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Author Topic: Prepare for a new big drop.  (Read 5498 times)
Amph
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December 30, 2014, 10:25:29 AM
 #21

Double digits this year.

very unlikely, many people will buy at 100-200 range is not even funny, worse case scenario is 200 or around that
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jertsy
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December 30, 2014, 10:30:26 AM
 #22

Almost everyone who want to sell have already sold, now the only sell pressure comes from daily coin generation, and since many profit oriented mining operations are going to shut down, the mining will shift to home miners, who are the backbone of bitcoin ecosystem. A true bitcoin miner never sell more than 10% of his coins in 5 years period

The biggest mining operations might force everyone else out by continuing to mine when it's unprofitable. They have probably got the money to do it saved from earlier this year when mining was very profitable.
Mobius
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December 30, 2014, 10:45:40 AM
 #23

I think the only thing that is certain right now is that BTC will eventually rise. It is just a matter of time.
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December 30, 2014, 10:48:58 AM
 #24

In statistic terms there is a lot of probability that bitcoin will rise and not drop. Then, there are many interest about bitcoin and no one would want that bitcoin drop to 100-150$. So, keep calm and wait for the next year, 'cause I think that thing will be better than this year  Smiley

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December 30, 2014, 10:54:25 AM
 #25

I don't think we go beyond the previous bubblepeak of USD 257.
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December 30, 2014, 11:03:35 AM
 #26

It's interesting to see analyses more bearish than mine. Grin
https://www.tradingview.com/v/MW7ZZW0C/
https://www.tradingview.com/v/DMMyayp9/

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
CyberSuzy
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December 30, 2014, 12:49:08 PM
 #27

We've seen the initial drop by people selling to get fiat for the holidays, then a small correction and stabilization from all the people buying btc as gifts and thinking it's the bottom. Now that the holidays are over and demand is lower than ever, we can expect a new big drop, manipulators and hackers will also have time again to do their thing.
Just look at that huge ask-mountain, it's insane, people want to cut their losses that bad..! Don't hold the bag!

It might happen this droop will have mythical dimensions.
yefi
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December 30, 2014, 12:53:38 PM
 #28

It's interesting to see analyses more bearish than mine. Grin
https://www.tradingview.com/v/MW7ZZW0C/
https://www.tradingview.com/v/DMMyayp9/

PIKACHUUUUU!!!!

Bananana
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December 30, 2014, 12:55:31 PM
 #29

Too many people sell for new year and christmas, wait for 2015, I expect some small rally on the first week.

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December 30, 2014, 01:03:17 PM
 #30

It might happen this droop will have mythical dimensions.

Like Venus de Willendorf?
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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December 30, 2014, 01:08:50 PM
 #31

Everyone that sold for tax purposes has sold. Buying for the new tax season starts in about 40 hours.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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December 30, 2014, 02:02:56 PM
 #32

Almost everyone who want to sell have already sold, now the only sell pressure comes from daily coin generation, and since many profit oriented mining operations are going to shut down, the mining will shift to home miners, who are the backbone of bitcoin ecosystem. A true bitcoin miner never sell more than 10% of his coins in 5 years period

Surprisingly, the 24 hr volume on bitstamp has also gone down. Which might be one reason for the stable price.

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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December 30, 2014, 02:10:32 PM
 #33

Shopping centers are out of stock of many things I want. Oh my gods! They are gone forever! This time of year is when I used to like to go on warm weather vacations except now I live there. My point is, this is only a cycle thing. I didn't expect it to go this low, but I'm not too surprised.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
sickpig
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December 30, 2014, 03:00:54 PM
 #34

Almost everyone who want to sell have already sold, now the only sell pressure comes from daily coin generation, and since many profit oriented mining operations are going to shut down, the mining will shift to home miners, who are the backbone of bitcoin ecosystem. A true bitcoin miner never sell more than 10% of his coins in 5 years period

The biggest mining operations might force everyone else out by continuing to mine when it's unprofitable. They have probably got the money to do it saved from earlier this year when mining was very profitable.

I thought the same as you until I saw the last series of "home" miners i.e. the SP20 and the S5. For a few bucks you'll get the best J/G ratio and without worrying about pre-orders.

I think that mining centralization is less a threath that I suppose it was a few months ago.

See: https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4days

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
ThatDGuy
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December 30, 2014, 05:05:18 PM
 #35

I think the only thing that is certain right now is that BTC will eventually rise. It is just a matter of time.

This has always been true, and will be again.  I don't see us going significantly lower.
Rawted
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December 31, 2014, 01:03:03 AM
 #36

Double digits this year.
You keep saying that, but then why not single digits?
The question posed was this year (2015). There will still be a set percentage of people buying in at the "absolute bottom" marks along the way - keeping it treading above that line through 2015.

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December 31, 2014, 03:50:26 AM
 #37

Well I for one don't think it will drop, it will remain steady.

a fool and his money ...
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December 31, 2014, 09:18:32 AM
 #38

what many dumbos in here don't realize:
if it breaks below 280$ now for much longer than half a day it's finito, done with, over, byby - all your dreams will be crushed in that case and bitcoin back to 5$ because the longterm bulltrend to which everyone is pointing all the time would be broken, a new bearmarket on the super-trend would start and we'd likely end up sub 1$ prices.

We're dangerously close to that trendline. It'll be one epic panic if we break that. If it doesn't bounce now you can burry your pipedreams.

bigtimespaghetti
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December 31, 2014, 04:50:54 PM
 #39

what many dumbos in here don't realize:
if it breaks below 280$ now for much longer than half a day it's finito, done with, over, byby - all your dreams will be crushed in that case and bitcoin back to 5$ because the longterm bulltrend to which everyone is pointing all the time would be broken, a new bearmarket on the super-trend would start and we'd likely end up sub 1$ prices.

We're dangerously close to that trendline. It'll be one epic panic if we break that. If it doesn't bounce now you can burry your pipedreams.

There will be a lot of opportunity in this scenario. But I do not think we will see the mega drop. Panic, yes,  but not a washout like that.




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fewcoins
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December 31, 2014, 06:06:37 PM
 #40

There's simply too many people who will buy at ~250-280, don't expect a lower drop than that. If somehow we go below, don't expect it to last long and grab your cheap coins.

I think one factor that effects that is how fast the drop happens. I remmeber, when the price was around 450, then people used to say if it would go to 300, then they would buy 50K worth of bitcoins. But the drop was happening really fast, and a lot of them didn't. However the high 200 , and the low 300 does look like a stable bottom for now.

Point is as the price gets lower it takes less people to literally buy the entire "sell-able" supply... remember not everyone is selling and not everyone has their coins on exchanges or online at all for that matter.

At $200 per coin, I can literally buy all the bitcoins for sale with no issues... Other people who aren't broke (Less than $200K income per year) can join in on the buying and that's what is happening now and preventing BTC from breaking $300. Now the 2015 pump is on the way so good luck to all!  Kiss
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