Its always the darkest just before dawn

[exoton]

...
Bitcoin is also useful to me as a way to store value with no counterparty risk. I keep bitcoin stored in ways that will always be accessible only to me and those with whom I share it. I can access funds when I need to, and never have to worry about banking issues or capital controls...

Let's not gloss over the fact that your store of value has lost more than half of its value over the past year.  Such store.  Much value.  Wow.

I expect extreme volatility, and since first jumping into bitcoin in 2011, I said I'd give it *at least* ten years to develop before getting too demanding. So far fundamental development of the ecosystem (and price) have gone considerably better and faster than I expected. 3 years ago it was almost inconceivable that we'd have the current level of success by the end of 2014.

To your point about not glossing over returns, I find my current returns of ~2500% to be satisfactory. That said, I think it's foolish to look at any of this on timescales less than 10yrs or so. This is a long-term experiment.

My point is relatively straightforward:  Bitcoin is an interesting gamble (which, like you, I have taken & enjoyed in the past), but a "store of value"?  Would you call a craps game "a great store of value"?  No, not even if the dice aren't loaded. 
A good store of value does not appreciate tenfold one year and depreciate threefold the next. 
Making your claim that you need to worry less about Bitcoin than you do about banks sound a bit disingenuous.

Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

[1715295980]

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[1715295980]

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[NotLambchop]

...Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

Two unreasonable assumptions:
1. Bitcoin will succeed (many clonecoins have died)
2. Price will stabilize

[exoton]

...Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

Two unreasonable assumptions:
1. Bitcoin will succeed (many clonecoins have died)
2. Price will stabilize

My statement that the price will stabilize is based on the "assumption" that bitcoin will succeed (and is disclosed that this assumption is not necessarily going to be true)

[cbeast]

...Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

Two unreasonable assumptions:
1. Bitcoin will succeed (many clonecoins have died)
2. Price will stabilize

My statement that the price will stabilize is based on the "assumption" that bitcoin will succeed (and is disclosed that this assumption is not necessarily going to be true)

Indeed a reasonable assumption backed by the fact that attempts to undermine Bitcoin with clonecoins have thusly failed.

[csharp11]

...Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

Two unreasonable assumptions:
1. Bitcoin will succeed (many clonecoins have died)
2. Price will stabilize

1. Why? All you hypocrites spread this liberal socialist propaganda, about decentralization, and yet all of you are greedy. Everyone expects 1 billion percent increase in price so that they can become a millionaire without a drop of sweat. Well if bitcoin is driven by greed and insanity I don't think it will succeed.

2. I agree - price will stabilize. But I don't think it will increase. I think price needs to drop significantly, in order for the market to grow. Once it reaches 200 million people, even if price is at 25$ stable, there will be ways to buy bitcoin with a credit card and trade on the real forex market - not just market makers. Then an increase of 2$ in price would bring you 1000%. The difference - vast liquidity, making the market move up and down faster and with better predictability and stability. Right now the bullcrap behind it shows.

[dinofelis]

Well if bitcoin is driven by greed and insanity I don't think it will succeed.

I, on the other hand, think that that is the best guarantee for something to succeed !

It is the most powerfull drive on earth.

[csharp11]

Well if bitcoin is driven by greed and insanity I don't think it will succeed.

I, on the other hand, think that that is the best guarantee for something to succeed !

It is the most powerfull drive on earth.

Remember Nasdaq's Bernard Madoff? He conveyed a 30 year ponzi-scheme worth billions. He declared profits out of thin air. Profits that did not exist. And when people tried to cash them in - turned out their investments werent real and they had nothing.

What will happen if say BTC reaches 10 grand/btc? Everyone will start selling. However, at some point exchanges will stop, because supply will be astounding and there will be no more demand. So there goes open market for bitcoins.

Those price fluctuations are possible only because very few people have large amounts of bitcoin.

[inca]

Well if bitcoin is driven by greed and insanity I don't think it will succeed.

I, on the other hand, think that that is the best guarantee for something to succeed !

It is the most powerfull drive on earth.

Remember Nasdaq's Bernard Madoff? He conveyed a 30 year ponzi-scheme worth billions. He declared profits out of thin air. Profits that did not exist. And when people tried to cash them in - turned out their investments werent real and they had nothing.

What will happen if say BTC reaches 10 grand/btc? Everyone will start selling. However, at some point exchanges will stop, because supply will be astounding and there will be no more demand. So there goes open market for bitcoins.

Those price fluctuations are possible only because very few people have large amounts of bitcoin.

As the price rises coins are distributed. It has happened with each successive price surge.

The price does not jump from 300 to ten k. It moves there allowing people to sell along the way. Like a market.

The people who own the coins if it ever reaches ten k will not be the people owning them now!

[NotLambchop]

...
The people who own the coins if it ever reaches ten k will not be the people owning them now!

Of course not.  I sold most of mine on the way up to 1k last year.
There are no hodlers--only people claiming to hodl.

