Are we at rally top now?

[Wary]

1w MACD divergence isn't random walk line. In fact, it is nice and accurate sin wave. The only difference is that it oscillates not around zero.

In 2012 it oscillated above zero, so that even bottoms were green.
In 2013 it oscillated about zero, so green and red were about the same size.
In 2014 it oscillated below zero, so it was green only on tops.
It looks that in 2015 even the top will be red. In fact, it is possible that we are at the top right now.

Since the tops of 1w MACD divergence are rally tops, we may be at the rally top RIGT NOW! SELL !!!  





P.S. Did I just invented a wheel EW?
P.P.S. To invalidate it, we need a couple of green candles, going up fast. Then what I thought was a peak, would be a launch pad


EDIT: To avoid confusion. I was talking about MACD histograms, rather than MACD line itseld.

[catena5260]

According to your graph we should expect some green lights before the top, like we see near Aug.

Also we might be in a transition of patterns process, like happened sometime between 2012 and 2013 pattern, or from 2013 pattern to 2014 pattern

[RyNinDaCleM]

You can see that MACD does have a similar movement like EW. I drew this chart on October 1st and have been spamming it around the forum every so often to show the progress. The price lines weren't drawn to be predictive and the MACD lines were just to show what I approximately expected it to do. It has done it for the most part and I'm waiting for the divergence to call this bear dead.


Now, if we use a similar approach on the weekly chart, I could expect something like this to happen.


Again, this is not for predictive uses. No fibo projections are used here so price points are not to be used 
On the weekly scale, we should expect to see Bearish divergence with the next Bull market but the weekly MACD will get above the zero line, so don't worry Wary.
As for the histogram, it should not make a lower low as you have it drawn (it could, but not likely imo) as long as we don't fall too hard.

[RyNinDaCleM]

According to your graph we should expect some green lights before the top, like we see near Aug.

Also we might be in a transition of patterns process, like happened sometime between 2012 and 2013 pattern, or from 2013 pattern to 2014 pattern

Not necessarily! In August the lagging MACD was moved by the April-May rally which was a different degree wave than the one we've been seeing since the early part of October. Where it is now, is about as close as it needs to get. Not that it can't, but it doesn't have to so you shouldn't enter a trade with that type of expectation. Think of everything since that May top as the same degree as the April-May rally, just that the rally was the counter trend move to the decline since the ATH.

I hope that made sense

[adaseb]

Keep in mind those oscillators don't always work especially when someone is on a very high decline.

It only works best for stocks.

[Wary]

According to your graph we should expect some green lights before the top, like we see near Aug.

Also we might be in a transition of patterns process, like happened sometime between 2012 and 2013 pattern, or from 2013 pattern to 2014 pattern

At previous top (June-August) we had very little green light. Currently movement to green stopped and even slightly reversed. The shortest red candle was 2 weeks ago, Dec 8, since them they are growing. Which may mean that we are already over top inflection point without reaching green, just like we were over bottom inflection point without reaching red in 2012.

Unless, as you've said, the pattern have changed.

[God27]

This is the top.

[Wary]

You can see that MACD does have a similar movement like EW. I drew this chart on October 1st and have been spamming it around the forum every so often to show the progress. The price lines weren't drawn to be predictive and the MACD lines were just to show what I approximately expected it to do. It has done it for the most part and I'm waiting for the divergence to call this bear dead.


Now, if we use a similar approach on the weekly chart, I could expect something like this to happen.


Again, this is not for predictive uses. No fibo projections are used here so price points are not to be used  
On the weekly scale, we should expect to see Bearish divergence with the next Bull market but the weekly MACD will get above the zero line, so don't worry Wary.
As for the histogram, it should not make a lower low as you have it drawn (it could, but not likely imo) as long as we don't fall too hard.

Thanks for the comment, but to make any sense of it, I have to read more about EW.  
I don't necesserely expect lower low too. My point was that we shouldn't postpone selling till 1w MACD histogram enters green area, since this time top has [probably] already come and gone without it reaching green.

[RyNinDaCleM]

You can see that MACD does have a similar movement like EW. I drew this chart on October 1st and have been spamming it around the forum every so often to show the progress. The price lines weren't drawn to be predictive and the MACD lines were just to show what I approximately expected it to do. It has done it for the most part and I'm waiting for the divergence to call this bear dead.


Now, if we use a similar approach on the weekly chart, I could expect something like this to happen.


Again, this is not for predictive uses. No fibo projections are used here so price points are not to be used  
On the weekly scale, we should expect to see Bearish divergence with the next Bull market but the weekly MACD will get above the zero line, so don't worry Wary.
As for the histogram, it should not make a lower low as you have it drawn (it could, but not likely imo) as long as we don't fall too hard.

Thanks for the comment, but to make any sense of it, I have to read more about EW.  
I don't necesserely expect lower low too. My point was that we shouldn't postpone selling till 1w MACD histogram enters green area, since this time top has [probably] already come and gone without it reaching green.

Sorry! I guess I did go a bit on a tangent...
The point from my post was that we should be expecting a slight bullish divergence in the Histogram<->price for the bottom and as I replied to catena5260, this rise doesn't need to make a weekly cross before topping. As you've already pointed out, the histo is starting to roll back over already, indicating loss of momentum and likely the top. When the MACD bounces off the signal line, it is quite bearish.
The only thing that can save this uptrend is some very heavy buying support, and I don't mean a couple of whale buys pumps either.

