A bet on the future difficulty level

[CydeWeys]

Black8 and I have entered into a bet on the difficulty level at the next increase.  Both of us are registered on #bitcoin-otc.  Here are the signatures confirming the bet:

Code:

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

CydeWeys and black8 enter into a bet of 1 BTC on what the difficulty level
will increase to at block 127007.  CydeWeys bets 500,000.  Black8 bets
360,000.  Accordingly, the one who wins is the one whose bet is closer to
the actual difficulty level (i.e. if the difficulty level is less than or
equal to 430,000, Black9 wins; if it is greater, CydeWeys wins).  If
CydeWeys wins, Black8 will send payment to address
1LP3DrXnJPcjCwR3FmTHR57R2nf6V1jKSJ.  If Black8 wins, CydeWeys will send
payment to 15atSSWBCP5X3QPVVWb6faTZ1PRP6AeQ4s.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (MingW32)

iQIcBAEBAgAGBQJN1udbAAoJEMnUC7DZK7zz304P/3xWsEKWO5V9cYo7cPNgfrGT
tTD/Qx3VPsGuZ2L33kb26t8UHWKvDD+SsfC0oSdD1EhnsDN3yj9X2it1u/8uZ1qC
nXR+eZOiIQlqB3oTgRE5CrDmbvQLGLbCIPwaq2OdmcEFr9hKN1n79F3ARQWMbKt/
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pR5uq4sHYb7wRTB3noBEBOWhHtEYxH6PV1p6vTGcd10hh9zDOgu+n6Lm5+hpk4gB
JEg334L+d2LwePf+0sGiV9crw264AiFLlo1S83iareKMAJMbQw+FcJZrbTT1JSBS
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H9bAJhFRcSCsltrY0N8+dcVrO6vj3mv7fDTSdaMNvREfhSQawXvA8EBE+AElPs3e
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/Cd5HBe64BFleKscUUVj
=b3Fg
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1


CydeWeys and black8 enter into a bet of 1 BTC on what the difficulty level
will increase to at block 127007.  CydeWeys bets 500,000.  Black8 bets
360,000.  Accordingly, the one who wins is the one whose bet is closer to
the actual difficulty level (i.e. if the difficulty level is less than or
equal to 430,000, Black9 wins; if it is greater, CydeWeys wins).  If
CydeWeys wins, Black8 will send payment to address
1LP3DrXnJPcjCwR3FmTHR57R2nf6V1jKSJ.  If Black8 wins, CydeWeys will send
payment to 15atSSWBCP5X3QPVVWb6faTZ1PRP6AeQ4s.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (GNU/Linux)

iEYEARECAAYFAk3W5pMACgkQvCEYTv+mBWcvZgCgi85cpwiuBARF7g9yZCPkeldk
Y5cAoIpNDZgjV5xxi8kIspvMu6KDnBrH
=/SAv
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

This is my first time making a bet that is cryptographically sound, so that's fun.  None of the bets I've made in real life have been nearly this rock solid.

So, the question is, who do you guys think is going to win?  Discuss 

[1713883113]

1713883113

[1713883113]

1713883113

[k]

won't it still be 244139 at block 127007

now block 127008 is a different matter. I think ~360000 sounds about right. hard to see it going >400000

[CydeWeys]

Well the increase happens between block 127007 and block 127008, right?  Anyway, it's pretty clear what was meant.

I could see this bet going either way.  Hopefully that makes it a good bet.  And now that I have some money riding on it, I'm very curious to see the outcome.

[SgtSpike]

Two things.

1.  You should have bet 360,001. 
2.  The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000.  Just my opinion though, we'll see.

[CydeWeys]

1.  You should have bet 360,001. 

The way we made the bet was the only fair way to do it.  Otherwise he could just as easily have turned it around on me and insisted that he won for any value below 500,000.  Setting the victory condition in the middle of the two bets was the only way that actually allowed both sides to agree to it.

2.  The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000.  Just my opinion though, we'll see.

Want to put money on it?   

[SgtSpike]

1.  You should have bet 360,001. 

The way we made the bet was the only fair way to do it.  Otherwise he could just as easily have turned it around on me and insisted that he won for any value below 500,000.  Setting the victory condition in the middle of the two bets was the only way that actually allowed both sides to agree to it.

2.  The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000.  Just my opinion though, we'll see.

Want to put money on it?   

I see what you did there... 

I'll bet 1 BTC that the next difficulty jump will end up with difficulty closer to 400,000 than 500,000.  Deal?  I have no idea how to GPG though, you'll have to teach me.  Or you can go off of my feedback at bitcoinfeedback.com, either way.  But if you agree here on the forums, that will be taken as a binding betting agreement. 

[CydeWeys]

Hey now, you said it would be "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000".    It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.

As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/  Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.

[SgtSpike]

Hey now, you said it would be "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000".    It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.

As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/  Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.

Haha, no way I'm taking that bet!  That leaves you with all the room for a mistake in judgement on my prediction. 

My bet is that the difficulty will be 400,000, and unless you're changing your mind, your bet is that it will be 500,000.  That leaves 450,000 as the center point.  If you want to go over/unders, then my bet is that it will be below 450,000.  Take it or leave it, but it sounded like you were pretty confident in your bet at 500,000. 

