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Author Topic: I believe theses quotes should now kill BS&T.  (Read 7205 times)
Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 12:03:38 AM
 #1

I have been joining this forum for two things: enthusiasm for Bitcoin and currency trading. For most of the time Bitcoin existed, it has an insanely volatile market which kept me tied on it a lot.

You all know I have been accusing Pirateat40 of running a Ponzi scheme for some time now. The reasons for that are manyfold, and discussed in other threads, but there's also the fact that my indicators never showed any footprints of him doing anything besides maybe a rare sell on Gox. No volume bloat to sell for millions, no indicators for extra demand, just silence. But this is not much of an argument for the average forum user.

There have been numerous theories on what Pirateat40 does. He had already encouraged posts that involve currency trading, namely dark pool sales to big investors. He had been leading people on to use this to fabricate explanations how his business might work, but never gave anything explicit before.

I'd like to emphasize here that even aside the trading techniques, the theories all make no sense. Arbitrage to what market? Volume is just insufficient. Arbitrage to dark pools? He would move the price when buying back, I don't see that. Plus he would be effectively shorting Bitcoin on every trade, putting his customers' funds at a heavy risk.

He was always so smart to not put too much emphasis on any theory. Until today.

@Vandroiy

Let's say you have 135K USD right now.  I need you to buy Bitcoins without changing the Mt.Gox rate by 2%.  You have 3 days to do it, nah I'll give you 7 days.  GO!!!

Let me know how that works out for you.

Trading your tiny amounts of BTC has created a false perception of how you think this market works.  Just another reason why I don't enjoy swimming in this pool. Sad

Now, for those of you not trading currencies, I will have a very hard time explaining just how stupid this is. Some points are:

  • Even with his insanely close 2% limit, I can fulfill the feat immediately, using average price for a 135k USD buy on the order book of Mt. Gox! If the person would care for peak price (why care?) then it takes a moment longer, boo-hoo. The exercise is trivial, everyone can do it -- unless the order book is too shallow, but then Pirateat will have the identical problem buying back.
  • Why care about a short-term relative movement? His investors are supposedly moving very large sums, the whole type of problem is irrelevant to these people since their large movements will affect mid-term price anyway. Pirateat40 himself should notice that when buying back.
  • 2% per trade? This constraint is tiny against the weekly returns to investors. Remember that these percentages do not compare to weekly returns, it's the percentage for an individual trade. His volume is roughly frequency of trades times something on the order of Pirateat40's deposits. The frequency required to require such tight limits would mean that Pirateat40 sells so many Bitcoins, the price would have to be blown into the heavens by him buying back.
  • His time limits are super long! Anyone trading BTCUSD should know that most of the volume only changes a small fraction of the order book, as it refills to dampen movements. This has been especially strong in the last months. Three days is plenty, especially after I've shown it can be done in roughly a second using the order book at the time.

What does this mean?

  • Pirateat40 pretty much implied he is trading BTCUSD with his "investors'" money in large volumes.
  • He has not the faintest clue what he is talking about. There is no way he can safely operate such sums. He didn't even correct his mistake, even after it was pointed out twice!
  • This is not a mistake due to sloppiness. Traders must be hardcore-trained to double-check their estimates, or else they do way too many mistakes. Any educated trader should be able to confirm that this guy is incompetent.


Now go and talk to a BTCUSD trader of your choice, so he can confirm without second thoughts that Pirateat40 is a scammer and Ponzi scheme operator, and this is the mistake that ends it.

Basically, I'm asking the mods to find a competent BTCUSD trader, do some talk of the kind and then remove Pirateat40, all his pass-throughs, and all the other crap he has been shitting onto the Bitcointalk.org forums. If that is not possible, I expect that in due time people will use their heads, the bonds will crash and the Ponzi end. Either way, I really can't think of any way to talk or flame out of this one.

Edit: I expect flame- and derailing-attacks on this, so I may have to edit points into this post.

We can now measure the IQ of the Bitcoin forum with the speed at which the bonds crash.
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SkRRJyTC
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July 05, 2012, 12:08:47 AM
 #2

Is he trading with investor funds or running or ponzi scheme?  They are two different things yes?  Are you saying he is doing both?
Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 12:17:10 AM
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Is he trading with investor funds or running or ponzi scheme?  They are two different things yes?  Are you saying he is doing both?

