Bitcoin Low Market Cap compared to the Big Banks ...

[Levitron]

Bitcoins marketcap looks to be very low at 4 billion compared to the Banks and Visa markets which are around 200 billion, how long do you think  it will take bitcoin to reach somewhere or at least half way there?

I'd say at least 2 years for bitcoin to atleast hit a 25-70 billion market cap

[knight22]

Bitcoins marketcap looks to be very low at 4 billion compared to the Banks and Visa markets which are around 200 billion, how long do you think  it will take bitcoin to reach somewhere or at least half way there?

I'd say at least 2 years for bitcoin to atleast hit a 25-70 billion market cap

5 years would be more realistic IMO.

[hyphymikey]

I suspect if bitcoin's market gets that high it is because Big Banks market cap is falling. So for bitcoin to get half of big banks, with coin growing and banks declining? 3-4 years.

[botany]

My view is that we should be comparing Bitcoin's value to the money supply of a small nation, not to the market cap of any company (including banks).
Bitcoin's market capitalization could easily exceed those of banks once it becomes well established.

[fenican]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

[cyberpinoy]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

20 Billion in stocks, what about the 4 trillion big banks throw around in the foreign currency market. The Big banks profit 4 trillion a day in forex, so with that you know a minimum of 8 trillion is thrown around daily in the forex market buying and selling a variety of worldly currencies.

I think we need to stop comparing Bitocins to cash in all aspects, Bitcoin is NOT a currency, and when a lot of you realize this, you will be much better. It is called Digital currency because it is a way to transact cash digitally from one place to another, not because it was meant to replace cash. It was intended to compliment cash and save YOU money in the process. It provided a way for Huge corporations to save millions of dollars a year by transacting with bitcoins instead of cash.

[Jamie_Boulder]

Nobody can give you an accurate answer on that, you can guess all you want but the truth is there just isn't enough evidence yet.

[Q7]

Define the word "value". What does in mean to us? If you have 320 in fiat and 1 btc which converts to the equivalent amount, ask yourself which one do you think is worth more in term of purchasing power and in terms of actual value measured as hedge against inflation? Market cap is just a representation when you compared it back against fiat. So why bother to use that?

[TrailingComet]

I think a 50Bn market cap in 3 to 5 years is possible, assuming btc does not get disrupted

[Oscilson]

I think a 50Bn market cap in 3 to 5 years is possible, assuming btc does not get disrupted

As long as BTC is still there.

[exoton]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Right. The COIN EFT should certainly be overall positive for the price of bitcoin, although it will probably also somehwat centralize (more so) the holdings of bitcoin.

The market cap of bitcoin stands at ~$4.3 billion right now and the price of bitcoin has increased by as much as 100x per year in the past so in theory this could happen inside of one year, however when you are dealing with this large of amounts, this rapid of a price increase is somewhat unrealistic

[franky1]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

+1

the current crappy php based exchanges are playing around with crappy volumes, and in any half hour period its dozens to only a couple of hundred coins being traded.

i find it foolish to base the market cap value of 13.5million coins on the movements of these crappy exchanges. as they are not true value indicators of supply or demand. localbitcoins and OTC's are better indicators as EVERY transaction is a bank transfer to bitcoin trade, with no speculation or fake movements.
especially when you take into account the fact that trying to deposit more than $10k into the crappy exchanges causes delays, and an obscene amount of red tape, the large investors do not even bother using these crappy exchanges.

thus when the ETF starts up which has proper investors throwing proper bank funds at the ETF we will see a recovery of proper value discovery. so dont worry about low prices now if you are hoarding. instead if your a buyer, treat this as a way to abuse these crappy exchanges with low prices to grab a bargain, and if you want.. sell them for better value on localbitcoins/OTC for profit (rinse and repeating the process) to increase your hoards. as the ETF will cause significant price rises.

if you do not believe that ETF will do much. just think about the amount of bitcoins required for a "basket"(10k bitcoin) and then check out your favourite crappy PHP exchange and see how high the price will rise to be able to grab enough coins to fill one basket.

