Bitcoin to -$600 in 4 months

[Elwar]

According to this website an estimate of people that own bitcoin is: 500,000
https://bitscan.com/bitnews/item/how-many-people-really-own-bitcoins-and-why-does-it-matter
According to this website, average monthly spending is: $4250
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm

That is 500,000 bitcoin owners spending $4250 per month. That is $2.125 billion per month of costs.

Current bitcoins are about 13,600,000 at a price around $325/BTC.

So that is $4.42 billion worth of bitcoins.

If we are to believe the argument that miners must sell $1 million worth of bitcoins per day to pay for their electricity, then just as legitimate of an argument is that people that have bitcoins must sell $2.125 billion worth of bitcoins per month to pay for their monthly costs.

This means that within 2 months the bitcoin price will be zero. A month after that the bitcoin price will be -$150, 3 months after that... -$600.

So...can we put to rest this fallacy that miners are selling bitcoins to pay for their monthly expenses yet? Or do we wait 2 months to see if Bitcoin is $0/BTC?

[Odalv]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

[cbeast]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

[Elwar]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

So we should be at negative $1000 at least by now with so many monthly costs.

[unent]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

[cbeast]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

mumble... mumble... Zeno's Paradox... mumble... ahem, right, zero is asymptotic.

[unent]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

mumble... mumble... Zeno's Paradox... mumble... ahem, right, zero is asymptotic.

It was below $10 a share (whatever a bitcorn share is).

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.  Miners/speculators will be best served to acknowledge the meltdown has begun, act quickly and take fleeting profit off the table.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12#ixzz3MXaZbtaP

[jjacob]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

mumble... mumble... Zeno's Paradox... mumble... ahem, right, zero is asymptotic.

It was below $10 a share (whatever a bitcorn share is).

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.  Miners/speculators will be best served to acknowledge the meltdown has begun, act quickly and take fleeting profit off the table.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12#ixzz3MXaZbtaP

This has been discredited quite some time ago.
He still doesn't agree that he was wrong, though,

[zyzzbrah]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

mumble... mumble... Zeno's Paradox... mumble... ahem, right, zero is asymptotic.

It was below $10 a share (whatever a bitcorn share is).

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.  Miners/speculators will be best served to acknowledge the meltdown has begun, act quickly and take fleeting profit off the table.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12#ixzz3MXaZbtaP

Anyone that thinks potential buyers will risk as much as letting BTC go 10 dollar to get in is insane and delusional. Im going all in at sub 100, let alone 10.

[magicmexican]

Well it will certanly suck when i will have to pay just to hodl.

[Gianluca95]

You aren't correct. Consider that for someone which sell, there is someone which buy. You consider this prospective only for a type of market which sell, and not for a market which is in an equilibrium position. It's better that you say that "Price will drop constantly every month because many miner sold its bitcoin to pay electric bill, so, sell is more than buy actions".

[TrollinU]

According to this website an estimate of people that own bitcoin is: 500,000
https://bitscan.com/bitnews/item/how-many-people-really-own-bitcoins-and-why-does-it-matter
According to this website, average monthly spending is: $4250
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm

That is 500,000 bitcoin owners spending $4250 per month. That is $2.125 billion per month of costs.

Current bitcoins are about 13,600,000 at a price around $325/BTC.

So that is $4.42 billion worth of bitcoins.

If we are to believe the argument that miners must sell $1 million worth of bitcoins per day to pay for their electricity, then just as legitimate of an argument is that people that have bitcoins must sell $2.125 billion worth of bitcoins per month to pay for their monthly costs.

This means that within 2 months the bitcoin price will be zero. A month after that the bitcoin price will be -$150, 3 months after that... -$600.

So...can we put to rest this fallacy that miners are selling bitcoins to pay for their monthly expenses yet? Or do we wait 2 months to see if Bitcoin is $0/BTC?

Your whole premise is mindbogglingly flawed.
HODLers aren't in the "business" of HODLing. Therefore, they do not have operating costs that must be recouped every month. HODLers buy with money left over after paying bills.
Mining is a business, and businesses are in business to make money. They have a bottom line and those costs must be paid for. Anything that is left is available for speculating with, I guess... But these miners aren't like the old miners on CPU/GPU's where we would mine just to mine, and hold our coins to see what happens in the future. They are professional farms that have a full-time job to maintain their systems. Rent, Electric, staff, internet and hardware... These all cost big money for these farms. Costs that must be recouped first. Since ASIC can't be re-purposed, they need to paid for as fast as possible before they become inefficient and obsolete. My old graphics cards could be used for other things, and sold on Craigslist or ebay. No one wants an ASIC that is tired and makes no money.

Elwar, you're starting to sound like these trolls. Finding any pitiful argument you can as an excuse. Give it up dude

[Elwar]

Your whole premise is mindbogglingly flawed.
HODLers aren't in the "business" of HODLing. Therefore, they do not have operating costs that must be recouped every month. HODLers buy with money left over after paying bills.
Mining is a business, and businesses are in business to make money. They have a bottom line and those costs must be paid for. Anything that is left is available for speculating with, I guess... But these miners aren't like the old miners on CPU/GPU's where we would mine just to mine, and hold our coins to see what happens in the future. They are professional farms that have a full-time job to maintain their systems. Rent, Electric, staff, internet and hardware... These all cost big money for these farms. Costs that must be recouped first. Since ASIC can't be re-purposed, they need to paid for as fast as possible before they become inefficient and obsolete. My old graphics cards could be used for other things, and sold on Craigslist or ebay. No one wants an ASIC that is tired and makes no money.