[Wary]

You can see that MACD does have a similar movement like EW. I drew this chart on October 1st and have been spamming it around the forum every so often to show the progress. The price lines weren't drawn to be predictive and the MACD lines were just to show what I approximately expected it to do. It has done it for the most part and I'm waiting for the divergence to call this bear dead.


Now, if we use a similar approach on the weekly chart, I could expect something like this to happen.


Again, this is not for predictive uses. No fibo projections are used here so price points are not to be used  
On the weekly scale, we should expect to see Bearish divergence with the next Bull market but the weekly MACD will get above the zero line, so don't worry Wary.
As for the histogram, it should not make a lower low as you have it drawn (it could, but not likely imo) as long as we don't fall too hard.

Thanks for the comment, but to make any sense of it, I have to read more about EW.  
I don't necesserely expect lower low too. My point was that we shouldn't postpone selling till 1w MACD histogram enters green area, since this time top has [probably] already come and gone without it reaching green.

Sorry! I guess I did go a bit on a tangent...
The point from my post was that we should be expecting a slight bullish divergence in the Histogram<->price for the bottom and as I replied to catena5260, this rise doesn't need to make a weekly cross before topping. As you've already pointed out, the histo is starting to roll back over already, indicating loss of momentum and likely the top. When the MACD bounces off the signal line, it is quite bearish.
The only thing that can save this uptrend is some very heavy buying support, and I don't mean a couple of whale buys pumps either.

OK, now getting it

[Bejkn]

sure, the prices would have been hovering in that unless savior being.

[rebuilder]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

[Tzupy]

No, the top of the "rally" was in November at 454$, but 1w MACD is lagging and the market moved faster than in June - September,
so the information is less useful. 3d MACD is more useful than 1w, you can see the tops of the ascending sub-waves of wave C in green.

[fewcoins]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER 

[Brewins]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER 

Weren't you one the nowhere but down team

And now saying prices going to rise

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER 

Weren't you one the nowhere but down team

And now saying prices going to rise

Where I come from they call it being a gas-bag:D

[fewcoins]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER 

Weren't you one the nowhere but down team

And now saying prices going to rise

Um no I am only on the money making team... we make unbias opinions depending on how the market trends are moving... I mean c'mon someone just dropped 5k coins are we didn't evenbreak 320 yet

[jaredboice]

Yes he's a serial troll, possibly a swing trader.  Or he may just be gaining trust as a bull in order to flip the script to bear later.

past posts from fewcoins (who is appears to be associated with NotLampchop, falllllling, riiiiiiising, sniveling, fallinglantern, freebambi)



"Why don't you think it will go below 300??? The supply is being created at a massive rate & the demand is disappearing!!! Almost gone!!!"

"STOP THINKING YOU FOUND SOMETHING AMAZING THAT WILL BLOW UP ONE DAY TO MAKE YOU RICH! IT WILL NOT!!!"

"How is it a bull market long term when miners will continue to sell every coin they mint? That means unlimited selling pressure... think."

"The point is everybody is selling BTC, nobody is BUYING bitcoins and this will make the price go down until people panic & make the price decline even further! Endless cycle!!!"

"More like 3 year bear market into a crash that wipes BTC out just like that digital gold junk (the first virtual currency) TALK TO ALL THE PEOPLE WHO LOST MONEY IN THAT CURRENCY then get back to me!"

"There is no new money coming in and miners are producing $1.8m in bitcoin PER DAY EVERY DAY, It will never stop or slow down. When do you see that much money coming into BTC daily???  Probably around when the last bitcoin is set to be mined & right before all the miners shut off their machines since mining no longer has a reward for them why would they run these machines & pay electricity just to keep the network running???

I think everyone will cash out long before the last bitcoin is mined anyway."

"LOL! Hilarious!!! Let's keep talking about rising prices when BTC has never increased in value since it passed $1,000 ONCE"

"Well people have been jumping onto this sinking ship all year! So hold your hat & jump onto the ride with money you don't mind giving away"

"And right now the supply is getting bigger and bigger everyday while the demand is getting smaller and smaller! Meaning the price will continue to go down!!! "



With language like that, it would appear as if he may have just been influencing weak hands to dump so he could pickup cheap coins. Either way, his flip-flopping reveals an agenda

[jaredboice]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER  

Weren't you one the nowhere but down team

And now saying prices going to rise

Um no I am only on the money making team... we make unbias opinions depending on how the market trends are moving... I mean c'mon someone just dropped 5k coins are we didn't evenbreak 320 yet

Riiiiiiight.   Just like you were previously describing the "unlimited selling pressure" and how "the price will continue to go down" and a "3 year bear market into a crash that wipes BTC out (that one was my favorite)  

Time to create a new account maybe? LOL

[TrollinU]

Looking at the last time the indicator was flattening out after being in the red, that was closer to the bottom than the top... Might want to think hard about trading on this.

Seriously! It is sad how you guys look at all these technical indicators and talk about a strategy when you have no idea what you're talking about... last time this happened we went from 430 to 690~

1W indicators are turning EXTREMELY BULLISH! Yes we will have plenty of waves but every week should be higher and higher now!!!

BUY NOW OR CRY LATER  

Show me these "Extremely" bullish indicators on the weekly chart
You still haven't showed me the "extremely over sold" conditions I asked for a week or so ago, so I don't expect to see a chart from you this time either.
You are plain wrong. Your hype pump is now broken and your plan is failing before your eyes.