If HE traded with investor funds, he won't get them back for you. If he really was so stupid as to do that, he is forced to wish for luck in the Bitcoin price.

But Pirateat40 is not stupid. He just sucks at a trader, because he used all his training for running Ponzi schemes. For all I can tell, he is perfectly educated on that, and follows every single rule of running a professional Ponzi.
Vladimir
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July 05, 2012, 12:27:50 AM
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Is he trading with investor funds or running or ponzi scheme?  They are two different things yes?  Are you saying he is doing both?

Trading with investor funds with >3000% annualised ROI. You must be kidding me. This is simply impossible.


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rjk
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July 05, 2012, 01:09:07 AM
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Is he trading with investor funds or running or ponzi scheme?  They are two different things yes?  Are you saying he is doing both?

If HE traded with investor funds, he won't get them back for you. If he really was so stupid as to do that, he is forced to wish for luck in the Bitcoin price.

But Pirateat40 is not stupid. He just sucks at a trader, because he used all his training for running Ponzi schemes. For all I can tell, he is perfectly educated on that, and follows every single rule of running a professional Ponzi.
The problem is, IF you turn out to be wrong, there is no possible way that any crow-eating of any kind will sort out the wrongs that you have said, as well as the libel and defamation that you have been engaging in for the past while.

I demand that you put up a bond for your words, that will be lost in default in favor of Pirate et al IF you turn out to be wrong.
If you are right, you can keep the bond.

Does anyone else wish to weigh in on the terms and conditions of this bond?

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 01:12:53 AM
 #6

The problem is, IF you turn out to be wrong, there is no possible way that any crow-eating of any kind will sort out the wrongs that you have said, as well as the libel and defamation that you have been engaging in for the past while.

I demand that you put up a bond for your words, that will be lost in default in favor of Pirate et al IF you turn out to be wrong.
If you are right, you can keep the bond.

Does anyone else wish to weigh in on the terms and conditions of this bond?

This is heaven. I love you. Whose money can I take? How much BTC pay-back security do I have to sign with?

This is gonna be awesome. You're paying me for white-knighting. Grin
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July 05, 2012, 01:13:42 AM
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The problem is, IF you turn out to be wrong, there is no possible way that any crow-eating of any kind will sort out the wrongs that you have said, as well as the libel and defamation that you have been engaging in for the past while.

I demand that you put up a bond for your words, that will be lost in default in favor of Pirate et al IF you turn out to be wrong.
If you are right, you can keep the bond.

Does anyone else wish to weigh in on the terms and conditions of this bond?

This is heaven. I love you. Whose money can I take? How much BTC pay-back security do I have to sign with?

This is gonna be awesome. You're paying me for white-knighting. Grin
I'm not asking you to take anyone's money, I am asking that you put up YOUR OWN money.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
humanitee
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July 05, 2012, 01:16:15 AM
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LOL rjk, wow.

It's not libel or defamation if your business model makes zero sense. Pirate never clarifies anything. It comes with the territory of not releasing any information about his operations.
Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 01:17:37 AM
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I'm not asking you to take anyone's money, I am asking that you put up YOUR OWN money.

Of course I'll put up! This is a bet, one which I will win. We need a trusted third party, of course, in the case I am a scammer. Roll Eyes

I'm totally aware of what you are offering and I mean exactly that by heaven, because this is a bet with the best odds ever.
rjk
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July 05, 2012, 01:19:06 AM
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LOL rjk, wow.

It's not libel or defamation if your business model makes zero sense. Pirate never clarifies anything. It comes with the territory of not releasing any information about his operations.
You haven't been reading all the ad hominim words that have been spewed against him and others recently, it seems.

To be clear, I do not currently use or support Pirate's operations in any way shape or form, but the shit I have been seeing recently is painful to watch, and completely unnecessary.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
humanitee
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July 05, 2012, 01:24:15 AM
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I agree, everyone needs to calm down. Rolo is another thread calling people mouth breathers.

I still don't think it's libel, since we know 0 about what he does. I don't think we need infinity+1 threads on this stupid topic either.
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July 05, 2012, 01:24:33 AM
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I'm not asking you to take anyone's money, I am asking that you put up YOUR OWN money.

