Poll: What will the USD/BTC exchange rate do as the dollar collapses?

[KenJackson]

I've read that the conditions that caused the market collapse in 2008 are worse today than they were then, and the US government's ability to keep the dollar solvent is diminished because of the FED's constant printing of money,

So consider the case where there's a major financial catastrophe in which people and nations loose confidence in the dollar.  Everyone will scramble to move their dollar assets into something else.  Most notably, precious metals, but also other currencies if any are less affected.

I'm very curious to know how bitcoin will fare.

I'm guessing that people well see bitcoin as an additional instrument to flee to.  Something like gold.  And that therefore we will see one bitcoin exchange for a great many more dollars than we see today.

So what do you think?  What factors that might affect the exchange rate?   

[Stedsm]

I hope that we will see BTC break its ties with the fuat currency US but that's wishful thinking.

As long as BTC doesn't plummet with USD then we should be grateful

[MarketNeutral]

Consider that hyperinflation has more in common with deflation than it does with inflation. Also consider that the prices of things people need often follow a different trajectory than the prices of things people want.

[Guido]

over the next 5 years, demand for bitcoin will greatly increase and the price will follow
demand for $ will greatly decrease and it's value will follow imo

I look forward to a time when we're not even interested in cashing altcoins out for shitty fiat and more services and goods will be on offer, not just for bitcoin for some of the better alts too

bitcoin as a single player is not healthy

[Possum577]

The OP's premise is good but there's another reality I want to add to the discussion.

If the value of the dollar is going down, it'll cost more to buy things everyone needs (i.e., groceries, gas, etc.). If salaries don't increase and the cost of goods goes up people will need to use their savings to buy what they need. This savings is, theoretically, what could have been converted into BTC. But it won't be available because it will be needed to cover the difference in the cost of goods.

[findftp]

All people want to get rid of their dollars once it collapses.
Anything you can buy with it is good enough, also bitcoin.
I think paper gold will collapse as well.
Nobody is stupid enough to trade gold for paper at a collapse.
Well, maybe one or two morons.

[fenican]

Betting on a dollar collapse, at this point, is exceptionally stupid. It remained stable during the crises years from 2008-2013 and is now surging with the US economy. Low fuel prices only add fuel to that fire and obviously the Fed has stopped QE and may soon be selling bonds to push up interest rates. All bullish for USD.

Future rise in the value of BTC will have nothing to do with the demise of the dollar. It has EVERYTHING to do with the success and increasing popularity of Bitcoin as a complementary currency.

[findftp]

Betting on a dollar collapse, at this point, is exceptionally stupid. It remained stable during the crises years from 2008-2013 and is now surging with the US economy. Low fuel prices only add fuel to that fire and obviously the Fed has stopped QE and may soon be selling bonds to push up interest rates. All bullish for USD.

Last time I checked FED balance sheet it expanded without pace.
Now they say they have stopped, but Japan is jumping in the same role.

I don't think it is stupid to bet on a collapse because sooner or later it will happen.
If it happens in 20 years, I'm very happy to have taken precautions already.
Later, I will watch this post and smile.

Heck, I might even edit the post and add another smiley!

[bornil267645]

I don't know what will happen to BTC, but I do hope it brings good for the Bitcoin economy.

[malaimult]

The answer is in your question. Since the USD/BTC exchange rate is based on both the value of dollars and of bitcoin, when one value declines then all else being the same, the other will appear to be stronger. In your scenario where the dollar looses it's value then one dollar will be able to buy less amounts of bitcoin.

Now how realistic your scenario to actually happen is an entirely different story

[KenJackson]

Betting on a dollar collapse, at this point, is exceptionally stupid.

I've heard or read several economists explain why the collapse of the dollar is mathematically unavoidable.  The US is 18 trillion dollars in debt, and growing.  If interest rates are raised, the interest payments will quickly swamp all tax proceeds.  But low interest rates are having their own adverse affects.

