Chinese bears vs USA bulls, which one will win over?

[ivyleague1985]

According to my observation, most Chinese bitcoin traders are seriously bearish towards the market right now. Why? Because in China, there happens a contagion of bearish sentiment everywhere. 1) The Chinese economy is slowing down to 7% and see no signal of acceleration. 2) The political elites are flighting for power instead of for the economic growth. 3) The RMB is suffering from severe depreciation pressure and 4) Chinese government banned any fiat cashflow into the bitcoin. So there is no new money in China.

While in the USA, the traders are sharing some bullish sentiment towards bitcoin. Why? Because 1) The economy is gaining traction and grew 5% Q-O-Q; 2) Global hot money needs to find a way to ride on the strong dollar index and bitcoin is a perfect tool for the hot money to repatriate into USA. (Legal way means tax for hot money.) 3) This winter is warm and storm-free, which means 1Q15 will have stellar GDP and all risky assets will sky-rocket by the end of 1Q15! 4) The inflow channel of fiat is legal and thriving in the USA with successful exchanges. More friends and families will have a chance to buy a little bit bitcoin.

I personally believe that US traders will dominate the Chinese ones, although Chinese traders can collaborate with their exchange bots to manipulate the price. Why? Because the Wall Street is on our side. Some hedge funds will relocate their assets towards bitcoin from Jan 1st 2015 and well connected traders may already be aware of that. And think why Buffet warned about bitcoin, because he knows something we don't, something like that a billionaire will open a bitcoin fund soon and steal Berkshire's investor base, etc...

So if you are one of the US traders, buy the dip during US night while Chinese bears and their exchange bots attack. And let our long positions destruct their faked short positions! Long live the USA!

[Honeypot]

In all fairness, the chinese exchanges have a degree of manipulation that dwarfs US exchanges, just like that of corruption comparison in both sides.


US will be the driving force in 2015 and beyond.

[inca]

In all fairness, the chinese exchanges have a degree of manipulation that dwarfs US exchanges, just like that of corruption comparison in both sides.


US will be the driving force in 2015 and beyond.

Yep. Zero fee Chinese exchanges will simply be ignored once a regulated US exchange with heavy depth comes onboard.

[dumbdragon]

If such exchange appears rather than when.

[stonerider]

In the long term, bet on the Chinese.

[gentlemand]

If such exchange appears rather than when.

If one doesn't then we might as well all go home. I assume the Bitlicence will open the way to something worth trusting.

I'm looking forward to the present generation of exchanges turning into irrelevant dust very soon. They're not good enough.

[wadili89]

My impression was China was more bullish than the Western traders.
Eventually Chinese sentiment will create the trend so I will go with the Chinese bears.

[ElectricMucus]

5% economic growth in the U.S. my ass.

[Muuurrrrica!]

the west is insignificant in bitcoin trades. China controls the lions share of the trade of the token. So the muricans need to understand: they lost this game to the east (didn't hold, sold it all to china). Now live with it lovely delusional american obese white trash ...


CNY is where it's at


last 24h tradevolume:

CNY: 460k coins
USD: 33k coins
EURO: 1500 coins
RUR: 300 coins (insignificant russian market)

these numbers are what's normal trading action these days. China had 1300% more volume than the western exchanges. That's the norm now.
You americans think of yourself as way more important than what you actually are.

You also see from these numbers:

Whole of European continent doesn't even trade 50% of daily inflation of the coins (3600 new coins every day)
So since nobody is interested in the coins price keeps going down thanks to (not) brilliant fundamental idea of satoshi to give it big inflation.

But most of you don't even have half a brain

[zakalwe]

VERY good chance to su subtract somehow cryptos away from Chinese hands. After all it's decentralized and China is still in middle eve.

[ivyleague1985]

Do you know those 460K coins are mostly faked through exchange bots? How naive you are to trust their numbers? I talked with several Chinese, even themselves don't believe in their trading volume.

the west is insignificant in bitcoin trades. China controls the lions share of the trade of the token. So the muricans need to understand: they lost this game to the east (didn't hold, sold it all to china). Now live with it lovely delusional american obese white trash ...


CNY is where it's at


last 24h tradevolume:

CNY: 460k coins
USD: 33k coins
EURO: 1500 coins
RUR: 300 coins (insignificant russian market)

these numbers are what's normal trading action these days. China had 1300% more volume than the western exchanges. That's the norm now.
You americans think of yourself as way more important than what you actually are.

You also see from these numbers:

Whole of European continent doesn't even trade 50% of daily inflation of the coins (3600 new coins every day)
So since nobody is interested in the coins price keeps going down thanks to (not) brilliant fundamental idea of satoshi to give it big inflation.

But most of you don't even have half a brain

[FPCN]

The major pools, Discus Fish, Antminer and BTCChina pool are all from China.

[inca]

Do you know those 460K coins are mostly faked through exchange bots? How naive you are to trust their numbers? I talked with several Chinese, even themselves don't believe in their trading volume.

the west is insignificant in bitcoin trades. China controls the lions share of the trade of the token. So the muricans need to understand: they lost this game to the east (didn't hold, sold it all to china). Now live with it lovely delusional american obese white trash ...


CNY is where it's at


last 24h tradevolume:

CNY: 460k coins
USD: 33k coins
EURO: 1500 coins
RUR: 300 coins (insignificant russian market)

these numbers are what's normal trading action these days. China had 1300% more volume than the western exchanges. That's the norm now.
You americans think of yourself as way more important than what you actually are.