Of course I'll put up! Just wanted to put to display that I am immediately in on this. We need a trusted third party, of course, in the case I am a scammer. Roll Eyes

I'm totally aware of what you are offering and I mean exactly that by heaven, because this is a bet with the best odds ever.
The main problem I guess is that we don't know how long Pirate plans to continue operation, so it makes it a bit more complicated. Sorry I may have posted in haste when I put that out there, but if someone wants to manage it, please weigh in here. I don't want to nominate a third party because I don't want to saddle them with some excess responsibility.

However, I suggest that the bond be split and denominated in USD and BTC, and be held somehow in cold storage for some period of time. There are some bets on Betsofbitco.in, but I'm not sure if they would serve the purpose well enough. I'll be back after some eats to see what everyone has thought up.

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Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 01:30:17 AM
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It's pretty simple... "BS&T will be known as a scam until *some time limit*."

Most people only offer ridiculously short time-limits. Put one well into next year, and you're far beyond any expected Ponzi run-time. I can't yet tell how much I can put up exactly, but I sure as hell want to put up some money to this!

(What's the point with the USD hedge, this is the Bitcoin forum. Let's just bet in Bitcoins, it's not like they go bad like fiat.)

This reminds me, the odds on betsofbitco.in were pro-Pirate. Brb, changing that.
jamesg
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July 05, 2012, 01:30:23 AM
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There is a viable option to put your money where you mouth is:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433
humanitee
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July 05, 2012, 01:31:38 AM
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It's pretty simple... "BS&T will be known as a scam until *some time limit*."

Most people only offer ridiculously short time-limits. Put one well into next year, and you're far beyond any expected Ponzi run-time. I can't yet tell how much I can put up exactly, but I sure as hell want to put up some money to this!

(What's the point with the USD hedge, this is the Bitcoin forum. Let's just bet in Bitcoins, it's not like they go bad like fiat.)

This reminds me, the odds on betsofbitco.in were pro-Pirate. Brb, changing that.

There is a viable option to put your money where you mouth is:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

"The assertion is that Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default on payments on or before December 31. 2012. "
Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 01:35:10 AM
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There is a viable option to put your money where you mouth is:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

What, look at the odds of that thing! Tongue

jk, that was me just now. I don't know whether I want to trust the site with more than 250 BTC, it's some anonymous whatever. But odds are quite green for now.

In fact, my total bets on the topic are already four-digit BTC. I'm fucking certain, and I mean it.
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July 05, 2012, 01:39:47 AM
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There is a viable option to put your money where you mouth is:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

What, look at the odds of that thing! Tongue

jk, that was me just now. I don't know whether I want to trust the site with more than 250 BTC, it's some anonymous whatever. But odds are quite green for now.
Well I was trying to avoid betsofbitcoin, because I was thinking in sums of perhaps 5k BTC and a similar amount of USD as some kind of hedge or something, to be paid to pirate himself (not counter-gamblers) in case of continued solvency.

But coming to think of it, I really don't care about that, I was just hoping there would be a bit of sting in it in case of continued solvency and operation (not that I expect either). However, I would be satisfied by just a general toning down of your posts, and a reduction of the bile and vitrol content of them as well.

The same goes for others, as well!

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Vandroiy
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July 05, 2012, 01:46:12 AM
 #18

rjk, I firmly believe that this guy is a scammer! Are you seriously saying that I should shut up and let him steal everyone's money?

Also, betting with someone about when he himself will choose to default? Bad idea in general, though it can work on Ponzis with reasonable boundary conditions.

I can do four-digit BTC, against you, right here. We need to get some mod we both respect to hold the funds, and that's that. Betting on this does not scare me at all, I'm not just trolling for the heck of it. On the contrary, this is exactly what I want.

Give me financial instruments to go against these types of operations, and I will crush them with precision every time and make a killing off it. The only thing is that time-scales must be conservative now because it is public, and thus Pirateat40 can just play as some other account.
pirateat40
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July 05, 2012, 01:53:03 AM
 #19

@Vandroiy

If you don't understand the very simple challenge I gave you and what 2% means to a transaction I do, there is simply no hope that you will every understand anything I say.

I truly gave you more "smarts" credit than you deserved. Sad

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July 05, 2012, 01:53:52 AM
 #20

Maybe Pirate can share with Theymos exactly what he does if Theymos agrees to an NDA.

Then he can say whether its illegal or shady and decide if the forum and by extension Mt Gox could be held to blame.

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