History repeates 2011 right now?

[v0yager]

Just let's forget the past,dude,2015 would be the key year of the Bitcoin,success or failure.

Even we have a lot of money coming into Bitcoin in 2014, but the basic situation is not change:not much people are using Bitcoin, in 2015 the community should try to make more people get involved.

[Melbustus]

The 2011 bubble ended with a Mt. Gox hack which brought bitcoin down to 2$.
Now, Bitstamp got hacked after a long bear market following the last bubble.

If 2011 bottom formed from 35$ to 2$ to 230$ and the history really is more or less repeating itself then
2014 bottom would be 1200$ to 250$ to 28750$ (assuming 250$ was the bottom this time).  

Considering that the Winglewii EDF impending upon us, 5 digits seem realistic. If I remember correctly someone predicted 40k $ per BTC a fair price in the world where EDG has manifested.

The Gox hack was at about $17 and had 5 more months of decline after that. So if we extrapolate that to now, then we have about 3 more years of bear market

Good point, that would mean 35$ is the bottom that is yet to come

edit:
but we must also consider the number of coins stolen. 18k vs how many were stolen from gox 2011?

Gox lost about BTC2k in the 2011 hack, well according to Mark Karpeles that is

I'm very curious if the Gox investigations are going to reveal that their insolvency has something to do with the 2011 hack. I think one possibility that people are overlooking is that perhaps the attacker snagged a whole bunch of code off Gox's servers, and then analyzed it later and found exploitable bugs that allowed the attacker(s) to subsequently bleed Gox over time.

[Xiaoxiao]

I think bitstamp beates mtgox.  Mtgox were cheates.  Bitstamp juste seemed to get unlucky in this recente hack. Either thate or they were juste really incompetente, which I don'te think they were. Guess ite is a new lesson learned

[tvbcof]

The Gox hack was at about $17 and had 5 more months of decline after that. So if we extrapolate that to now, then we have about 3 more years of bear market

Bitcoinica collapse was down near $2 wasn't it ?

It was after the bottom. I want to say February or March 2012

Which got hacked first, Bitcoinica or Mt Gox?

I don't think any real big thing happened until after the $30-ish 2011 peak.  I was around at about the time MtGox was down and the price was in the $20-ish range IIRC.  It wasn't a hack per se in that they didn't lose money, but it was quite a shake-up.  Probably in part because a lot of people were on pins and needles having lost a chunk of their wealth.  And, of course, Bitcoin had much less time on the clock basic security was questioned a lot more.

Not long after that the mybitcoin wallet scam happened.  It was the first of many such heists to come, and it was big.  Someone (who was very competent) managed to lose his private keys for 25k BTC and someone stealing about that many off someone else's windows box (supposedly) also were happenings in that timeframe.

The termination of Tradehill happened near the bottom and in marked the end of my career as a buyer.  Tradehill made me, at least, whole and I think most people, but there were/are people who claim otherwise.

I think Bitcoinica imploded after the trough because I decided to try to lose the few BTC I had there.  I doubled down twice with high leverage and ended up with a not completely trivial amount of BTC which I gave to goat to have a party for orphans in Thailand me being done with Bitcoinica, having made the money through total luck and zero skill, and having no easy way to get USD (and thinking it would be cool for the kids to have a party.)  Not long after that Bitcoinica folded.  That must have been in the early part of 2012.

The only other thing I remember about Gox prior to the slow motion lockup is that Mark fat-fingered some code and launched a weeks worth of profits into never-never land.  That must have been in mid 2012 sometime.  There is a (very long) list maintained somewhere on this board enumerating at least a fraction of the scams and losses that have occurred.

[Melbustus]

...

Which got hacked first, Bitcoinica or Mt Gox?

I don't think any real big thing happened until after the $30-ish 2011 peak.  I was around at about the time MtGox was down and the price was in the $20-ish range IIRC.  It wasn't a hack per se in that they didn't lose money, but it was quite a shake-up. 

Well, unauthorized access to their servers, enough to allow the fraudulent market-sell of hundreds of thousands (I think) of coins, dropping the exchange price to a penny. I'm fine calling that a hack. It was crazy watching the price action in real-time. Incidentally, the price subsequently recovering to the $14-17 range, gave me enough confidence in the Bitcoin community/ecosystem to jump in. Note that Tim Draper has said the same thing, but regarding the Feb 2014 Goxing. Funny how Gox mints a few very strong "believers" in this manner...

...  And, of course, Bitcoin had much less time on the clock basic security was questioned a lot more.

+1

Not long after that the mybitcoin wallet scam happened.  It was the first of many such heists to come, and it was big. 

Yeah. Lots of that stuff then. It was an ugly time.

Someone (who was very competent) managed to lose his private keys for 25k BTC and someone stealing about that many off someone else's windows box (supposedly) also were happenings in that timeframe.

