What's happening in December?

[Spekulatius]

It [ASIC mining] will affect the amount of sold coins for a while and that is because the absolute amount of coins being created increases for a certain period of time. During the ASIC boom this amount will be significantly higher than usual. We will have 2 week periods where the regular 7200 bitcoins (or 3600 after December) per day simply does not apply, difficulty might double in one of those periods meaning that there are actually much more coins than usual being created.

Good point.
1. down (through increased coin production)
2. up (through reward halving)

Or the other way around, depending on what event hits first.

[smoothie]

It [ASIC mining] will affect the amount of sold coins for a while and that is because the absolute amount of coins being created increases for a certain period of time. During the ASIC boom this amount will be significantly higher than usual. We will have 2 week periods where the regular 7200 bitcoins (or 3600 after December) per day simply does not apply, difficulty might double in one of those periods meaning that there are actually much more coins than usual being created.

Good point.
1. down (through increased coin production)
2. up (through reward halving)

Or the other way around, depending on what event hits first.

Increased coin production will only be temporary because once difficulty adjusts for the faster coin generation the coin supply will get dried up.

[proudhon]

BTW, anyone wandered into the hardware marketplace around here?  If you want a GPU, you're in luck!  I wonder if we'll see a large decrease in the hash rate in the months leading up to the reward change as people try to get rid of their GPUs in anticipation of getting ASIC hardware.

[ldrgn]

I don't think that the reward drop is even close to being priced in yet. It's partially priced in but it will truly be only when it starts to become a major talking point.

The reward drop is something everyone learns about in their first 5 minutes of Bitcoin without fail. Public discussion isn't really a good way to gauge awareness because everyone's already aware of it and has bought in with knowledge of the drop in mind.