[csharp11]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

[cbeast]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

When Bitcoin gets to 10K you won't be able to buy Bitcoins unless you are a qualified investor with at least a one (or more) million net worth. You will be paid by your employer in Bitcoin for work or you can accept them for business, but brokering will be left to licensed individuals.

[jaredboice]

NotLambchop: "This user is currently ignored." 

[Tzupy]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

When Bitcoin gets to 10K you won't be able to buy Bitcoins unless you are a qualified investor with at least a one (or more) million net worth. You will be paid by your employer in Bitcoin for work or you can accept them for business, but brokering will be left to licensed individuals.

So... bitcoin will never reach 10k$, with such restrictive buying options. Bitcoin needs new bagholders to go up like crazy,
10k$ is a longshot but maybe 5k$ is plausible after the 2016 block reward halving. The bitcoin "elites' will dump their stash upon the new "believers".
The bagholders must be average Joes, no sensible businessman will buy close to the top of a bubble.

[fewcoins]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

When Bitcoin gets to 10K you won't be able to buy Bitcoins unless you are a qualified investor with at least a one (or more) million net worth. You will be paid by your employer in Bitcoin for work or you can accept them for business, but brokering will be left to licensed individuals.

So... bitcoin will never reach 10k$, with such restrictive buying options. Bitcoin needs new bagholders to go up like crazy,
10k$ is a longshot but maybe 5k$ is plausible after the 2016 block reward halving. The bitcoin "elites' will dump their stash upon the new "believers".
The bagholders must be average Joes, no sensible businessman will buy close to the top of a bubble.

Correct, that is why we are buying at the bottom of the bubble which is slightly above the 300 mark

[csharp11]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

When Bitcoin gets to 10K you won't be able to buy Bitcoins unless you are a qualified investor with at least a one (or more) million net worth. You will be paid by your employer in Bitcoin for work or you can accept them for business, but brokering will be left to licensed individuals.

So... bitcoin will never reach 10k$, with such restrictive buying options. Bitcoin needs new bagholders to go up like crazy,
10k$ is a longshot but maybe 5k$ is plausible after the 2016 block reward halving. The bitcoin "elites' will dump their stash upon the new "believers".
The bagholders must be average Joes, no sensible businessman will buy close to the top of a bubble.

Agreed. Although people like to overbuy non-markets (such as CFDs and cryptos) I also think that no one in their right mind would buy at the top and everyone would sell. That would be the problem. Theoretical huge profits, that cannot be withdrawn. And god knows how many exchanges will follow the path of MtGOX under the pressure of FED.

[gentlemand]

Agreed. Although people like to overbuy non-markets (such as CFDs and cryptos) I also think that no one in their right mind would buy at the top and everyone would sell. That would be the problem. Theoretical huge profits, that cannot be withdrawn. And god knows how many exchanges will follow the path of MtGOX under the pressure of FED.

There's no way BTC will ever approach 10k without exchanges that are audited and regulated up the arse.

I think it's gone as far as it can with the exchange infrastructure we have now. None of it's anywhere near solid or transparent enough to service millions of buyers and sellers.

[cbeast]

Difference is that with a price of 10k exchanges wouldn't be able to hold the BUY positions. Everyone will be bearish. And there won't be anyone buying at that price. And then what?

When Bitcoin gets to 10K you won't be able to buy Bitcoins unless you are a qualified investor with at least a one (or more) million net worth. You will be paid by your employer in Bitcoin for work or you can accept them for business, but brokering will be left to licensed individuals.

So... bitcoin will never reach 10k$, with such restrictive buying options. Bitcoin needs new bagholders to go up like crazy,
10k$ is a longshot but maybe 5k$ is plausible after the 2016 block reward halving. The bitcoin "elites' will dump their stash upon the new "believers".
The bagholders must be average Joes, no sensible businessman will buy close to the top of a bubble.

Shh. Don't tell Warren Buffett that.

[ndnh]

Well if bitcoin is driven by greed and insanity I don't think it will succeed.

I, on the other hand, think that that is the best guarantee for something to succeed !

It is the most powerfull drive on earth.

Add fear of not getting into it on time.

Yes, that makes Bitcoin powerful and attractive as an investment.

[fewcoins]

^ Fear of not getting in BTC on time + short sellers racing to cover their positions = $$$ for the longs 

[csharp11]

Agreed. Although people like to overbuy non-markets (such as CFDs and cryptos) I also think that no one in their right mind would buy at the top and everyone would sell. That would be the problem. Theoretical huge profits, that cannot be withdrawn. And god knows how many exchanges will follow the path of MtGOX under the pressure of FED.

There's no way BTC will ever approach 10k without exchanges that are audited and regulated up the arse.

I think it's gone as far as it can with the exchange infrastructure we have now. None of it's anywhere near solid or transparent enough to service millions of buyers and sellers.

Absolutely. My point exactly. Bitcoins themselves might be anonymous, but I don't think exchanges should be such. Exchanges must have some backup. Otherwise a 13yo scammer might create a web-based exchange with no cash and steal millions from dumbasses.