Good point to freak out would be ...

[Serge]

bitcoin has been pronounced dead so many times back in 2011 and yet we are all still here somehow..  why would it be different this time, Gustav?

[gustav]

bitcoin has been pronounced dead so many times back in 2011 and yet we are all still here somehow..  why would it be different this time, Gustav?

has been pronounced dead by whom? Not me in 2011 ... Who was the sender of the message? Sceptics.

Who  is  the sender this time of the message? People who have been actively using and trading it for more than 1 year, so not the sceptics this time.

Again: not saying it certainly does this or that but i see a problem with that line breaking and others will too and that's when it gets potentially hairy - once the super-longterm-trend is broken you are in mid air and have no idea if it's zero the next morning so i think it's more likely to actually go to zero once the line breaks.

Actually if we are below that line for 14days+ i'd be ready to make big bets on a total fail within this decade.

Actually below the line there is a lot of unease, panic, selling and more selling.
No way to get new investors in or a bullmarket going at that point.

Crypto is not backed by anything - this makes it possible to rise like crazy but also to go to nothing very fast because it's not tied to anything other than the liquidity in the markets. And the liquidity is what potentially goes away if the growthtrend is broken. Because why hold it if it doesn't grow and just becomes more risky?

Only a suicidal person would buy coins below the break of that line. Not catching a falling knife there, bro.  

It can break the line briefly - no problem but if this  shit breaks lower and stays lower i am out the door and others too.

[CoinCidental]

bitcoin has been pronounced dead so many times back in 2011 and yet we are all still here somehow..  why would it be different this time, Gustav?

has been pronounced dead by whom? Not me in 2011 ... Who was the sender of the message? Sceptics.

Who  is  the sender this time or the message? People who have been activel using and trading it for more than 1 year, so not the sceptics this time.

Again: not saying it certainly does this or that but i see a problem with that line breaking and others will too and that's when it gets potentially hairy - once the super-longterm-trend is broken you are in mid air and have no idea if it's zero the next morning so i think it's more likely to actually go to zero once the line breaks.

Actually if we are below that line for 14days+ i'd be ready to make big bets on a total fail within this decade.

Actually below the line there is a lot of unease, panic, selling and more selling.
No way to get new investors in or a bullmarket going at that point.

Crypto is not backed by anything - this makes it possible to rise like crazy but also to go to nothing very fast because it's not tied to anything other than the liquidity in the markets. And the liquidity is what potentially goes away if the growthtrend is broken. Because why hold it if it doesn't grow and just becomes more risky?

Only a suicidal person would buy coins below the break of that line. Not catching a falling knife there, bro.  

It can break the line briefly - no problem but if this  shit breaks lower and stays lower i am out the door and others too.

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out lol

[mmortal03]

more and more people keep finding out and learning about bitcoin, government officials in many countries noticing it.  it has many uses, much unrealized yet.  

what you say is crypotcurrency in general  - not exclusively bitcoin.

Crypto will not vanish, but bitcoin could; why not?

It's a good first try though and will be remembered in historybooks, that's for sure.

Not saying it fails, but saying: good trader has an eye on all possible scenarios and is prepared for big red aswell as big green candles right now.

I think it can become  very volatile again. Up or down both possible.

It's always possible, but we'd have to see a huge amount of hashing power redirected toward an alt.

[RyNinDaCleM]

It would be bad for sentiment and that's it. It's not so important to deem Bitcoin dead due to a break of it. I half expect it to get broken. A correction at this point in the cycle should reach the previous consolidation as a retest and trend lines are meant to be broken eventually. It will just make for a wider channel and define the boundaries for the next cycle.

yes, keep telling yourself that

I do! In the mirror... Every day
In the car, I have it on a CD so I can listen to it like an audio book

[gustav]

more and more people keep finding out and learning about bitcoin, government officials in many countries noticing it.  it has many uses, much unrealized yet.  

what you say is crypotcurrency in general  - not exclusively bitcoin.

Crypto will not vanish, but bitcoin could; why not?

It's a good first try though and will be remembered in historybooks, that's for sure.

Not saying it fails, but saying: good trader has an eye on all possible scenarios and is prepared for big red aswell as big green candles right now.

I think it can become  very volatile again. Up or down both possible.

It's always possible, but we'd have to see a huge amount of hashing power redirected toward an alt.

which would naturally happen once it is pumped.
Hash and price do have a corelation.

scenario:
bitcoin dumps to the abyss (for whatever reason), altcoin (s) are pumped, hash moves over.
Done in a few days to weeks.
Redirecting hash will not be a problem once bitcoin isn't profitable and something else is instead.

i have to say though i would prefer bitcoin to start a mayor bullrun right now. But if it doesn't i'll be prepared.

[Serge]

bitcoin has been pronounced dead so many times back in 2011 and yet we are all still here somehow..  why would it be different this time, Gustav?

has been pronounced dead by whom? Not me in 2011 ... Who was the sender of the message? Sceptics.

Who  is  the sender this time of the message? People who have been activel using and trading it for more than 1 year, so not the sceptics this time.

Again: not saying it certainly does this or that but i see a problem with that line breaking and others will too and that's when it gets potentially hairy - once the super-longterm-trend is broken you are in mid air and have no idea if it's zero the next morning so i think it's more likely to actually go to zero once the line breaks.

Actually if we are below that line for 14days+ i'd be ready to make big bets on a total fail within this decade.