You also see from these numbers:

Whole of European continent doesn't even trade 50% of daily inflation of the coins (3600 new coins every day)
So since nobody is interested in the coins price keeps going down thanks to (not) brilliant fundamental idea of satoshi to give it big inflation.

But most of you don't even have half a brain

But back in the real world we all know that no fee trading for Chinese exchanges means the volume is entirely meaningless.

Big inflation? Are you aware that bitcoin has exponentially reducing inflation? Of course you know that the inflation was twice as 'big' before the last halving?

At least try and troll with some grasp of the facts.

[Muuurrrrica!]

But back in the real world we all know that no fee trading for Chinese exchanges means the volume is entirely meaningless.

Big inflation? Are you aware that bitcoin has exponentially reducing inflation? Of course you know that the inflation was twice as 'big' before the last halving?

At least try and troll with some grasp of the facts.

exponeitally reducing over what timeframe? 20 years?


well, if the volume isn't real, why is it accepted as real in all places?
These are real trades aren't they?

[NotLambchop]

...
Big inflation? Are you aware that bitcoin has exponentially reducing inflation? Of course you know that the inflation was twice as 'big' before the last halving?
...

Yeah, ~14%/year.   With not enough new money coming in, the pyramid crumbles 

[Febo]

I dont understand why economic growth would be good to bitcoin? Bitcoin sort of act like gold and when there is economic growth people sell Gold and buy shares or start their own business. When recession start people stop their businesses, since they dont bring any profit and buy Gold and Bitcoins.

So your OP is fundamentally wrong.

[balu2]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

[Big0Bang]

the west is insignificant in bitcoin trades. China controls the lions share of the trade of the token. So the muricans need to understand: they lost this game to the east (didn't hold, sold it all to china). Now live with it lovely delusional american obese white trash ...


CNY is where it's at


last 24h tradevolume:

CNY: 460k coins
USD: 33k coins
EURO: 1500 coins
RUR: 300 coins (insignificant russian market)

these numbers are what's normal trading action these days. China had 1300% more volume than the western exchanges. That's the norm now.
You americans think of yourself as way more important than what you actually are.

You also see from these numbers:

Whole of European continent doesn't even trade 50% of daily inflation of the coins (3600 new coins every day)
So since nobody is interested in the coins price keeps going down thanks to (not) brilliant fundamental idea of satoshi to give it big inflation.

But most of you don't even have half a brain

As a Chinese,I can only say that volume could be fake, why? Many traders dropped out while the volume keep going up? I'm not stupid.

[Melbustus]

Over a year ago I noted that the next bull wave will be driven by the US. I noted that this hinges on US exchange liquidity, which hasn't materialized yet, but is in the works. These things take time.

The next bitcoin boom phase will be driven by the USA.

Or so I suspect, at least.

We've just seen large investments in US-based bitcoin companies by savvy VC firms. Circle and Coinbase are both saying that they're going to make bitcoin easier for people to acquire and use. I'm sure they'll be successful in that, but they're also probably targeting next-gen uses of the blockchain (see Naval Ravikant, Co-founder/CEO of Angellist's "The Internet of Money": http://startupboy.com/2013/11/07/bitcoin-the-internet-of-money/ ). Seeing some real apps along those lines will drive another wave of excitement, and convince yet another slice of the populace that bitcoin has merit and is here to stay.

Along the way, someone is going to solve the money-transmission licensing problem. The reason we don't have any solid US-based exchanges is due to state-by-state MTL requirements, and specifically, the surety-bond coverage requirements for businesses to obtain such licenses. Either Coinbase, Circle, or some new well-funded entity will go through the expensive work of getting the licenses, or start a fund/company that's knowledgeable about bitcoin and willing to underwrite the bond coverage. Solving this problem will lead to much better liquidity in the US, and allow for some of the next-gen services outlined above, as well as advanced trading and hedging.

That leads to the beginning of real integration with Wall St. It seems like they're *starting* to shift from completely mocking bitcoin to dipping their toes in the water. They need *much* better liquidity to do anything significant, but unleashing real US exchange platforms will make that possible. Additionally, vehicles like SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust are already proving popular, and that trend will continue. The potential issue of near/medium term regulatory uncertainty was removed with last month's senate hearings, and further financial integration and products will come as a result, in due time.

In any event, these things are all inter-related and tend to snowball. The hard parts of getting the ball rolling and reducing regulatory uncertainty have already happened.

China can do what they want; I think it's far more likely that the US ends up housing the most robust and sophisticated bitcoin ecosystem.

[unent]

the west is insignificant in bitcoin trades. China controls the lions share of the trade of the token. So the muricans need to understand: they lost this game to the east (didn't hold, sold it all to china). Now live with it lovely delusional american obese white trash ...


CNY is where it's at


last 24h tradevolume:

CNY: 460k coins
USD: 33k coins
EURO: 1500 coins
RUR: 300 coins (insignificant russian market)

these numbers are what's normal trading action these days. China had 1300% more volume than the western exchanges. That's the norm now.
You americans think of yourself as way more important than what you actually are.

You also see from these numbers:

Whole of European continent doesn't even trade 50% of daily inflation of the coins (3600 new coins every day)
So since nobody is interested in the coins price keeps going down thanks to (not) brilliant fundamental idea of satoshi to give it big inflation.

But most of you don't even have half a brain

As a Chinese,I can only say that volume could be fake, why? Many traders dropped out while the volume keep going up? I'm not stupid.

I'm sure loads of europeans trade on exchanges like bitstamp where the prices are in dollars. I doubt there are many exchanges where you can trade the euro against bitcoin besides the kraken (which also has a BTC/USD market).