Coinarch Daily Bitcoin Update
The first session of 2015 saw no real change in the bitcoin market with the bearish sentiment that prevailed at the end of 2014 showing little sign leaving on the first day of the New Year. Despite a few attempts at a bullish correction, the bitcoin price looks to have formed a congestion pattern and has been unable to break either its nearby key support or resistance levels.
There may be some respite in store for traders, however, with volatility expected to increase once the holiday hangovers are worked through and the world resumes its usual order. We therefore expect the current directionless state to end sometime in the next week.
January 1st Bitcoin Trading Session
The bitcoin price opened at around 318 on the 4H Bitfinex chart, after pulling back from a peak of around 322 in the previous session. With the 50 and 100 hour SMAs holding around 316 and 320 respectively, the price appeared in the mood for an attempt at an intermediate bullish correction up to the next key resistance level around 340. The emergence of sellers at around the 322 mark quickly killed this dream, however, and once again drove the price south.
At press time, the bitcoin price is trading around 316 and is consolidating sideways above the daily moving average.
What to Expect Today?
While there are some near-term bullish signals, the overall market outlook still appears bearish with the bitcoin price currently below the 50, 100 and 200 hour SMAs and the RSI sitting around 51. We expect the price to maintain its bearish state until it manages to break above the 50 hour and 100 hour SMAs. If this occurs, the bears’ grip should loosen which could bring a relatively unchecked run to the key resistance level of 340. In December and November, the price pulled backed from this area and ultimately fell to the 2014 low of 304, so bullish traders need to be wary of a repeat; a break above 340, on the other hand, should establish a longer term bullish rally towards 360 with an upside risk towards 373-375 area.
Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Sell (1 Buy 11 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Sell (4 Buy 6 Sell)
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