I know people have been predicting that it will be "this year" for years.  But the fact that it hasn't happened yet speaks to the skill of the manipulators.  Still, it can't go on indefinitely. That is, the status quo is unsustainable.

[TrailingComet]

BTC will rise but perhaps not by as much as we originally believed

[Q7]

Currently i don't see there is any direct tie between usd and btc. Unlike gold which tends to move in the opposite direction with the demise of dollar, btc has not reach that level yet. Btc acceptance rate is still considered low which should be the main reason.

[Argwai96]

Betting on a dollar collapse, at this point, is exceptionally stupid.

I've heard or read several economists explain why the collapse of the dollar is mathematically unavoidable.  The US is 18 trillion dollars in debt, and growing.  If interest rates are raised, the interest payments will quickly swamp all tax proceeds.  But low interest rates are having their own adverse affects.

I know people have been predicting that it will be "this year" for years.  But the fact that it hasn't happened yet speaks to the skill of the manipulators.  Still, it can't go on indefinitely. That is, the status quo is unsustainable.

Who is to say that the US government is not able to realize large budget surpluses prior to interest rates rising to more normalized levels? There is massive amounts of excess liquidity in the banking system and a lot of slack in the economy so it would not be unrealistic to expect that interest rates to remain low for a long time (in terms of years)

[NotLambchop]

...
I've heard or read several economists explain why the collapse of the dollar is mathematically unavoidable. ...

>economists
>mathematically unavoidable

Those aren't economists, bro.  They're colloquially referred to as "Batshit Crazies."

[rogerwilco]

A devaluation of the dollar would mean the dollar price of BTC would go up, even if BTC simply maintained its original purchasing power.

But then, if the purchasing power of BTC remained constant through a dollar crisis, then people would see its value and begin buying it...

[KenJackson]

Those aren't economists, bro.  They're colloquially referred to as "Batshit Crazies."

I know, I know.  You're more intelligent and better informed than James Rickards, Ellen Brown, Bill Holter, Bix Weir, Martin Armstrong, Porter Stansberry and all the rest.  But all the same, it's kind of arrogant to call them crazy.

There's a question that is sometimes asked that seems appropriate: "Has any country ever printed its way to prosperity?"  The answer is no.  Printing money doesn't create wealth; it just steals it from the poor.

[finnile]

A devaluation of the dollar would mean the dollar price of BTC would go up, even if BTC simply maintained its original purchasing power.

But then, if the purchasing power of BTC remained constant through a dollar crisis, then people would see its value and begin buying it...

Its not necessary that people will buy bitcoin. I think the price of BTC would be also affected.
I am guessing, more money would flow into buying precious metals

[NotLambchop]

Those aren't economists, bro.  They're colloquially referred to as "Batshit Crazies."

I know, I know.  You're more intelligent and better informed than James Rickards, Ellen Brown, Bill Holter, Bix Weir, Martin Armstrong, Porter Stansberry and all the rest.  But all the same, it's kind of arrogant to call them crazy.

They're crazy tho.  The ones not trying to sell you shit, that is:  their books, their politics, their coin, their YouTube vids, nothing--doing time for fraud, books/vids to pay fines for fraud--in that order.

There's a question that is sometimes asked that seems appropriate: "Has any country ever printed its way to prosperity?"  The answer is no.  Printing money doesn't create wealth; it just steals it from the poor.

It's a question that makes as much sense as "what color is 2."  It's nonsensical, it's ill-formed.
If the question is "has any fiat-based country ever become more prosperous," the answer is fuck yeah!

Finally, what is the difference between printing money and printing (mining) Bitcoin?  How can printing* Bitcoin  "create wealth"?  Stop listening to loons & learn basic economics, brah.

*14% of all bitcoins in existence were "mined" this year.

[brg444]

*14% of all bitcoins in existence were "mined" this year.

How else do you propose we distribute a new form of monetary commodity you genius