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Author Topic: How many bitcoins can be produced in a single day?  (Read 9748 times)
Paladin69
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June 25, 2012, 03:05:40 PM
 #1

I guess I don't understand the relationship between the rising difficulty, the 51% thing, and all this chatter about ASIC disrupting the market.

Is there a set limit on how many btc can be produced by the global community of miners in a single day?
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June 25, 2012, 03:06:43 PM
 #2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-OGsSb0BPU
Over 9000........IN THE FUTURE

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June 25, 2012, 03:10:24 PM
 #3

The Bitcoin network automatically adjusts the difficulty so that a new block is produced roughly every 10 minutes.

1440 minutes in a day / 10 minutes per block = 144 blocks per day
Every block currently creates 50 bitcoins, so 144 * 50 = 7200 BTC

It should be noted that this is an approximation and will differ depending on luck.

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June 25, 2012, 03:17:25 PM
 #4

the system is designed so that on average a block is solved every 10minutes
difficulty is what regulates this and is adjusted very 2016blocks - roughly a fortnight

24hours x 6blocks x 50BTC = 7200BTC/day on average

if/when asics arrive and block solving skyrockets the 2016 blocks will be found much quicker than a fortnight and difficulty will increase (and the time to block reward halving will come forward).
In this window of rapidly rising difficulty early adopters of asic will do very well.

If 1Thash asics are released. well today the network is ~ 12.5Thash, it would take 7 1Thash asics to have over 51% of the network hashpower, not really a huge cost to disrupt the bitcoin network if one really wanted to.

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June 25, 2012, 03:27:48 PM
 #5

the system is designed so that on average a block is solved every 10minutes
difficulty is what regulates this and is adjusted very 2016blocks - roughly a fortnight

24hours x 6blocks x 50BTC = 7200BTC/day on average

if/when asics arrive and block solving skyrockets the 2016 blocks will be found much quicker than a fortnight and difficulty will increase (and the time to block reward halving will come forward).
In this window of rapidly rising difficulty early adopters of asic will do very well.

If 1Thash asics are released. well today the network is ~ 12.5Thash, it would take 7 1Thash asics to have over 51% of the network hashpower, not really a huge cost to disrupt the bitcoin network if one really wanted to.

It would take more than 7TH/s to have 51% of the network, unless existing miners drop out.

@OP: You could have much more than 7200 BTC in a day if you had a large increase in hashing power. Say BFL gets their initial batch of ASIC rigs together and decides to do some live testing. If they had 45TH/s of hashing power, you would expect that 576 blocks would be found that day instead of 144, so 28800 with 21600 going to BFL.
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June 25, 2012, 04:21:20 PM
 #6

the system is designed so that on average a block is solved every 10minutes
difficulty is what regulates this and is adjusted very 2016blocks - roughly a fortnight

24hours x 6blocks x 50BTC = 7200BTC/day on average

if/when asics arrive and block solving skyrockets the 2016 blocks will be found much quicker than a fortnight and difficulty will increase (and the time to block reward halving will come forward).
In this window of rapidly rising difficulty early adopters of asic will do very well.

If 1Thash asics are released. well today the network is ~ 12.5Thash, it would take 7 1Thash asics to have over 51% of the network hashpower, not really a huge cost to disrupt the bitcoin network if one really wanted to.

It would take more than 7TH/s to have 51% of the network, unless existing miners drop out.


currently the network is under 13Thash , 7Thash is >51% (7Thash is 50% of 14Thash) as the network stands today. I imagine it will be more by october/december/whenever /ifever asics are delivered...

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June 25, 2012, 04:27:11 PM
 #7

Graet, your math is retarded. If you add 7 more Thash to 13Thash, then you have 20 Thash total of network hashing power. 7 is not 51% of 20. What Mr. Teal is saying is correct. Current miners would have to drop out while the 7 Thash are added in order for the ASIC's to be 50% of the network hashing power (If there are 13Thash now, then 7Thash would have to stop mining as 7Thash of ASIC's commence mining).
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June 25, 2012, 04:28:19 PM
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currently the network is under 13Thash , 7Thash is >51% (7Thash is 50% of 14Thash) as the network stands today. I imagine it will be more by october/december/whenever /ifever asics are delivered...
Once the attacker starts mining on the main network, the total will be 20 Thps, and their 7 just won't cut it anymore.