[LiteCoinGuy]

bitcoin is tiny compared to most things. even snapchat has a 20 billion valuation  (and thats just one company)

[tokeweed]

i honestly try not to think about it out of fear that reality might set in and i'd get disillusioned.

try to focus on the tech and how it could change the world for the better instead.  everything else will fall into place.

[franky1]

bitcoin is tiny compared to most things. even snapchat has a 20 billion valuation   (and thats just one company)

... yet facebook  wanted to buy snapchat for only $3billion. but putting that aside ...... bitcoin is not a company!

better off comparing bitcoin to a native currency
for instance 4billion cap is the equivalent to 11 countries combines GDP, which has a combined population of 1.7million people.

so bitcoin has a higher usage and value than 11 countries combined. which is not bad for just lines of code and being active for only 5 years.. especially without having to have any legal tender laws or bank enforcement to force people to use that currency.. i would categorize bitcoin as a success because its purely voluntary to want it, there is no government pressure forcing people to be paid for their labour in bitcoins.

list of countries based on world bank 2013 figures
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuvalu
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiribati
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Islands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palau
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/São_Tomé_and_Príncipe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_States_of_Micronesia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonga
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominica
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comoros
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samoa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Vincent_and_the_Grenadines

[1Referee]

Bitcoins marketcap looks to be very low at 4 billion compared to the Banks and Visa markets which are around 200 billion, how long do you think  it will take bitcoin to reach somewhere or at least half way there?

I'd say at least 2 years for bitcoin to atleast hit a 25-70 billion market cap

You can't compare market caps of established businesses with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is still in the very early stage, there is plenty room for growth.

Can you explain why you think Bitcoin market cap will soar from 4 billion now to max 70 billion in just 2 years?

[LiteCoinGuy]

bitcoin is tiny compared to most things. even snapchat has a 20 billion valuation   (and thats just one company)

... yet facebook  wanted to buy snapchat for only $3billion. but putting that aside ...... bitcoin is not a company!

better off comparing bitcoin to a native currency
for instance 4billion cap is the equivalent to 11 countries combines GDP, which has a combined population of 1.7million people.

so bitcoin has a higher usage and value than 11 countries combined. which is not bad for just lines of code and being active for only 5 years.. especially without having to have any legal tender laws or bank enforcement to force people to use that currency.. i would categorize bitcoin as a success because its purely voluntary to want it, there is no government pressure forcing people to be paid for their labour in bitcoins.

correct. and the beauty of BTC is, that  bitcoin can be so many things at the same time and has to many use cases. amazing tech: the internet of money. 

[merry0652]

A 70 billion market cap would give bitcoin a $5,000 price, would be a reasonable reach with the tech  and with how fast information is passed on the internet this could come sooner than expected

[Flashman]

 and with how fast information is passed on the internet this could come sooner than expected

It has been said there's 7 "internet years" in a solar year, and IMO the bitcoin world moves faster than that even, so I say 7 bitcoin years to an internet year = 49 to a solar year... don't like what's happening, meh, wait until next week it's a whole 'nother thing.

[exoton]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

+1

the current crappy php based exchanges are playing around with crappy volumes, and in any half hour period its dozens to only a couple of hundred coins being traded.

i find it foolish to base the market cap value of 13.5million coins on the movements of these crappy exchanges. as they are not true value indicators of supply or demand. localbitcoins and OTC's are better indicators as EVERY transaction is a bank transfer to bitcoin trade, with no speculation or fake movements.
especially when you take into account the fact that trying to deposit more than $10k into the crappy exchanges causes delays, and an obscene amount of red tape, the large investors do not even bother using these crappy exchanges.

thus when the ETF starts up which has proper investors throwing proper bank funds at the ETF we will see a recovery of proper value discovery. so dont worry about low prices now if you are hoarding. instead if your a buyer, treat this as a way to abuse these crappy exchanges with low prices to grab a bargain, and if you want.. sell them for better value on localbitcoins/OTC for profit (rinse and repeating the process) to increase your hoards. as the ETF will cause significant price rises.

if you do not believe that ETF will do much. just think about the amount of bitcoins required for a "basket"(10k bitcoin) and then check out your favourite crappy PHP exchange and see how high the price will rise to be able to grab enough coins to fill one basket.

