Re: Odds on dice

[Spodermen]

it's always 49% (1% house edge) on a 2x multiplier.

[KingOfSports]

Well, this is the first time out of all of my gambling experience I've ever come across this:



Two things.... 4 rolls under 10 and 3 rolls under 1.5?!

Can someone tell me what the odd of this is. Seems highly unlikely that something like this can occur considering i've made 160 bets on the site, and only 10 rolls on that seed.

another quick question... If I change my seed, would my nonce be changed or reset?

1 / (.397*.397*.397*.263*.263) = 231.055 (multiplying the odds of losing each bet)

If you make 5 rolls, 1 in 231 series of 5 rolls will lose all five rolls of the sequence pictured above.

or 0.43%. Not statistically impossible by any means, you just got unlucky.

[Farmer17]

Well, this is the first time out of all of my gambling experience I've ever come across this:



Two things.... 4 rolls under 10 and 3 rolls under 1.5?!

Can someone tell me what the odd of this is. Seems highly unlikely that something like this can occur considering i've made 160 bets on the site, and only 10 rolls on that seed.

another quick question... If I change my seed, would my nonce be changed or reset?

1 / (.397*.397*.397*.263*.263) = 231.055

If you make 5 rolls, 1 in 231 series of 5 rolls will lose all five rolls of the sequence pictured.

or 0.43%. Not statisically impossible by any means, you just got unlucky.

And if you keep making a lot of rolls, these kind of "unlikely" streaks will come sooner or later.

[Farmer17]

Not the odds of me losing the payout I was on, but rather hitting under 1.51 3 times in a row

1.51% * 1.51% * 1.51% = 0.000344%.
But I have seen a 20 losses in a row with x2 bets, which has a much lower chance to occur.

[KingOfSports]

In that case...

1/(0.0151*0.0151*0.0151) = 290448.513499
One in 290,448.51 series of 3 rolls will roll less then 1.51 out of 100.

Very unlikely but not impossible.

[KingOfSports]

Not the odds of me losing the payout I was on, but rather hitting under 1.51 3 times in a row

1.51% * 1.51% * 1.51% = 0.000344%.
But I have seen a 20 losses in a row with x2 bets, which has a much lower chance to occur.

No, it's 1 / (1.51% * .55% * .88%)  = 0.0000717522% , a one in 14000 occurance (or something around that)

What? Where do you get those numbers from? If you're asking what the chance of rolling 3 times under 1.51 out of 100.00, the correct formula is in my post above.

[michaeladair]

Not the odds of me losing the payout I was on, but rather hitting under 1.51 3 times in a row

1.51% * 1.51% * 1.51% = 0.000344%.
But I have seen a 20 losses in a row with x2 bets, which has a much lower chance to occur.

The highest I've seen 2x bets is 23, using my peerbet.org dicebot... It logs winning and loosing streaks.

[moreia]

Seems a bit unfair if you ask me... Curious as to if your nonce was supposed to be changed or not. Was it changed when you changed your seed/if you have changed your seed when playing?

[sherbyspark]

Not the odds of me losing the payout I was on, but rather hitting under 1.51 3 times in a row

1.51% * 1.51% * 1.51% = 0.000344%.
But I have seen a 20 losses in a row with x2 bets, which has a much lower chance to occur.

The highest I've seen 2x bets is 23, using my peerbet.org dicebot... It logs winning and loosing streaks.

Thet highest at x2 happened on primedice I think, went to 32.
Not seen it though. Personally, I don't use martingale or 2x much, and the worst I have had is 18.

[NeuroticFish]

Not the odds of me losing the payout I was on, but rather hitting under 1.51 3 times in a row

1.51% * 1.51% * 1.51% = 0.000344%.
But I have seen a 20 losses in a row with x2 bets, which has a much lower chance to occur.

The highest I've seen 2x bets is 23, using my peerbet.org dicebot... It logs winning and loosing streaks.

Thet highest at x2 happened on primedice I think, went to 32.
Not seen it though. Personally, I don't use martingale or 2x much, and the worst I have had is 18.

Yep, long losing streaks are usual for me too on primedice.
But on safedice I also had 9 loses in a row. So .. yeah.. not very probable doesn't make it impossible...

[Minnlo]

Unanswered: another quick question... If I change my seed, would my nonce be changed or reset or remain the same?

From my own testing, changing your account seed on Safedice won't affect your nonce or your server seed at all.

[ndnh]

For the record, a .0000717% occurrence (for anyone who is miscalculating)

Well, this is the first time out of all of my gambling experience I've ever come across this:



Two things.... 4 rolls under 10 and 3 rolls under 1.5?!

EDIT - From my calculations, in 160 bets I hit 1/14000 odds (lucky or what). Seems highly unlikely that something like this can occur considering i've made 160 bets on the site, and only 10 rolls on that seed.

Nothing is impossible. You just got unlucky.

See: http://search.dilbert.com/comic/Random%20Nine 

[joksim299]

You've just got unlucky everything can happen at random.
You would get very lucky if you selected to bet under 10 

[sherbyspark]

You've just got unlucky everything can happen at random.
You would get very lucky if you selected to bet under 10 

Even un der 5 would give you 3 losses, which is less probably but not impossible.
You can also run simulations of dice and see it is very possible.

[Frank.SD]

For the record, a .0000717% occurrence (for anyone who is miscalculating)

Well, this is the first time out of all of my gambling experience I've ever come across this:



Two things.... 4 rolls under 10 and 3 rolls under 1.5?!

EDIT - From my calculations, in 160 bets I hit 1/14000 odds (lucky or what). Seems highly unlikely that something like this can occur considering i've made 160 bets on the site, and only 10 rolls on that seed.

Unanswered: another quick question... If I change my seed, would my nonce be changed or reset or remain the same?

Hi Spodermen,

On safedice, nonce is the number of rolls you have made using the server seed, so it will be reset if you change the server seed. If you only change the client seed, the nounce will be unchanged.

Hope you enjoying your play here.

Frank from Safedice.com

[sherbyspark]

nonce usually resets to 0 on some sites after you change the seed. Some sites dont change the nonce and continue.
Not sure if users can reset it manually.

[Frank.SD]

nonce usually resets to 0 on some sites after you change the seed. Some sites dont change the nonce and continue.
Not sure if users can reset it manually.

On SafeDice, ssers can reset both the server and client seeds manually, or just one of them.

[sherbyspark]

nonce usually resets to 0 on some sites after you change the seed. Some sites dont change the nonce and continue.
Not sure if users can reset it manually.

On SafeDice, ssers can reset both the server and client seeds manually, or just one of them.

Nice, guess that makes it convenient for the players. Thanks for answering.

[unamis76]

So, after all, there are people as unlucky as me, lol

[jjc326]

There's not nothing of strange in this row! 3 rolls under 1.51 it's possible, 4 rolls too!
Martingale strategy is the best way to lose money!