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Author Topic: So, are these real?  (Read 1393 times)
Ultimist
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June 29, 2012, 08:30:53 AM
 #1

Butterfly Labs has announced some new ASIC mining rigs to be released in October, with some pretty jawdropping stats as far as hashes/sec.

Are they for real or am I dreaming?

New to all this. Trying to learn as much as I can.

Thanks!

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June 29, 2012, 08:33:47 AM
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Yap, it's real Cheesy
Ultimist
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June 29, 2012, 08:50:38 AM
 #3

Cool, I hope so. I only have my PC to mine with at the moment... my Radeon 5850 gets about 300 Mh/s... not much. Can't really afford to build a separate mining rig right now, so BFL's little Jalapeno for $150 sounds just about right for me. I only wish it was being released NOW so I could start mining with it, lol...

I really hope these guys come through. A rig that pays for itself in 2 weeks means I can use the profits to get another, and another, and another, etc... Tongue

Ult

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June 29, 2012, 08:53:27 AM
 #4

I think you should start as fast as possible with Jalapeno, because as difficulty raises value of the block goes down. Currently you receive 50$ per block, in the near future you will get $25...
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June 29, 2012, 08:58:51 AM
 #5

I think you should start as fast as possible with Jalapeno, because as difficulty raises value of the block goes down. Currently you receive 50$ per block, in the near future you will get $25...
It's BTC50 and BTC25, and it's unrelated to the difficulty.

In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits. And if you preorder now you're taking a risk with respect to the delivery time. Read up on all the information available and then decide if you want to make this investment. There's no free lunch, and there's no sustainable way to quadruple your wealth every month.

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Ultimist
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June 29, 2012, 09:02:05 AM
 #6

I think you should start as fast as possible with Jalapeno...

Well, the earliest I can start is when the Jalapenos are actually available. I hope their release time of October is firm.

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June 29, 2012, 09:06:03 AM
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It's BTC50 and BTC25, and it's unrelated to the difficulty.

In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits.

Yes BTC, not $, my bad, sorry, but it's connected to difficulty.
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June 29, 2012, 09:08:22 AM
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In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits.

In a way, that's a shame. It seems that these new ASIC machines will quickly make it nearly impossible for the little guy to mine enough BTC to make it worth the effort.  Something like this could turn BitCoin into something that benefits those who already have the BTCBTCBTC or $$$, and the little guy gets the tiniest, tiniest scraps that are leftover... and that sounds too much like a monetary system we are already too familiar with.

Anyway, hopefully I can build a small Jalapeno army rather quickly within a few months, and then start buying the $1299 ones that do 40 Gh/s... and slowly work my way up to the 1000 Gh/s monster.

One good thing, though... I doubt many people will invest in the more expensive ASICs right away... They'll likely want to see the results (and consistency) delivered by the Jalapeno before plunking down a huge investment for the (supposedly) more powerful units.


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June 29, 2012, 09:14:59 AM
 #9

Do you know Aristotle's theory of slavery? Aristotle's theory of slavery holds that some people are naturally slaves and others are naturally masters.
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June 29, 2012, 09:24:30 AM
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Aristotle could be wrong... he's just human, after all.

My theory is that every human being deserves to be treated with dignity and respect.  Every human being deserves to eat and have shelter, and have a chance for a good life.

Phooey with masters and slaves.... we're supposed to be brothers and sisters!

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June 29, 2012, 09:26:58 AM
 #11


It's BTC50 and BTC25, and it's unrelated to the difficulty.

In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits.

Yes BTC, not $, my bad, sorry, but it's connected to difficulty.
No, the block reward will become BTC50 starting with block 210,000, regardless of what the difficulty will be at the time. Variations in the network hashrate can have an effect on the date of this, but only a minor one.

In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits.
In a way, that's a shame. It seems that these new ASIC machines will quickly make it nearly impossible for the little guy to mine enough BTC to make it worth the effort.  Something like this could turn BitCoin into something that benefits those who already have the BTCBTCBTC or $$$, and the little guy gets the tiniest, tiniest scraps that are leftover... and that sounds too much like a monetary system we are already too familiar with.
Bitcoin isn't communism or Robin hood. It's not supposed to stop people from being able to use their earned wealth. It's "just" a much better way to store and exchange this wealth. And, ASIC isn't changing the situation one bit, the amount of rigs you can buy is exactly proportional to your wealth whether they are based on CPU, GPU or ASIC.