Almost all OTC and all LBC trades are based off of the value of the pricing of a major exchange. The fact that a trade is above or below the price of an exchange is based on who has the advantage. There is much more trading volume on exchanges then either of the above options

[yrask]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

[Meuh6879]

5 years would be more realistic IMO.

Yep :

5 years to grow ...
5 years to known ...
5 years to use ...

and ... FIAT will be gone.

[LucidChaos]

Define the word "value". What does in mean to us? If you have 320 in fiat and 1 btc which converts to the equivalent amount, ask yourself which one do you think is worth more in term of purchasing power and in terms of actual value measured as hedge against inflation? Market cap is just a representation when you compared it back against fiat. So why bother to use that?

I agree with this. Once bitcoin reaches a certain point it will be almost irrelevant to assign it a fiat spot price.

Do we measure emails in terms of how many paper envelopes they can displace?

[franky1]

Define the word "value". What does in mean to us? If you have 320 in fiat and 1 btc which converts to the equivalent amount, ask yourself which one do you think is worth more in term of purchasing power and in terms of actual value measured as hedge against inflation? Market cap is just a representation when you compared it back against fiat. So why bother to use that?

I agree with this. Once bitcoin reaches a certain point it will be almost irrelevant to assign it a fiat spot price.

Do we measure emails in terms of how many paper envelopes they can displace?

we need to measure bitcoin based on a cost of living index.
something that can be measured universally and something that all people can easily imagine and calculate and understand how valuable/cheap/expensive it is.
for instance if we say bitcoin is 1 weeks cost of living.
EG 150 loaves of bread or 40 hours of minimum wage labour in whatever native fiat they please.

that way if the russian ruble collapses and next year it costs 10x as much for a loaf of bread. bitcoin is not measured at the ruble price.. but at a weeks cost of living. to ensure people always get paid enough to live on no matter how their native currency fluctuates.

[exoton]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

That might be a bit of a stretch. Just because wall street is involved in something does not mean it magically has massive amounts of value. Although additional money will likely pour into bitcoin, just not that much.

[merry0652]

I think most people in bitcoin don't realize what etf is or can do

[youngmike]

I think most people in bitcoin don't realize what etf is or can do

I think people who still own bitcoin can't realise it was one of worst performed investments in 2014 and is going slowly down 2015  

[bornil267645]

That's the point, people are expecting too much from a currency that is too small.

[botany]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

The wait for the Bitcoin ETF gets longer and longer. I do hope it provides some solid price support when it does enter the market. The volatility could also increase, as people withdrawing funds would result in rapid price drops.

[franky1]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

The wait for the Bitcoin ETF gets longer and longer. I do hope it provides some solid price support when it does enter the market. The volatility could also increase, as people withdrawing funds would result in rapid price drops.

ETF's HOARD coins.. thats the main premiss. its not like coinbase or bitstamp where people deposit coins and withdraw FIAT, but on a larger scale...
instead people buy baskets of coins off the existant markets and OTC's.. (10k coin baskets so imagine nice big price jumps per basket) they then put the into a trust fund. and then let other people play 'the markets' based on SHARES of the coins that are in trust.

so chances of a price drop are far far far far less then the price rise

[MarketNeutral]

It's difficult comparing Bitcoin to anything, especially banks. Is Bitcoin a currency? A commodity? A commodity with monetary properties? If so, then why compare a currency to a for-profit company, which is what a bank is? Yet they are in competition, so I can also see why one would compare them. A better comparison might be ceteris paribus over time and with regard to exchange rates, the delta of BTC's volume against the volume of SWIFT, Western Union, MoneyGram, and other global remittance systems. Yet one would still be comparing Bitcoin to a few specific mediums that use nation-state currencies, another difficult comparison considering the differences between Bitcoin and nation-state currencies.