Actually below the line there is a lot of unease, panic, selling and more selling.
No way to get new investors in or a bullmarket going at that point.

Crypto is not backed by anything - this makes it possible to rise like crazy but also to go to nothing very fast because it's not tied to anything other than the liquidity in the markets. And the liquidity is what potentially goes away if the growthtrend is broken. Because why hold it if it doesn't grow and just becomes more risky?

Only a suicidal person would buy coins below the break of that line. Not catching a falling knife there, bro.  

It can break the line briefly - no problem but if this  shit breaks lower and stays lower i am out the door and others too.

you're thinking only in terms of speculation, there are many supporters of Bitcoin, that why it has any value in the first place, because people realize how brilliant and independent this first of a kind digital exchange value system is.    in my opinion, zero is simply impossible, no broken trend line will make me think otherwise.  

all i'm seeing now are speculators taking advantage of down pressure caused by widening merchant adoption, nothing else. - and that's a good thing, bitcoin at bargain prices, thank you santa

[gustav]

sellpressure by merchants is a myth. I don't believe this story. Merchant use is very small compared to tradevolume.
I think the story is a try to explain this market but i think it's not the correct explanation. There is other more important factors than Microsoft selling 500$ worth of items every day for btc.

[Serge]

sellpressure by merchants is a myth. I don't believe this story. Merchant use is very small compared to tradevolume.
I think the story is a try to explain this market but i think it's not the correct explanation. There is other more important factors than Microsoft selling 500$ worth of items every day for btc.

so in your view, everyone realized how useless this bitcoin tech is and quietly dumping everything they have, i mean that's the only way we could actually reach a Zero?!  why now? why not earlier, why ever at all?!

[gustav]

sellpressure by merchants is a myth. I don't believe this story. Merchant use is very small compared to tradevolume.
I think the story is a try to explain this market but i think it's not the correct explanation. There is other more important factors than Microsoft selling 500$ worth of items every day for btc.

so in your view, everyone realized how useless this bitcoin tech is and quietly dumping everything they have, i mean that's the only way we could actually reach a Zero?!  why now? why not earlier, why ever at all?!

no, not everyone realises how useless it is (because it's not). But everyone realises pumping  against an inflationrate of 10% annually + Fatty selling your  coins back to you + mad asians shortsellers is bogus and that's why it doesn't happen, breaking the longterm trend and trigger serious doubts and maybe even big panicsells from bagholders.
If it breaks below and doesn't rebound you'll see a selloff and spikes after that will be used to sell more off - that's when the bearmarket never ends and hope dies. Going to zero and actually stay there will take a year or two but it can be at double digits in the blink of an eye if this line breaks. I wouldn't be surprised.

Alternatives will be booming. Everyone will come out of the woodwork and propose their solution to why bitcoin failed of course.

[CoinCidental]

Powerful people are trying to gain larger shares of something they see will be huge in the future of finance

Not really different to every other market, scaremongering is a popular tactic to make people sell but it will not affect everyone thankfully, just the daytraders making noise at this point and tbh they're just fighting over the crumbs compared to the real wealthy individuals  in btc

[gustav]

Powerful people are trying to gain larger shares of something they see will be huge in the future of finance

Not really different to every other market, scaremongering is a popular tactic to make people sell but it will not affect everyone thankfully, just the daytraders making noise at this point and tbh they're just fighting over the crumbs compared to the real wealthy individuals  in btc

the powerful manipulators who are actually not malicious but only very greedy would be the rescue but i think if they are the reason behind the long bearmarket they could be malicious aswell.
A reasonable non malicious investor would realize when he's endangering his own investement. An intelligent manipulator in it for profit will be starting the bullrun close to the trendline. If that doesn't happen the problem is confirmed.

[gustav]

i do hope for a doublebottom here
best case dip to 280-range again  and then MOON
This is the point of high risk and high reward.

If it breaks below the line i'd get out tbh if no serious new buypressure would be observed very quickly.


bottom line:


i'll leave you to discussing now. Need to go. Will check back here within some days.

[mindrust]

In other words,

Abandon ship!

Kidding kidding, op has a point tho. When ppl go panic btc will be buried to the magma. Why? Cause its not backed by anything, but ppl's trust.

I am going back to US Dollars. It is SAFE

[CoinCidental]

In other words,

Abandon ship!

Kidding kidding, op has a point tho. When ppl go panic btc will be buried to the magma. Why? Cause its not backed by anything, but ppl's trust.

BTC is a "trustless"  system
You don't need trust when you have mathematics
It will be used regardless in some areas whether it gets lethal approval or not in every country

[Serge]

one thing i learned about bitcoin, is not to underestimate it. expensive couple of lessons. as well as not to get one's hopes too high

nothing is confirmed until it actually happens. trend line is just that a trend line, they meant to be broken.

[MemoryShock]

It's a long term adoption. It's not going any where...

[botany]

USD 300 will be a scary level.
I bet a lot of stop losses will be triggered when Bitcoin drops to that level.

[mmortal03]

right here.
Panic is recommended once that line breaks for  longer than a few hours.  




If panic breaks out and Bitcoin would go to hell and not rebound very fast to new highs the fail would be confirmed and going to Zero would be inevitable in the long run.

I thought i leave a comment about it...

The price along that trend line is still below $300, so, we still have to break that psychological barrier before we can even get close to it. Full disclosure, I've been watching the same trend line for months.