One of those someones = "allinvain": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=198

The termination of Tradehill happened near the bottom and in marked the end of my career as a buyer.  Tradehill made me, at least, whole and I think most people, but there were/are people who claim otherwise.

Likewise. Jared sent me both bitcoins, and a check for the $100 or so in fiat I had on Tradehill. At least with me, he was a class-act throughout Tradehill's termination (which was due to the Linode hack, if memory serves...).

[tvbcof]

I don't think any real big thing happened until after the $30-ish 2011 peak.  I was around at about the time MtGox was down and the price was in the $20-ish range IIRC.  It wasn't a hack per se in that they didn't lose money, but it was quite a shake-up. 

Well, unauthorized access to their servers, enough to allow the fraudulent market-sell of hundreds of thousands (I think) of coins, dropping the exchange price to a penny. I'm fine calling that a hack. It was crazy watching the price action in real-time. Incidentally, the price subsequently recovering to the $14-17 range, gave me enough confidence in the Bitcoin community/ecosystem to jump in. Note that Tim Draper has said the same thing, but regarding the Feb 2014 Goxing. Funny how Gox mints a few very strong "believers" in this manner...

IIRC, he lost the database password to a contractor.  The fact that even with this the guy was not able to figure out how to end up with BTC (if that was his goal) was at least a glass-half-full in security design I thought at the time.

Unfortunately it made a big-ish impression on me that rather than using the event as an excuse to pack up shop a relatively wealthy guy, Mt. Gox carried on.  I still mis-trusted them but eventually more-or-less changed my mind.  Particularly after the struggles with Coinlab.  I did become a customer of theirs to try to get some money out, and eventually did take the plunge and relinquished my ID docs.  Until fairly near the end I did not really think Mark was a straight-up crook due to 2011 performance.  Even so, I was suspicious of their operations so drained my account of BTC and split my options for USD between them and bitcoin-brokers.  The latter performed flawlessly while Mark to this day owes me a $5k wire.

Likewise. Jared sent me both bitcoins, and a check for the $100 or so in fiat I had on Tradehill. At least with me, he was a class-act throughout Tradehill's termination (which was due to the Linode hack, if memory serves...).

I don't recall anything about Linode, or really about any system problems.  From what I can deduce they had their systems stuff and accounting fairly well in order.  Especially for the standards of that time.  My impression was that they were simply forced out of business by the banks and regulators, but I don't have any inside info.  Tradehill made me whole for notably more than your figures.  In my encounters with Jared I'd agree with the characterization as 'a class-act.'

[Hyena]

it's foolish to gauge bitcoin prices on historic recurrence as what makes history repeat are the human factors which are predictable and repetitive such as speculative activity, greed and etc.

...

i can only think of a few things at the moment but i can assure you, times have changed a lot lately and for history to repeat for bitcoin something unusual and on a big scale has to happen.
 

I think it's foolish of you to say that it's foolish to see that history is more or less repeating its patterns in any sector of life. We as humans are lazy and prone to falling into autopilot mode. Every day we do the same things the same way. You wake up at 9, drink coffee and go to work. Change yourself and you will change your environment. Stop drinking coffee at nine and you will be amazed by the changes in your life it induces. If only you had enough personal power to really notice the correlation.

You can't argue the fact that in 2011 Bitcoin came slowly and painfully down from its ATH to its bottom and to make matters worse, exchanges got hacked, people got scammed.

You also cannot argue the fact that in 2014 Bitcoin has been coming slowly and painfully down from its ATH and to make matters worse, Bitstamp got hacked.

So there clearly is a pattern but at the current stage it remains unclear whether the bottom is in or not and what the next catalyst for bitcoin price surge/drop would be. My personal belief is that in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket and this will happen concurrently with the crash of some conventional markets.

Ironically, even though we can see clear similarities, we still don't know what happens next. It's foolish to assume that the repetition will be precise and if that's what you wanted to say then I agree with you. By the first law of the universe --- the law of conservation of irony --- I would say that we should expect the unexpected.

Since everyone's attention is fixed on the price of Bitcoin and people have different expectations for it, it could happen that nothing really happens to BTC this year. Instead, another coin could rise from the shadows and experience a major appreciation of its value. I have one candidate: Nubits. It's essentially the only cryptocurrency out there that has a steady market cap. We all know that when BTC goes up, all the altcoins also go up, and when BTC goes down, all the altcoins go down. All the altcoins except Nubits. Perhaps people have had enough of the volatility that comes with cryptocurrencies? If that's the case, I predict future so bright for Nubits that we gotta wear shades.

[freedomno1]

The 2011 bubble ended with a Mt. Gox hack which brought bitcoin down to 2$.
Now, Bitstamp got hacked after a long bear market following the last bubble.

