Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%)

[notlist3d]

Only doing this for one week, to help out.   Creating a thread for this difficulty change.  I expect next week for philipma1957 to do it once again . 

Bitcoin Wisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,784,549,535 (+7.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1832 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    310,487,495 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.2 minutes

Looks like were up for a few percentage change, as It gets closer we will see more accurately how much of a positive difficulty change.

Not a moderated thread.  Please keep anti-mining, people bashing, etc out of thread.

As always Happy Mining!

[moko666]

yes first time on december difficulty was increased and now it is showing next difficulty to 7%+ change
also difficulty is already on top, what impact it will have on bitcoin price it will riseup?

[adamg83]

I really think that due to the paycoin miners switching back and the new antminers being delivered the difficulty will rise more than the 7%, maybe 10-12%?  Thats my very inexperienced estimate

[philipma1957]

thanks.  between holidays the s-5 thread and the sp20 threads I am pushed a bit.  I will let you run it this time.  I will lock the other and link it here.


to all compare both bitcoinwisdom and bitcoincharts many jumps end up right in between their estimates.

[klondike_bar]

my guess is 7-8%. lots of hardware turning on in the next 3-4 days, likely followed by a lull and the removal of most gear over 1.2w/GH

[philipma1957]

my guess is 7-8%. lots of hardware turning on in the next 3-4 days, likely followed by a lull and the removal of most gear over 1.2w/GH

still hoping for 4-5% but you are more likely the better guesser..



I am too buzzed no more posting for a while

[charlieSeen]

my guess is 7-8%. lots of hardware turning on in the next 3-4 days, likely followed by a lull and the removal of most gear over 1.2w/GH

I don't think the increase will be caused by so much new machines being turned on, but rather the machines that were turned on in the last ~1.5 months being redirected towards bitcoin again (from paycoin mining).

If you notice the 512 block time it spiked over 10% in only a matter of hours

[suchmoon]

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

[xstr8guy]

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

Very astute observation!

Home mining has been, for some time, virtually insignificant to the total hashrate. But there has been a lot of hashrate shipped to home miners in the last week. And the industrial, large-scale miners have seemed to pull way back on their aggressive expansion.

But despite the apparent slow growth in the network... this is just the calm before the storm. There are hundreds of PH/s just about to hit the network in the next month or two.

[philipma1957]

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

Very astute observation!

Home mining has been, for some time, virtually insignificant to the total hashrate. But there has been a lot of hashrate shipped to home miners in the last week. And the industrial, large-scale miners have seemed to pull way back on their aggressive expansion.

But despite the apparent slow growth in the network... this is just the calm before the storm. There are hundreds of PH/s just about to hit the network in the next month or two.

that is only true if bitfury and knc  decide to go for it.   

With the price at 310 usd a coin  they may not . 

[aurel57]

I say with Bitmain whole selling "used" S3's at 500 units a batch it tells me they have switched out their farm of S3's to either S5's or maybe something even newer ?? Not sure how many batches of 500 they have to sell but each equals @250TH/s which if they switch out to S5's they pretty much double their hash rate.

Edit: I do know they will let a person order up to 2000 units per order.

[philipma1957]

I say with Bitmain whole selling "used" S3's at 500 units a batch it tells me they have switched out their farm of S3's to either S5's or maybe something even newer ?? Not sure how many batches of 500 they have to sell but each equals @250TH/s which if they switch out to S5's they pretty much double their hash rate.

Edit: I do know they will let a person order up to 2000 units per order.

yeah and if you can run 250 th at 6 cents a kwatt it could make sense to buy them.  they do .8 watts  a gh or 800 watts a th

so 250 x 800 = 200kwatts

cost for them is about 65000 add psu's building etc 20000 = 85000

and after 1 year the 85000 = 92000 you make 7 k  

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$

yeah but look here

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ 

they have  a   4.52% jump   so 6 or 7 is in the middle.  I would love to see a solid drop in price to 175usd  this would scare the shit out of the big miners the dc's even make knc and bitfury sweat.


Blocks   337001
Total BTC   13.675M
 
Difficulty   40640955017
Estimated   42478493256 in 1687 blks
 
Network total   321462.682 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.63 / 543 s

[mavericklm]

Conservative: 9.8% Middle 14.5 % Continous: 28.5 %

http://nextdifficulty.com/

Don't care too much about it i just go with the flow...

[suchmoon]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

[notlist3d]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

Either way it's safe to say its a positive not negative change.  Some numbers look not so great on change.  We will see hopefully not the 10+ percentage.

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

Either way it's safe to say its a positive not negative change.  Some numbers look not so great on change.  We will see hopefully not the 10+ percentage.

amen to under 10+.. 

[mavericklm]

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

[philipma1957]

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

that would be an interesting number. I wonder if you may be correct.