Size of the October batch

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

Now since orders are streaming in, and are above everybodies expectations..
It makes me curious how you guys estimate the size of the first batch wich is gonna ship in October?
Is the first batch for example gonna contain hundred units, or maybe a thousand?
Also, when is BFL gonna ship the next batch, is this know yet as an raw estimate?

I hope BFL can help me and other people out by answering these questions.

Thanks.

[||bit]

Now since orders are streaming in, and are above everybodies expectations..
It makes me curious how you guys estimate the size of the first batch wich is gonna ship in October?
Is the first batch for example is gonna contain hundred units, or maybe a thousand?
Also, when is BFL gonna ship the next batch, is this know yet as an raw estimate?

I hope BFL can help me and other people out by answering these questions.

Thanks.

Yeah, it would be helpful to know. I wouldn't consider ordering any more BFL hardware until I knew what kind of hash rate was gong to hit the network, and how this would affect the difficulty level over the first few months. It seems BFL should let the customers know more, unless they don't want to make a negative impact on sales by providing information that shows a poor return on the network for late purchases. It should not be a company secret on how much they are selling, when a basic understanding of how the products will perform on the network is a fundamental consideration a potential customer must make.

||bit

[koin]

It makes me curious how you guys estimate the size of the first batch wich is gonna ship in October?

which october?  2013?  you know there's not a snowball's chance in hell of it being october 2012.

[Dargo]

There has been some discussion of this toward the end of this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89521.100

My guesstimate, based on that discussion, is that we have something like 100 Gh/order, give or take a factor of 2. Yeah, that's really rough, but we don't have much data to go on. Apparently BFL made some vague reference around the time we had 550 orders that everyone who had ordered so far might get in the first (not necessarily October) batch (we are currently well over 900 orders). Call it an even 500, and going by my guesstimate, this means the first batch will be anywhere from 25 - 100 Th. This would be consistent with BFL's claim that those in the first batch will do quite well profit-wise (though a lot would still depend on how large the second batch is and how soon it comes). ASIC is about 20x better than GPU/FPGA in terms of hash/$, so ignoring power consumption, ASIC will do better than GPU/FPGA does now at least until the network reaches 250 Th (=20*12.5). But I urge people to read through the indicated discussion and make their own guesstimates. It's possible we will hear more from BFL next week and get a much clearer idea.   

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

Can nobody make an estimate?
If not we need to wait if BFL wants to disclose this.

[Dargo]

Can nobody make an estimate?
If not we need to wait if BFL wants to disclose this.

Well, as I mentioned in my previous post, there has been some discussion of this, and we do have some data on orders that people have reported. In this thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

we have 47 orders (out of 1027) reported. 47 orders for 9,238 Gh = 196.5 Gh/order. And if we can take seriously the report that BFL suggested the first batch was getting filled when we hit approximately 500 orders, we are looking at 500 orders x 200 Gh/order = 100 Th for the first batch. Now, I'm inclined to think this is an overestimate. The 47 orders we have data for are self-reported by forum members, and this may not be a representative sample. The sample may have an unusually large number of enthusiastic miners making larger orders than most will. So I'm taking 100 Th as the upper limit on an estimate, with the actual number falling somewhere between 50 - 100 Th. It could even be less than 50 Th, but I doubt it. Without getting something more precise from BFL, or more data from people about their orders, I think this is about the best we can do estimate-wise.

[squall1066]

also i am seeing posts of people placing an order with bank transfer, getting the order confirmation through, then cancelling.
(for any number of reasons time/money/rep)

some people are probably not even saying their order after seeing what some people can afford to throw on this, so i reckon there are alot of orders for "coffee warmers", I'm not afraid to say, i cant afford one, I'm just going to mine GPU until its just not worth it any more, then later i will re-assess and try and get one when the network has settled and its easier to see what outlay/reward is.

[Dargo]

also i am seeing posts of people placing an order with bank transfer, getting the order confirmation through, then cancelling.
(for any number of reasons time/money/rep)

some people are probably not even saying their order after seeing what some people can afford to throw on this, so i reckon there are alot of orders for "coffee warmers", I'm not afraid to say, i cant afford one, I'm just going to mine GPU until its just not worth it any more, then later i will re-assess and try and get one when the network has settled and its easier to see what outlay/reward is.

Good point - people who only ordered a Jalapeno or two are going to be less inclined to report this compared to people who want to brag about ordering a bunch of singles or a MR. And I agree that there may be a significant number of cancellations for the wire transfer orders.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

I've got a couple of quotes from email/messages send between me and BFL when I asked about the deliverey time if you order now:

This is not an official answer, but basd on our actual plans, my estimate is October or early September.

Delivery is not specified other than we start delivering in October. It could be much later than October. --Jody"

Then I asked:

Hello BFL,

Thank you for your fast response.

Now, since BFL cannot give an offical answer.
To quote a non-offcial statement  (since it's not on the website)  from the forum:

"Refunds and charge backs:  All sales are final unless we fail to perform.  That includes both performance and shipping targets.  60 days past target and we'll happily refund your purchase."

What is the official shipping target for my order if I place it right now?
And if BFL cannot give an offcial answer right now.
After I order, when do I recceive an official shipping target?

Sorry for these questions..
But I just want to make sure some things before I pay a very big amount of money without the option to chargeback.
I also really hope you guys understand that it's scarring customers away since there is no disclaimer or any terms and conditions on the website of BFL.
And the only real policies that are known, are posted on the Bitcointalk forums.

Thanks for any answer.

They answered with:

"Dear Grouver,

I understand your concerns with the fact that no disclaimer and policies is published yet. We're working on
it as we speak, and rest assured, it is and it will be customer friendly.Our target ship date is October and everything
is setup for shipping in October. However if something unexpected happen (like the need to modify wafer
and maskset for the chips), then that's where we might encounter a little delay (hence the 60 days past target
was mentioned).

The possibility of such thing happening is around 0.4%. Our only intention was to be transparent with our clients.
Please let me know if you have any other questions.


Regards,
BF Labs Inc.

Maybe this helps.

[Serge]

early September is not far out