do a side jackpot, taking some 20% of every rollover. Once the big jackpot is won, either by 3 hits or by guaranteed jackpot, the side jacpot is used to prime the next draw.

There are 2 things open, one is how to decide when to do guaranteed jackpot, my gut feeling is when the rollover is bigger than 4096, but we can also do time based, like when the block count crosses the 10k boundary (every 10 draws effectively).
The other thing is the fact that we are dealing with 20 people betting, and that number needs to at least be tenfold so to make this interesting, but once that happens, is the 4096 possibilities enough? I'm guessing yes, until we see one single better take more that 50% of the bet space, but that is something to worry further down the line.

This next draw, completing soon, will be just like the first one, but the next should have new rules set. I'm going to start it based on the same rule set, just because time is short, but I really think we need to do something in the lines of what I've described.
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August 28, 2010, 06:27:50 PM
 #114

Oh, and I forgot, the buying of all non duplicate tickets problem will be addressed by me removing the bet cancel, and only showing the bets after draw is locked. But when you buy random you are guaranteed to have unique bets at that point in time, at least until 95% of the bets are taken.
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August 28, 2010, 08:37:57 PM
 #115

Oh, and I forgot, the buying of all non duplicate tickets problem will be addressed by me removing the bet cancel, and only showing the bets after draw is locked. But when you buy random you are guaranteed to have unique bets at that point in time, at least until 95% of the bets are taken.

Eh, then the only way to be sure to get unique tickets is to wait until near the end and do random.

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August 28, 2010, 09:29:50 PM
 #116

Oh, and I forgot, the buying of all non duplicate tickets problem will be addressed by me removing the bet cancel, and only showing the bets after draw is locked. But when you buy random you are guaranteed to have unique bets at that point in time, at least until 95% of the bets are taken.

Eh, then the only way to be sure to get unique tickets is to wait until near the end and do random.

Right, if one is on this to try and make a buck, I guess one can do that. But I brought this on myself, by trying to build a community lottery, where there's no one owner that takes part of the cake for its own benefit. I try to disclose as much as possible because I like numbers and stats, but most of the issues would not appear if I had decided to hide the information from the start... I deserve this Smiley

But I guess that if everyone buys random (I'll probably change the interface to do one click ticket buying) then the bets are spread correctly. If you like one particular number, well, then you can buy it. If we were on the million possibility scenario, I could make it so you can't repeat bets, period. But 4096? I hope we'll see more bets than that soon, especially with jackpots.

However, I can easily make it so you can't repeat numbers, and add the possibility of setting the price on tickets, as was asked before. That way, if you like a number *and it wasn't taken yet* you can buy 100 BTCs of it Smiley

Hmmm, I like that, no repeating numbers could work. I'll try that in for the next one, maybe?
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August 28, 2010, 10:34:14 PM
 #117

Because there were no repeating numbers I decided to go ahead and make the unique bets on this one. I'll still keep the no rollover rule, but the next one will be different Smiley Now, because we'll have almost one full week up to the next one, I'll be happy to change that in the mean time if you convince me to do so.

Here's what I've changed:

- No more ticket cancelling (you can still cancel pending bets though)
- Bets are unique, no repeating, limit 4096 bets on the draw. Will add a fourth character to the bet if we exhaust this, and will also add the 'set your own price' on the tickets sometime in the future.
- You can see your earnings (if any) on the closed draw details page.
- Roll over of prizes is back... but am working on side pot and limit for 'guaranteed jackpot' draw.

If any of the betters of the current draw disagree... PM me your BTCIN and I'll cancel your tickets Smiley

PS: this current draw is not on automatic pay yet, as I've done extensive changes to that code. So, while your prizes will be advertised promptly after the result is known, the actual prize will only be distributed to the accounts after I double check the thing.
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August 29, 2010, 02:13:03 AM
 #118

Hey, I won the lottery!  Got 161.70 BTC from my 10 BTC in bets!  Minus my 10 BTC gratuity, of course.   Cheesy
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August 29, 2010, 04:12:10 AM
 #119

Hey, I won the lottery!  Got 161.70 BTC from my 10 BTC in bets!  Minus my 10 BTC gratuity, of course.   Cheesy

Quick buy some more, you are on a roll. The 77000 draw will be locked in 5 blocks.

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August 29, 2010, 11:00:59 AM
 #120

Hey, I won the lottery!  Got 161.70 BTC from my 10 BTC in bets!  Minus my 10 BTC gratuity, of course.   Cheesy

Quick buy some more, you are on a roll. The 77000 draw will be locked in 5 blocks.

Too late! Ok, it seems to have gone fine regardless of the fact that I was sleeping during result processing Smiley

10 3rd places, 3 winners, me being the big winner this time (I was the big looser last time, even though I won Smiley ). Got myself 7 x 3rd places, for a total of 82.32, which will go directly to the next draw. Everyone else, thanks for playing and for those who won, congrats!

Lets make the next one a big one, shall we? Wink
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