[CydeWeys]

I'm not too confident in my bet at 500,000.  I was just sure his claim of 360,000 was too low, and 500,000 was the first thing I came up with as a counter-offer.  I'm not too sure of my other bet, and you're offering worse terms than that one, so I'll have to say no.

But I'll still consider myself to have won if the actual difficulty level is not "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000", even if there is no money riding on it 

[k]

CydeWeys, I'll take the bet if you're interested.

After the next difficulty change if the difficulty is <=430,000 I win. >430,000 you win. 1BTC stake.

(edit: changed <430,000 to <=430,000)

[CydeWeys]

All right, no more bets for now.  I might be up for another bet on what the difficulty level for the cycle after this one will be once the next cycle arrives.  I will grant that 430K is a big jump up from the present 244K, but I still think it's realistic given the explosive growth in Bitcoin's popularity and publicity.  Specifically, I think a lot of the capacity that is being added is simply videocards that were already hanging around, and were added to the network when their owners learned about Bitcoin.  I also think there's still a lot of equipment that was bought specifically for mining when the exchange rate was pushing 9 USD/BTC, a lot of which is still in the mail.  So we shall see.

Oh, and there was an unspoken assumption in the original bet that I figure is best to get out in the open.  Regardless of who wins the bet, so long as that bet is paid, both of us will rate each other as positive on #bitcoin-otc.  However, if someone loses and welches out, then the other person will rate them negatively.

[k]

All right, no more bets for now.  I might be up for another bet on what the difficulty level for the cycle after this one will be once the next cycle arrives.  I will grant that 430K is a big jump up from the present 244K, but I still think it's realistic given the explosive growth in Bitcoin's popularity and publicity.  Specifically, I think a lot of the capacity that is being added is simply videocards that were already hanging around, and were added to the network when their owners learned about Bitcoin.  I also think there's still a lot of equipment that was bought specifically for mining when the exchange rate was pushing 9 USD/BTC, a lot of which is still in the mail.  So we shall see.

just to confirm, does that mean then bet is on between you and me?

Oh, and there was an unspoken assumption in the original bet that I figure is best to get out in the open.  Regardless of who wins the bet, so long as that bet is paid, both of us will rate each other as positive on #bitcoin-otc.  However, if someone loses and welches out, then the other person will rate them negatively.

that's fine. I'll have to figure out how to rate on #bitcoin-otc. I'm a total irc noob. Been meaning to learn how to use it so this will be a good incentive.

[CydeWeys]

Kirian, if the bet was on, there would be a GPG-signed message to that effect like there was from Black8.  Instead, I said "no more bets for now", which means precisely what it sounds like.

[k]

no problem.

i misinterpreted the

All right, no more bets for now.

to mean that you'd accepted my bet but wouldn't take any more. that's all right.

good luck in your bet with Black8 but I reckon he'll be the winner

[CydeWeys]

No worries.

[CydeWeys]

The estimated difficulty level is hovering around 400,000 right now with over two days to grow.  I can win this still.  It's going to be close!

[k]

that 430,000 number is definitely going to be close - too close to call now. I didn't believe you had a chance.

did a calculation and if the block generation continues at 12/hour the difficulty will increase to ~423000. But if the hash rate increase over the next 2 days as it has been the next difficulty could go over the 430000 barrier.

[bcpokey]

I'm glad I didn't post in here before. When I first read this thread i was all "clyde is a sucka, just givin his money away". Now I stand humbled eating all kinds of nasty crow pie. The difficulty jump is still 500 blocks away, which I believe is 2 days give or take, but it's already coming right on up on his numbers, well done man, if you win the bet you deserve the monies

P.S. @ 400k+ difficulty (> 70% inc)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R0oECCuN6I

[CydeWeys]

I'll let you guys in on my original reasoning.  That 500K figure comes from my reckoning as to what the instantaneous difficulty level would be at block 127007.  Yeah, I plum forgot about figuring the 2000-block sliding window into my number, which obviously makes the calculated difficulty a lot less than the instantaneous difficulty at the time of switch-over.  The crazy thing is the instantaneous difficulty level is actually probably going to be above 600K at the time of block 127007 (it's at 520K now and rising).  That means it'll easily be way above 600K for the increase after this next one.  Holy crap!  Here's the chart to prove it:  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

But between me forgetting to figure in the sliding window, and Black8's bet being way too optimistic, the middle ground between the two has actually resulted in a highly competitive horse race.  It's still too close to say with much certainty which side of 430,000 we're going to see -- and that makes it a good and entertaining wager!


Kirian and BCPokey, you may commence the ingestion of humble pie    Oh, and Kirian, the block solving rate is at 12.83 and climbing right now.  I expect it to see at least 14 before the next difficulty level, which means your numbers are low, and hopefully the difficulty level at the switchover will not be 423,000, but rather, just a tad bit above 430,000.

[Steve]

You could have just described this as an over-under bet at a difficulty of 430,000 with black8 taking the under and CydeWeys taking the over.