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June 25, 2012, 04:34:29 PM
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currently the network is under 13Thash , 7Thash is >51% (7Thash is 50% of 14Thash) as the network stands today. I imagine it will be more by october/december/whenever /ifever asics are delivered...
Once the attacker starts mining on the main network, the total will be 20 Thps, and their 7 just won't cut it anymore.

Aye, an attacker will have to add atleast as much as the existing hash rate +1% of that total in order to achieve 51%


And just wtf does anyone think someone could actually accomplish with 51% besides a bit of harrassment with orphaned blocks from some of the other miners? A double spend? Really, what is the likelihood of 2 merchants having anything large enough to offer that it would be worthwhile to spend twice at the same time. And then what are the odds they will ship anything before they noticed the transaction disappeared?

Maybe I forgot some other nasty side affect to a short-term 51%. I assume a long term one would cause the need for a fork in order to get legit transactions reporting again. shrug.

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June 25, 2012, 04:36:05 PM
 #10

If some magical device came along that could do petahashes per second, keep in mind the following information: Blocks can be created as fast as your hardware will go, you could create 100 of them within 10 seconds if your hardware was that fast.

However, there are 2016 blocks per retarget interval, so the maximum number of blocks that could be created before the difficulty was adjusted would be 2016. Currently, that is BTC100,800.00 plus fees, at BTC50 per block. If you created all 2016 blocks within 1 day, the difficulty would jump in order to fix the generation speed.

But there is another factor to contend with: The difficulty cannot rise more than four times the current value per retarget interval - so the current value is 1726566.5591935 and four times that would be 6906266.236774. It would continue to rise in 4x jumps until the block creation rate was 2016 blocks per 2 weeks, as it should be.

Just for laughs, I'll use my 2016 blocks per day example for some calculations. 2016 blocks per day is 14 times as fast as the network wants to go, so at the end of day one the diff would rise at the max rate of 4x. Now that 2016 blocks takes 4x as long to create, it will be 4 days before the next retarget interval. 4 days is still 3.5x as fast as the network wants to go, so at the end of 4 more days the diff will rise again, but this time by 3.5x. Now, the diff is 14 times higher than it was 5 days ago, and the block creation time is now back on track to where it should be. Therefore, in 5 days of mining, the network has adjusted the difficulty to neutralize this hashing monster, and keep the block flowing at a steady pace.

The trick now is what happens when he stops mining. At that point, the network is 14x higher than it should be, so it could take a while to get back to normal....

P.S. If I have made any blatant mathematical errors, I'm sure the smarter folks here will helpfully point them out. Please and thank you Wink

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June 25, 2012, 04:52:09 PM
 #11

And just wtf does anyone think someone could actually accomplish with 51% besides a bit of harrassment with orphaned blocks from some of the other miners? A double spend? Really, what is the likelihood of 2 merchants having anything large enough to offer that it would be worthwhile to spend twice at the same time. And then what are the odds they will ship anything before they noticed the transaction disappeared?

Maybe I forgot some other nasty side affect to a short-term 51%. I assume a long term one would cause the need for a fork in order to get legit transactions reporting again. shrug.
Double-spending isn't spending to 2 merchants. It's spending to a merchant and yourself, or sending to an eWallet and yourself (e.g., send to an eWallet, wait until it is confirmed, withdraw and get some other coins, reverse the original transaction).

Or he can prevent any transaction from confirming.

>50% at the hands of a malicious entity really is pretty bad.

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June 25, 2012, 05:03:03 PM
 #12

The correct answer is: however many the developers code into the client. This can be changed, but right now we have no reason to believe it will.