Anyway, hopefully I can build a small Jalapeno army rather quickly within a few months, and then start buying the $1299 ones that do 40 Gh/s... and slowly work my way up to the 1000 Gh/s monster.
You do know there's a 4 month waiting list, right? If you use the profit from the first Jalapeno to buy the second, you'll be waiting for a long time.

One good thing, though... I doubt many people will invest in the more expensive ASICs right away... They'll likely want to see the results (and consistency) delivered by the Jalapeno before plunking down a huge investment for the (supposedly) more powerful units.
You'll be surprised.

Once the units are materialized and proven to have the stated specs, there will be an even greater stampede on orders, and possibly a longer waiting list (during which the difficulty will soar). Either you wait out and lose the opportunity for big profit, or you take a risk and either win big or lose big. For you it may seem a lot to spend $30K on this, but there are people with sufficiently deep pockets and enough experience with Bitcoin to do this.

I'm not saying that you should or shouldn't invest - I'm just saying it's not the get rich quick scheme you seem to think it is, you need to study this, make an informed decision, and own up to it.

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June 29, 2012, 09:29:50 AM
 #12

Aristotle could be wrong... he's just human, after all.

My theory is that every human being deserves to be treated with dignity and respect.  Every human being deserves to eat and have shelter, and have a chance for a good life.

Phooey with masters and slaves.... we're supposed to be brothers and sisters!


I was against him and this theory maybe... 15 years and then I realized what he wanted to say.
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June 29, 2012, 09:39:16 AM
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Short answer to the OP's question: the announcement is real, but the product probably isn't as yet (most likely their figures and dates are just predictions based more on imagination than reality).

The way this has been announced just does not stack up however you look at it (just released their FPGA products which are selling like hotcakes and probably had many more months of good sales left). This reeks of just hyping their next gen product, which is likely just an idea in someones head, to weaken their competitors. Exercise caution.

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June 29, 2012, 09:44:17 AM
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Once the units are materialized and proven to have the stated specs, there will be an even greater stampede on orders, and possibly a longer waiting list (during which the difficulty will soar).

That's exactly why I don't think too many will order the $30k rig until the Jalapeno proves itself. There might be a few who do... The Jalapeno is going to take a few months to prove itself. You can't just plug it in, see the 3.5 Gh/s and assume that it will stay that way. It could burn out in 5 minutes for all we know, or it might generate just enough BTC to pay off the unit, and then burn out. People with lots of cash didn't get that way by foolishly investing large sums of money in unproven technology. You can bet that the smart ones will wait at least a bit to see how this all pans out.

I don't see this as a "get rich quick scheme." I see it as an income opportunity. I simply want to be able to keep up with the pack to generate a decent income. My Radeon 5850 would net me about BTC1.50 a month if I let it go 24/7, but I use my computer... BTC1.50 a month isn't exactly getting rich, NOR is it a reasonable income. The Jalapeno does about 11.67 times what my 5850 can do... That would net me BTC17.07 per month (at the current difficulty), which is much better. Not enough to consider an income, but definitely enough to help with some of the bills. So if I can get at least a few Jalapenos and keep up with the difficulty changes, and the drop to BTC25 per block, I can help myself with at least a decent supplemental income.


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June 29, 2012, 09:48:39 AM
 #15

In the first few days of the ASIC being out they can be quite profitable, but the difficulty will quickly increase to diminish the profits.

In a way, that's a shame. It seems that these new ASIC machines will quickly make it nearly impossible for the little guy to mine enough BTC to make it worth the effort.  Something like this could turn BitCoin into something that benefits those who already have the BTCBTCBTC or $$$, and the little guy gets the tiniest, tiniest scraps that are leftover... and that sounds too much like a monetary system we are already too familiar with.

Anyway, hopefully I can build a small Jalapeno army rather quickly within a few months, and then start buying the $1299 ones that do 40 Gh/s... and slowly work my way up to the 1000 Gh/s monster.