Elwar, you're starting to sound like these trolls. Finding any pitiful argument you can as an excuse. Give it up dude

How is it different if a miner pays $325 in equipment/electricity/rent/etc. for a bitcoin and a HODLer pays $325 for a bitcoin? All of the sudden because of "ASICS" the miner is more likely to sell for fiat than anyone else who buys a bitcoin? Is there some mentality among miners where they got into Bitcoin because they don't believe in Bitcoin?

There is no difference. If I can go out now and buy a USB ASIC that costs $250 plus $75 in electricity throughout the lifetime of the hardware but it yeilds me 1 bitcoin, how is that any different from me going out and paying $325 for a bitcoin? Am I going to sell that 1 bitcoin because I mined it? That is the premise that is all screwed up.

[TrollinU]

Your whole premise is mindbogglingly flawed.
HODLers aren't in the "business" of HODLing. Therefore, they do not have operating costs that must be recouped every month. HODLers buy with money left over after paying bills.
Mining is a business, and businesses are in business to make money. They have a bottom line and those costs must be paid for. Anything that is left is available for speculating with, I guess... But these miners aren't like the old miners on CPU/GPU's where we would mine just to mine, and hold our coins to see what happens in the future. They are professional farms that have a full-time job to maintain their systems. Rent, Electric, staff, internet and hardware... These all cost big money for these farms. Costs that must be recouped first. Since ASIC can't be re-purposed, they need to paid for as fast as possible before they become inefficient and obsolete. My old graphics cards could be used for other things, and sold on Craigslist or ebay. No one wants an ASIC that is tired and makes no money.

Elwar, you're starting to sound like these trolls. Finding any pitiful argument you can as an excuse. Give it up dude

How is it different if a miner pays $325 in equipment/electricity/rent/etc. for a bitcoin and a HODLer pays $325 for a bitcoin? All of the sudden because of "ASICS" the miner is more likely to sell for fiat than anyone else who buys a bitcoin? Is there some mentality among miners where they got into Bitcoin because they don't believe in Bitcoin?

There is no difference. If I can go out now and buy a USB ASIC that costs $250 plus $75 in electricity throughout the lifetime of the hardware but it yeilds me 1 bitcoin, how is that any different from me going out and paying $325 for a bitcoin? Am I going to sell that 1 bitcoin because I mined it? That is the premise that is all screwed up.

You can't guarantee that $325 is going to produce 1 Bitcoin. If you go buy that Bitcoin, you can.
As I said before, since it's an ASIC, an "Application specific" piece of hardware, there is no other use than to mine Bitcoins, so no resale value outside of this tiny economy. And with difficulty shifts and price shifts, it becomes exponentially harder to know what you will end up with in the end. You should want to have that piece of hardware paid for ASAP. Hell, that thing could fry the day after any warranty is up and it no longer produces anything but the smell of fried circuits. This is also a bit relative since it's a fairly trivial amount of money you are risking compared to the astronomical amounts put up by some of these farms that have the ability to create real sell pressure. It's all a race against the clock with these guys. In two weeks that same investment makes diminished returns of sometimes 40-60% and because it's not predetermined, you have to do what you can while you have the chance.
My main point is that there are a lot of unknowns in the miners mind. More so than just "What will the price be at some point in the future?"

[Zeta0S]

According to this website an estimate of people that own bitcoin is: 500,000
https://bitscan.com/bitnews/item/how-many-people-really-own-bitcoins-and-why-does-it-matter
According to this website, average monthly spending is: $4250
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm

That is 500,000 bitcoin owners spending $4250 per month. That is $2.125 billion per month of costs.

Current bitcoins are about 13,600,000 at a price around $325/BTC.

So that is $4.42 billion worth of bitcoins.

If we are to believe the argument that miners must sell $1 million worth of bitcoins per day to pay for their electricity, then just as legitimate of an argument is that people that have bitcoins must sell $2.125 billion worth of bitcoins per month to pay for their monthly costs.

This means that within 2 months the bitcoin price will be zero. A month after that the bitcoin price will be -$150, 3 months after that... -$600.

So...can we put to rest this fallacy that miners are selling bitcoins to pay for their monthly expenses yet? Or do we wait 2 months to see if Bitcoin is $0/BTC?

auw, that hurts 

[fewcoins]

The only flaw in what you calculated is the $1million+ per day will be completely sold to cover cost when in fact only $1.3mil is mined per day in total!
So to cover costs, which isn't even paid on daily basis but rather mostly weekly & monthly to employees and bills, you are probably looking at maybe slightly over $1million per week at the MOST not per day!!! Which would probably still mean $20mil worth of bitcoin is being mined but not sold right away... Most miners financial advisors are telling them to hold mostly coins until the price goes up anyway! 

[bornil267645]

The way Bitcoin rocket is fueling up in the past months, I hope it doesn't blast off to the sun and gets BURNT !!!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Monday 10 February 2014
almost 1 year old article ?

So Bitcoin should have been zero in June? That would have made Prof. Bitcorn right.

Did he say $10, or was it below $10? I thought it was at $10 rather than below.

mumble... mumble... Zeno's Paradox... mumble... ahem, right, zero is asymptotic.

It was below $10 a share (whatever a bitcorn share is).

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.  Miners/speculators will be best served to acknowledge the meltdown has begun, act quickly and take fleeting profit off the table.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12#ixzz3MXaZbtaP

This has been discredited quite some time ago.
He still doesn't agree that he was wrong, though,

Maybe he just got the timeline wrong. It still seems to be quite "trending downwards", as they say