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June 25, 2012, 05:16:25 PM
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The correct answer is: however many the developers code into the client. This can be changed, but right now we have no reason to believe it will.
The question was about how many bitcoins can be produced. If someone (be it Gavin or anyone else) releases a piece of software that generates more than 50/block + retarget for 2016=14 days, whatever it generates isn't Bitcoin.

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June 25, 2012, 05:22:10 PM
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And just wtf does anyone think someone could actually accomplish with 51% besides a bit of harrassment with orphaned blocks from some of the other miners? A double spend? Really, what is the likelihood of 2 merchants having anything large enough to offer that it would be worthwhile to spend twice at the same time. And then what are the odds they will ship anything before they noticed the transaction disappeared?

Maybe I forgot some other nasty side affect to a short-term 51%. I assume a long term one would cause the need for a fork in order to get legit transactions reporting again. shrug.
Double-spending isn't spending to 2 merchants. It's spending to a merchant and yourself, or sending to an eWallet and yourself (e.g., send to an eWallet, wait until it is confirmed, withdraw and get some other coins, reverse the original transaction).

Or he can prevent any transaction from confirming.

>50% at the hands of a malicious entity really is pretty bad.

Thanks for that. It's been a while since I read any serious discussions on the topic. I would be fairly concerned about the transactions not confirming. This it would seem could be more devistating to the BTC economy than the potential to 'spoof' BTCs(sorry for the bad terminology. I'm still having a hard time grasping just how double spend would benefit the perp in the end)

edit; sorry for sidetracking the OP a bit. As RJk and others have pointed out the difficulty adjestment would correct the increased generation on its own.

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June 25, 2012, 05:22:18 PM
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The correct answer is: however many the developers code into the client. This can be changed, but right now we have no reason to believe it will.
The question was about how many bitcoins can be produced. If someone (be it Gavin or anyone else) releases a piece of software that generates more than 50/block + retarget for 2016=14 days, whatever it generates isn't Bitcoin.
Yes. They would be mining on a worthless chain.

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June 25, 2012, 05:23:22 PM
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I'm still having a hard time grasping just how double spend would benefit the perp in the end
Think chargebacks... for Bitcoin.

* mcorlett weeps

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June 25, 2012, 05:24:23 PM
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I'm still having a hard time grasping just how double spend would benefit the perp in the end
Think chargebacks... for Bitcoin.

* mcorlett weeps
aye, I get the concept. But wouldn't they need to receive something in return from the soon to be charge backed transaction to benefit from it?

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June 25, 2012, 05:29:25 PM
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I'm still having a hard time grasping just how double spend would benefit the perp in the end
Think chargebacks... for Bitcoin.

* mcorlett weeps
aye, I get the concept. But wouldn't they need to receive something in return from the soon to be charge backed transaction to benefit from it?
They wait with the "chargeback" until the merchant is satisfied with the amount of confirmations and gives them the product or service, at which point the attacker "charges back" the transaction and gets to keep both. There is no limit as to the amount of merchants they can screw over, so the potential for damage is huge.

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June 25, 2012, 05:36:31 PM
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I'm still having a hard time grasping just how double spend would benefit the perp in the end
Think chargebacks... for Bitcoin.

* mcorlett weeps
aye, I get the concept. But wouldn't they need to receive something in return from the soon to be charge backed transaction to benefit from it?
They wait with the "chargeback" until the merchant is satisfied with the amount of confirmations and gives them the product or service, at which point the attacker "charges back" the transaction and gets to keep both. There is no limit as to the amount of merchants they can screw over, so the potential for damage is huge.

Aye, so pretty much like I'm imagining then. Sooo, how many merchants are able to deliver a product before the blocks resume and the chargeback happens. I mean if the 51% is sustained long enough to be noticed by devs would we not be able to fork from it?

edit; don't get me wrong, I see the potential for this to happen with the 51%. It seems seems they would need too many others things to fall perfectly into place for it to work.

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June 25, 2012, 05:38:47 PM
 #20

Remember that even with 51%, no attacker can spend your or others' coins. They can only spend their own, prevent your transactions from occurring, and roll back your and others' transactions at will. That last part becomes more and more difficult with the passing of time, and depending on how much hash power the attacker has.

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