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Author Topic: ["WAIT LIST"] BFL SC Pre-Order Information (Monarch orders too!)  (Read 129760 times)
nederhoed
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August 30, 2012, 11:33:16 AM
 #241

Hi mc_lovin,

I bought two BitForce SC's in August:

08/06/2012, 4646, N, 0, 1, 0, -, -, nederhoed
08/26/2012, 6276, N, 0, 1, 0, -, -, nederhoed

Thanks for keeping this up to date! Cheers, Robert
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michaelmclees
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August 30, 2012, 06:00:36 PM
 #242

Date Paid: 29 August 2012
Order Number:  6637
Trade-In (Y/N): N
Qty SC Jalapeno: 2
Qty SC Single: -
Qty SC Mini Rig: -

Date Paid: 30 August 2012
Order Number:  6714
Trade-In (Y/N): N
Qty SC Jalapeno: 2
Qty SC Single: -
Qty SC Mini Rig: -
jojo69
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August 30, 2012, 07:10:09 PM
 #243

8/3/12  4028  N  0  1  0  -  -  jojo69

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
Wassupia
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August 30, 2012, 09:24:40 PM
 #244

I'm thinking about not paying my order (SC single) because of:

Help me out with the math please, I've been trying to find my error but I can't:

Current network total: 17.368 Thash/s

Total Orders (By Last Seen):   4493

That would mean there's at least a 15TH/s raise in total network hashing power?

If we would call the orders tracked in this topic representative for the population,
(I know they're not, but as raw estimate would be enough for me)
 
average hashingpower in GH /order * number of orders / 1000 to get an amount in TH

(161*3.5GH+194*40GH+22*1000GH)/159*4493/1000
=856 TH
That's more than 20 times the current hashrate?

Am I wrong?
Is there any one who can calculate the mining difficulty in relation to the network hashing power, with my or your estimate of hashing power in a few months?

My BTC-address: 1JtgnB6UC5j9gMYzLftVaCmwdPL4PrWeYB
crazyates
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August 30, 2012, 09:27:57 PM
 #245

Remember, while there are over 5,000 order numbers, not all of those have been paid and are going to be shipped units.

Tips? 1crazy8pMqgwJ7tX7ZPZmyPwFbc6xZKM9
Previous Trade History - Sale Thread
Michail1
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August 30, 2012, 09:50:35 PM
 #246

And order number didn't start at 1.

michaelmclees
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August 30, 2012, 09:57:40 PM
 #247

Also, don't be so certain that the order number increases by 1 each order.
SgtSpike
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August 30, 2012, 10:42:48 PM
 #248

I'm thinking about not paying my order (SC single) because of:

Help me out with the math please, I've been trying to find my error but I can't:

Current network total: 17.368 Thash/s

Total Orders (By Last Seen):   4493

That would mean there's at least a 15TH/s raise in total network hashing power?

If we would call the orders tracked in this topic representative for the population,
(I know they're not, but as raw estimate would be enough for me)
 
average hashingpower in GH /order * number of orders / 1000 to get an amount in TH

(161*3.5GH+194*40GH+22*1000GH)/159*4493/1000
=856 TH
That's more than 20 times the current hashrate?

Am I wrong?
Is there any one who can calculate the mining difficulty in relation to the network hashing power, with my or your estimate of hashing power in a few months?
I don't think it's a good idea to order any SC's right now... not with the number of orders waiting, huge potential for large hashrate increase, and potential of waiting for a year to receive your order.  With a price of $11.00 and the current difficulty/hashrate, an SC Single would pay itself off in about a week.  But, if we reach 500 TH/s (my estimate of where we'll end up with the current backlog of orders, as I am certain those who made large purchases won't be advertising them on the forum), and assume the same price, you're looking at 202 days to pay it off.  If we reach your estimate of 856 TH/s, 345 days.  And keep in mind, this whole time you are trying to pay it off, more people will keep on ordering them, increasing the difficulty (and your payback period) that much more.

With the volatility in Bitcoin price and uncertainty about the difficulty in the future, I wouldn't want to stake my payback on that long of a period.  I think I'd rather just invest in Bitcoins themselves at this point.
soniq
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August 31, 2012, 03:59:16 AM
 #249

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.

SgtSpike
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August 31, 2012, 05:07:11 AM
 #250

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.
Uh, no, not so much.  Not for these BFL units at least - they can only work the Bitcoin stream because the firmware is locked (or better said, it is undocumented how to develop firmware for it).
Garr255
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August 31, 2012, 08:31:13 AM
 #251

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.
Uh, no, not so much.  Not for these BFL units at least - they can only work the Bitcoin stream because the firmware is locked (or better said, it is undocumented how to develop firmware for it).

Well technically they could be used for other doubleSHA256 purposes, but I don't think there are any Tongue

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”  -- Mahatma Gandhi

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smartlight
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August 31, 2012, 10:46:07 AM
 #252

08/31/2012     6864     N     2     0     0     -     -     smartlight
nederhoed
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August 31, 2012, 12:07:46 PM
 #253

Hi mc_lovin,

And anoter one:

08/31/2012, 6872, N, 0, 1, 0, -, -, nederhoed

Cheers, Robert
gtrrkicw
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August 31, 2012, 02:35:32 PM
 #254

Just ordered my Jalapeno

8/31/12, 6883, N, 1, 0, 0, -, -, gtrrkicw

Did you find this helpful? 1PMwrmT32UGro7ufcQdsoWzZiQYq7L15sj
dyingdreams
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August 31, 2012, 09:30:37 PM
 #255

I ordered over a month ago but am just now out of the newbie section.

07/26/12, 3976, N, 1, 0, 0, dyingdreams

Michail1
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September 02, 2012, 05:22:48 PM
 #256

Total Orders (By Last Seen)   5217

Current last is 6296
Current first is 1656
So, at absolute most, there could only be 4640 suggested orders  (paid and not)

Also implies about 60 orders a day.  I wish my company did this well.

Has there been a good way to determine how many orders vs how many paid orders?

Guess....
4640 / 162 (line items listed) = 1 in 28 orders are paid (reported to thread)   is about 3.5% reported as paid.
(Obviously it is higher since not everyone is posting their paid orders to the thread)

In any case, it does give a real good idea of how much the company is taking in and how busy they might be.

20-6 = 14 minirigs being upgraded, but most are not from the original BFL thread.   
Maybe it's fair to say three times reported buys is closer to actual buy.   So, 1 in 9 are paid.
Approx 500 paid.   
6 SC (not upgraded) * 3 times reported * 30k = over half million $ for one sku.

Ideas? 

hashalfahalve
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September 05, 2012, 01:03:50 AM
 #257

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.

jojo69
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September 05, 2012, 03:44:43 AM
 #258

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.



what was your method of payment?

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
hashalfahalve
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September 05, 2012, 05:13:30 AM
 #259

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.



what was your method of payment?

Paypal
Michail1
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September 05, 2012, 07:06:31 AM
 #260

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.


You mean you paid 1 whole day ago? Heh.
Dude, you have to wait.  Takes time.

How long did it take just to get the order confirmation after you sbumitted?
Then, how long did it take to get payment request.

For me, it took well over a week each time for each part.

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