["WAIT LIST"] BFL SC Pre-Order Information (Monarch orders too!)

[jojo69]

8/3/12  4028  N  0  1  0  -  -  jojo69

[1715131448]

1715131448

[1715131448]

1715131448

[Wassupia]

I'm thinking about not paying my order (SC single) because of:

Help me out with the math please, I've been trying to find my error but I can't:

Current network total: 17.368 Thash/s

Total Orders (By Last Seen):   4493

That would mean there's at least a 15TH/s raise in total network hashing power?

If we would call the orders tracked in this topic representative for the population,
(I know they're not, but as raw estimate would be enough for me)
 
average hashingpower in GH /order * number of orders / 1000 to get an amount in TH

(161*3.5GH+194*40GH+22*1000GH)/159*4493/1000
=856 TH
That's more than 20 times the current hashrate?

Am I wrong?
Is there any one who can calculate the mining difficulty in relation to the network hashing power, with my or your estimate of hashing power in a few months?

[crazyates]

Remember, while there are over 5,000 order numbers, not all of those have been paid and are going to be shipped units.

[Michail1]

And order number didn't start at 1.

[michaelmclees]

Also, don't be so certain that the order number increases by 1 each order.

[SgtSpike]

I'm thinking about not paying my order (SC single) because of:

Help me out with the math please, I've been trying to find my error but I can't:

Current network total: 17.368 Thash/s

Total Orders (By Last Seen):   4493

That would mean there's at least a 15TH/s raise in total network hashing power?

If we would call the orders tracked in this topic representative for the population,
(I know they're not, but as raw estimate would be enough for me)
 
average hashingpower in GH /order * number of orders / 1000 to get an amount in TH

(161*3.5GH+194*40GH+22*1000GH)/159*4493/1000
=856 TH
That's more than 20 times the current hashrate?

Am I wrong?
Is there any one who can calculate the mining difficulty in relation to the network hashing power, with my or your estimate of hashing power in a few months?

I don't think it's a good idea to order any SC's right now... not with the number of orders waiting, huge potential for large hashrate increase, and potential of waiting for a year to receive your order.  With a price of $11.00 and the current difficulty/hashrate, an SC Single would pay itself off in about a week.  But, if we reach 500 TH/s (my estimate of where we'll end up with the current backlog of orders, as I am certain those who made large purchases won't be advertising them on the forum), and assume the same price, you're looking at 202 days to pay it off.  If we reach your estimate of 856 TH/s, 345 days.  And keep in mind, this whole time you are trying to pay it off, more people will keep on ordering them, increasing the difficulty (and your payback period) that much more.

With the volatility in Bitcoin price and uncertainty about the difficulty in the future, I wouldn't want to stake my payback on that long of a period.  I think I'd rather just invest in Bitcoins themselves at this point.

[soniq]

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.

[SgtSpike]

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.

Uh, no, not so much.  Not for these BFL units at least - they can only work the Bitcoin stream because the firmware is locked (or better said, it is undocumented how to develop firmware for it).

[Garr255]

assuming all these orders will be used for bitcoin mining as well. There are several other opportunities for hashing.

Uh, no, not so much.  Not for these BFL units at least - they can only work the Bitcoin stream because the firmware is locked (or better said, it is undocumented how to develop firmware for it).

Well technically they could be used for other doubleSHA256 purposes, but I don't think there are any

[smartlight]

08/31/2012     6864     N     2     0     0     -     -     smartlight

[nederhoed]

Hi mc_lovin,

And anoter one:

08/31/2012, 6872, N, 0, 1, 0, -, -, nederhoed

Cheers, Robert

[gtrrkicw]

Just ordered my Jalapeno

8/31/12, 6883, N, 1, 0, 0, -, -, gtrrkicw

[dyingdreams]

I ordered over a month ago but am just now out of the newbie section.

07/26/12, 3976, N, 1, 0, 0, dyingdreams

[Michail1]

Total Orders (By Last Seen)   5217

Current last is 6296
Current first is 1656
So, at absolute most, there could only be 4640 suggested orders  (paid and not)

Also implies about 60 orders a day.  I wish my company did this well.

Has there been a good way to determine how many orders vs how many paid orders?

Guess....
4640 / 162 (line items listed) = 1 in 28 orders are paid (reported to thread)   is about 3.5% reported as paid.
(Obviously it is higher since not everyone is posting their paid orders to the thread)

In any case, it does give a real good idea of how much the company is taking in and how busy they might be.

20-6 = 14 minirigs being upgraded, but most are not from the original BFL thread.   
Maybe it's fair to say three times reported buys is closer to actual buy.   So, 1 in 9 are paid.
Approx 500 paid.   
6 SC (not upgraded) * 3 times reported * 30k = over half million $ for one sku.

Ideas? 

[hashalfahalve]

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.

[jojo69]

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.

what was your method of payment?

[hashalfahalve]

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.

what was your method of payment?

Paypal

[Michail1]

I ordered and paid for 2 SCs on 9/3 and have yet to receive any sort of confirmation from BFL with an order number, that happen to anyone else? No response from support.

You mean you paid 1 whole day ago? Heh.
Dude, you have to wait.  Takes time.

How long did it take just to get the order confirmation after you sbumitted?
Then, how long did it take to get payment request.

For me, it took well over a week each time for each part.

[crazyates]

i am on the fence, i would order a jalepeno if i KNEW when i was going to get it.  I dont want to tie up funds right now with a "mystery box"  there is so many variables, but i have no doubts when these things start shipping the difficulty is going to skyrocket every week.  GPU mining will be eliminated in short order but you probably wont even notice that they quit. 

I think these devices will lower the entry for people to join in on the mining.  I expect difficulty will continue to rise until a single jalepeno only make about $10 a month. 

Ok. So do you want to get your Jalapeno sooner rather than later, before the reward half and the difficulty rise?

[squall1066]

i am on the fence, i would order a jalepeno if i KNEW when i was going to get it.  I dont want to tie up funds right now with a "mystery box"  there is so many variables, but i have no doubts when these things start shipping the difficulty is going to skyrocket every week.  GPU mining will be eliminated in short order but you probably wont even notice that they quit. 

I think these devices will lower the entry for people to join in on the mining.  I expect difficulty will continue to rise until a single jalepeno only make about $10 a month. 

Ok. So do you want to get your Jalapeno sooner rather than later, before the reward half and the difficulty rise?

Personally I beleive the two to be very close, Quote from BFL about release date. 

We plan on shipping the ASIC versions of our products by the end of October or early November, depending on quantity of units available. Please see the FAQ with regards to 1/3 shipping plan.

and the Estimated block reward dropping to 25BTC?  http://serason.com/projects/emccharts/countdown.php

Which puts it at early Dec, So the time from release to time to block drop is 1 month!
How many will actually receive their order in this time?

It's almost timed perfect, Almost like there was some thought behind all this...........