Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%)

[philipma1957]

@ davejh

Need to study the math you used, but if correct margin is very tight for a big miner.

A small guy may say fuck it I will list my 10 s-3's on ebay cheap get 1000 usd back and buy a pair of sp20's.

I agree electricity price is one of the biggest factors on many thins including upgrades.  With my around 9 cent I can't bring myself to sell my S3's yet.  I keep miners longer then a lot probley do.  I just finally sold my dragon.  And the person who bought it got a good machine that just needed cheaper electric costs.

I really don't want to change out gear to much during winter.  Once summer comes and i need to do more cooling is when I personally will have decisions on what I want to do. 

  yeah you are on the fence at the 9 cent a kwatt with the s-3 .
 if we go 60 days and only move to 50 diff they don't need to be sold today.

fo me my cost in the winter is 13 cents 10 cents once you add in the "free"  they give.  I had to sell and get sp20's.


I always have to sell quicker then most miners due to 16 cent summer rates and 13-10 cent winter rates.


I do have a pair of s-3's mining at 3 cents and they are staying.

[mavericklm]

Is it a bit doomed the mining?

I mean price is down!
new efficient miners are coming, resulting in diff jumps...

It's winter and they are good heaters(i'm but naked because of them ) but wtf are we going to do in the summer time?!?!?!?!?!??!!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?

We are going to have some interesting time this spring and and so on...

Maybe the price will go so much down that they will ''stop'' making new hardware and the diff will stay about the same all year...

[xstr8guy]

Is it a bit doomed the mining?

I mean price is down!
new efficient miners are coming, resulting in diff jumps...

It's winter and they are good heaters(i'm but naked because of them ) but wtf are we going to do in the summer time?!?!?!?!?!??!!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?

We are going to have some interesting time this spring and and so on...

Maybe the price will go so much down that they will ''stop'' making new hardware and the diff will stay about the same all year...

I'm done when summer comes. I live in the desert and the added heat from minining last summer killed my old A/C unit and I had to replace it. Even my supplemental Tripplite server cooler died. The only thing that survived was my portable evaporative cooler. Winter electrical rates are great but they end in April.

The good news, miners provided 100% of my heat so far this winter. But I have gas heat so it hasn't significantly reduced my electric bill.

[notlist3d]

Is it a bit doomed the mining?

I mean price is down!
new efficient miners are coming, resulting in diff jumps...

It's winter and they are good heaters(i'm but naked because of them ) but wtf are we going to do in the summer time?!?!?!?!?!??!!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?

We are going to have some interesting time this spring and and so on...

Maybe the price will go so much down that they will ''stop'' making new hardware and the diff will stay about the same all year...

I'm done when summer comes. I live in the desert and the added heat from minining last summer killed my old A/C unit and I had to replace it. Even my supplemental Tripplite server cooler died. The only thing that survived was my portable evaporative cooler. Winter electrical rates are great but they end in April.

The good news, miners provided 100% of my heat so far this winter. But I have gas heat so it hasn't significantly reduced my electric bill.

Yea that is the problem with summer.  Ambient heat can cause some real headaches on heat exhaust.   You have to factor in duct work exhaust or even more expensive AC cooling.

[mavericklm]

Desert and low humidity... look into evaporative cooling. Water, pump, wet pad and fan and you are good to go!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!

Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!

[notlist3d]

Desert and low humidity... look into evaporative cooling. Water, pump, wet pad and fan and you are good to go!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!

Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!

The mining farms very GREATLY on quality.   Most of them it's airflow that is the key.  Moving old air out and new air in.   If you do it wrong it gets to hot and any miner with temp sensor can have lots of trouble.  Big fans and big exhusts can be very important at data center level. (Also depends on miner something such as the 1T dragon shoot out very hot air, some new miners can do a lot less heat)

[mavericklm]

If your ambient gets above 40c then you need evaporative cooling, cause just replacing hotter air with hot air is not enough.