[gargantuar]

It's difficult comparing Bitcoin to anything, especially banks. Is Bitcoin a currency? A commodity? A commodity with monetary properties? If so, then why compare a currency to a for-profit company, which is what a bank is? Yet they are in competition, so I can also see why one would compare them. A better comparison might be ceteris paribus over time and with regard to exchange rates, the delta of BTC's volume against the volume of SWIFT, Western Union, MoneyGram, and other global remittance systems. Yet one would still be comparing Bitcoin to a few specific mediums that use nation-state currencies, another difficult comparison considering the differences between Bitcoin and nation-state currencies.

smarty-pants here. Now i have some Latin to google. Love it!

[botany]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

The wait for the Bitcoin ETF gets longer and longer. I do hope it provides some solid price support when it does enter the market. The volatility could also increase, as people withdrawing funds would result in rapid price drops.

ETF's HOARD coins.. thats the main premiss. its not like coinbase or bitstamp where people deposit coins and withdraw FIAT, but on a larger scale...
instead people buy baskets of coins off the existant markets and OTC's.. (10k coin baskets so imagine nice big price jumps per basket) they then put the into a trust fund. and then let other people play 'the markets' based on SHARES of the coins that are in trust.

so chances of a price drop are far far far far less then the price rise

I agree that initially there will be a substantial price jump because of all the money flowing into the ETF.
But at some point, the fund must permit withdrawals, right? This could result in large price movements.....

[moriartybitcoin]

this is why the banks do not fear bitcoin .. YET

[Gianluca95]

Bitcoins marketcap looks to be very low at 4 billion compared to the Banks and Visa markets which are around 200 billion, how long do you think  it will take bitcoin to reach somewhere or at least half way there?

I'd say at least 2 years for bitcoin to atleast hit a 25-70 billion market cap

You have inserted an high stack (from 25 billion to 70 billion). More precisely I can say you that Bitcoin is not a bank, but a payment method like VISA, master card, paypal ecc. If you see bitcoin in this way, I can agree with you on thing that (hope that this will happen naturally) bitcon in future will process 70-100 billion of dollars transaction everyday.

[malaimult]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

The wait for the Bitcoin ETF gets longer and longer. I do hope it provides some solid price support when it does enter the market. The volatility could also increase, as people withdrawing funds would result in rapid price drops.

ETF's HOARD coins.. thats the main premiss. its not like coinbase or bitstamp where people deposit coins and withdraw FIAT, but on a larger scale...
instead people buy baskets of coins off the existant markets and OTC's.. (10k coin baskets so imagine nice big price jumps per basket) they then put the into a trust fund. and then let other people play 'the markets' based on SHARES of the coins that are in trust.

so chances of a price drop are far far far far less then the price rise

To be fair, people can (and probably will) sell bitcoin in 10k basket sized trades as well when the price of the ETF rises above the exchange rate.

All that the ETF will do is provide additional liquidity and make it more difficult to manipulate the price, although the net effect will likely be that the price increases

[botany]

The new Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer when it comes online - Wall Street can throw $20B around like it's nothing. Case in point - GoPro

Exactly. Wait the Bitcoin ETF of the Winklevoss Brother and you'll see (maybe) a market capitalization of bitcoin around 200 billion of dollars ! It's possible? I guess yes

The wait for the Bitcoin ETF gets longer and longer. I do hope it provides some solid price support when it does enter the market. The volatility could also increase, as people withdrawing funds would result in rapid price drops.

ETF's HOARD coins.. thats the main premiss. its not like coinbase or bitstamp where people deposit coins and withdraw FIAT, but on a larger scale...
instead people buy baskets of coins off the existant markets and OTC's.. (10k coin baskets so imagine nice big price jumps per basket) they then put the into a trust fund. and then let other people play 'the markets' based on SHARES of the coins that are in trust.

so chances of a price drop are far far far far less then the price rise

To be fair, people can (and probably will) sell bitcoin in 10k basket sized trades as well when the price of the ETF rises above the exchange rate.

All that the ETF will do is provide additional liquidity and make it more difficult to manipulate the price, although the net effect will likely be that the price increases

That is always welcome. If it becomes more difficult to manipulate the price, more investors will be attracted to bitcoin.