One good thing, though... I doubt many people will invest in the more expensive ASICs right away... They'll likely want to see the results (and consistency) delivered by the Jalapeno before plunking down a huge investment for the (supposedly) more powerful units.


Bit-pay processed 46000BTC worth of orders in the first two days after the announcement, so it's safe to say the demand's there  Wink

Whether BFL can actually make anything remotely close to their projections remains to be seen.

I don't see this as a "get rich quick scheme." I see it as an income opportunity. I simply want to be able to keep up with the pack to generate a decent income. My Radeon 5850 would net me about BTC1.50 a month if I let it go 24/7, but I use my computer... BTC1.50 a month isn't exactly getting rich, NOR is it a reasonable income. The Jalapeno does about 11.67 times what my 5850 can do... That would net me BTC17.07 per month (at the current difficulty), which is much better. Not enough to consider an income, but definitely enough to help with some of the bills. So if I can get at least a few Jalapenos and keep up with the difficulty changes, and the drop to BTC25 per block, I can help myself with at least a decent supplemental income.


Your calculations are way off.
Even if you're only getting 300Mhash (undervolting?) you'd be earning BTC5.3 per month or so at the current difficulty. On a decent PPS+ scheme like projectx, Clipse's pool or GPUMAX, you'd get >6.
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June 29, 2012, 09:57:09 AM
 #16

Your calculations are way off.
Even if you're only getting 300Mhash (undervolting?) you'd be earning BTC5.3 per month or so at the current difficulty. On a decent PPS+ scheme like projectx, Clipse's pool or GPUMAX, you'd get >6.


Yeah, it's late (early) and I'm tired, lol.  I was doing a 10-day average on what I've seen so far, forgot to multiply by 3.

I'll have to check out those other pools. Thanks for the heads up, and for the math, lol. My brain isn't working at this hour (4am) I guess.

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June 29, 2012, 10:07:35 AM
 #17

Even if you're only getting 300Mhash (undervolting?)...

Hmm... nope... Just running my XFX Radeon 5850 Black Edition at stock settingss. Should I be getting more?

Just checked, my 5850's voltage is currently 1087 mV... core clock at 765, memory clock at 1125

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June 29, 2012, 10:26:44 AM
 #18

Once the units are materialized and proven to have the stated specs, there will be an even greater stampede on orders, and possibly a longer waiting list (during which the difficulty will soar).
That's exactly why I don't think too many will order the $30k rig until the Jalapeno proves itself. There might be a few who do... The Jalapeno is going to take a few months to prove itself. You can't just plug it in, see the 3.5 Gh/s and assume that it will stay that way. It could burn out in 5 minutes for all we know, or it might generate just enough BTC to pay off the unit, and then burn out.
BFL will offer a warranty on the units. I don't think they specified its length but it should be at least 6 months, if the Jalapeno is working at all you can assume it will continue working that long.

People with lots of cash didn't get that way by foolishly investing large sums of money in unproven technology. You can bet that the smart ones will wait at least a bit to see how this all pans out.
They didn't get that way by watching from the sidelines as opportunities pass by, either. By the time you know the investment is a sure thing it is already too late to profit from it. Being a smart investor consists in figuring out which of the risky investments have the best prospects of being profitable.

It is common knowledge that the stated performance specs are well within the capabilities of ASIC, and it is by a company that is already offering the best mining products on the market. If you don't think that's good enough, you're leaving an opportunity for those who do to profit.

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June 29, 2012, 06:47:18 PM
 #19

I'm pretty sure once the ASIC solutions are shipped, GPU mining will effectively be dead. I personally run a 35GH/s mining operation and can confidently say that as far as efficiency goes, I've squeezed every last drop out that there is to be had. Despite this and economies of scale, there's no way my operation can keep up with their reported $1300 box (40GH/s) and its insignificant power consumption. My bills for the month to keep the operation running are roughly half the price of one of these new 40GH/s rigs.

So, look forward to some great deals on GPU hardware come October-December.  Wink
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June 29, 2012, 10:09:22 PM
 #20

So, look forward to some great deals on GPU hardware come October-December.  Wink

is that october-december 2012, 2013 or 2014?
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