[klondike_bar]

The good news, miners provided 100% of my heat so far this winter. But I have gas heat so it hasn't significantly reduced my electric bill.

yeah that bummed me too - the heat of 1Kwh (~$0.15) is equal to about $0.02-0.025 worth of natural gas, so savings are marginal

[notlist3d]

I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time:    After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours

So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.

[philipma1957]

I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time:    After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours

So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.

yeah 7 to 8 is far better then 14.

Next  2 jumps are important. be nice to see 3's or less.

[klondike_bar]

I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time:    After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours

So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.

yeah 7 to 8 is far better then 14.

Next  2 jumps are important. be nice to see 3's or less.

might see a negative tbh. if anyone was considering shutting off hardware durin ghte last few days, a 7% drop in mining income might be the final blow.

[davejh]

might see a negative tbh. if anyone was considering shutting off hardware durin ghte last few days, a 7% drop in mining income might be the final blow.

To go negative at this point in the difficulty cycle would pretty-much require 90% of the network to shut down immediately. We may well see another negative in the next difficulty window though. The anticipated 6% to 7% is actually well within the level of statistical noise and may be a slight over-estimate of the hashing capacity in which case a negative change in one of the next difficulty windows is quite likely.

Here's some more data on how the difficulty will continually change, even if the hash rate remains constant: http://hashingit.com/analysis/28-reach-for-the-ear-defenders

[mavericklm]

negative diff? not yet...
i tell you something negative about mining: DARK AGE IS COMING!

[davejh]

So back to my original point a guy with a 1000 s-3  farm with 6 cent power 8 cent total costs is in a very hard spot to be.

these 250-275 a coin prices are very hard on farmers in the 500th to 1000th range

No question. At under $200 then miners with very low operating costs can just about hang in, but many others won't and this mid range will be the worst affected. They rely on other people to manufacture the hardware they're using and thus have to pay the manufacturer's margins too (although those manufacturers will also be on low margins because not many people will be buying). Large miners who have their own ASIC designs and can run on very thin margins can probably survive the best but they're >> 1 PH.

The miners in the best position are those that have just about seen an ROI on their existing hardware but have mid-to-late 2014 designs that are the most power efficient. That's a relatively small subset of miners though.

[notlist3d]

Well bitwisdom is now going up not down in it's estimate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time:    After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours

Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.

[philipma1957]

Well bitwisdom is now going up not down in it's estimate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time:    After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours

Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.

A small drop since you posted  Still we were just a tiny bit over 14% at one time so the 7 and change is a lot better.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,717,800,414 (+7.57%)
Adjust time:   After 36 Blocks, About 5.8 hours
Hashrate(?):   297,674,047 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   8:15 (5.7 minutes ago)

[klondike_bar]

8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon

[philipma1957]

8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon

 8.2 is okay

new estimates:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,965,768,087 (+4.53%) ----- note always high if the last jump was a plus
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 14.6 days
Hashrate(?):   308,829,479 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   12:30 (4.3 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   338688
Total BTC   13.717M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43931416923 in 2016 blks  this is (-0.09%)
 
Network total   327134.300 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.75 / 534 s



(-0.09%)   to   (+4.53%)


43931416923  to 45,965,768,087


price is 266 usd   

[davejh]

8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon

I'm not sure that 8.2% will push that many miners to switching off their hardware, especially as the next difficulty may reduce again, but the 10% reduction in the USD/BTC price probably will as the cumulative effect is nearer 17%.

In equilibrium (coin price not changing, and no major technology breakthroughs) we'd expect to see something in the range of 2x to 3x difficulty change per year (2x if there's no major technology investment, 3x if there is). 2x is approximately 0.2% expansion per day, while 3x is approximately 0.3%; those equate to approximately 2.7% and 4.3% difficulty changes respectively, but the noise margin is as large (if not larger). If the BTC price stays depressed, however, then I'd definitely expect to see some reductions in the overall hash rate. A lot of miners will obsolete older equipment and it's not clear that that equipment will really have a major resale value and is therefore less likely to reappear on the network in new locations.

[BTCish]

Did bitstamp issue was to blame for this price reduction, or is it was just a new year spending time ? And now emty January for many ?