If 2011 bottom formed from 35$ to 2$ to 230$ and the history really is more or less repeating itself then
2014 bottom would be 1200$ to 250$ to 28750$ (assuming 250$ was the bottom this time). 

Considering that the Winglewii EDF impending upon us, 5 digits seem realistic. If I remember correctly someone predicted 40k $ per BTC a fair price in the world where EDG has manifested.

Crazier things have happened in Bitcoin if we do look at this as a rebirth of the 2011 pattern then we are nearing a sad dark point of despair
Where we go from there is unknown but considering the winkelveli ETF it may move a lot

[Hyena]

The 2011 bubble ended with a Mt. Gox hack which brought bitcoin down to 2$.
Now, Bitstamp got hacked after a long bear market following the last bubble.

If 2011 bottom formed from 35$ to 2$ to 230$ and the history really is more or less repeating itself then
2014 bottom would be 1200$ to 250$ to 28750$ (assuming 250$ was the bottom this time). 

Considering that the Winglewii EDF impending upon us, 5 digits seem realistic. If I remember correctly someone predicted 40k $ per BTC a fair price in the world where EDG has manifested.

Crazier things have happened in Bitcoin if we do look at this as a rebirth of the 2011 pattern then we are nearing a sad dark point of despair
Where we go from there is unknown but considering the winkelveli ETF it may move a lot

True, it could happen that we soon get a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT that Wonkawii EFT just got approved and a countdown appears on their website. Speculators go crazy as they went crazy on AuroraCoin countdown, NuBits countdown and PayCoin's promises. They rush to buy in, bringing the price of bitcoin to new ATH just before the countdown reaches zero. Then some insider whale gets info that EFT got hacked/raided by FBI or what not and starts selling, crashing BTC down to square one. Or the price consolidates at 40 000$ per BTC.

[eboard10]

Correlation doesn't mean causation but it's interesting that the Bitstamp hack occured as we are nearing a bottom.

While I don't expect another rally similar to the one that started in 2011 anytime soon, we will likely have a more contained spike later this year, say 10-15x which is still a lot at these prices.

I think we will have to wait at least another couple of years before another such rally in % terms.

[Hyena]

Correlation doesn't mean causation but it's interesting that the Bitstamp hack occured as we are nearing a bottom.

While I don't expect another rally similar to the one that started in 2011 anytime soon, we will likely have a more contained spike later this year, say 10-15x which is still a lot at these prices.

I think we will have to wait at least another couple of years before another such rally in % terms.

Just wait a couple of months instead of a couple of years. A lot of development was put into Bitcoin ecosystem in 2014. Soon those companies are starting to make big announcements.

[Q7]

I hope that is the case, if it is true will certainly bring bitcoin to the next level. I will wait for couple of months though to see whether there is a correlation.

[xDan]

Each order of magnitude price increase requires order of magnitude more buyers, right?

What reasons are there to believe there are that many more?

[SmoothCurves]

Each order of magnitude price increase requires order of magnitude more buyers, right?

What reasons are there to believe there are that many more?

It's not the number of buyers. It's How MUCH buying power they have.

Next wave will be financial institutions and private corporations. See: http://www.coindesk.com/wedbush-investment-buttercoin/ for example. (I also have friends at Goldman Sachs and other institutions and they are all taking Bitcoin seriously - even training their private equity managers on it)

The next order magnitude after that will be governments: See: http://monetas.net/why-central-banks-will-race-to-adopt-the-blockchain/ as to why.

[jjacob]

Each order of magnitude price increase requires order of magnitude more buyers, right?

What reasons are there to believe there are that many more?

It's not the number of buyers. It's How MUCH buying power they have.

Next wave will be financial institutions and private corporations. See: http://www.coindesk.com/wedbush-investment-buttercoin/ for example. (I also have friends at Goldman Sachs and other institutions and they are all taking Bitcoin seriously - even training their private equity managers on it)

The next order magnitude after that will be governments: See: http://monetas.net/why-central-banks-will-race-to-adopt-the-blockchain/ as to why.

Even if one government gives legitimacy to Bitcoin in terms of payments made to the government, it will be a huge boost for Bitcoin.
Imagine how easy cross country trade would become.

[Afrikoin]

The 2011 bubble ended with a Mt. Gox hack which brought bitcoin down to 2$.
Now, Bitstamp got hacked after a long bear market following the last bubble.

If 2011 bottom formed from 35$ to 2$ to 230$ and the history really is more or less repeating itself then
2014 bottom would be 1200$ to 250$ to 28750$ (assuming 250$ was the bottom this time). 

Considering that the Winglewii EDF impending upon us, 5 digits seem realistic. If I remember correctly someone predicted 40k $ per BTC a fair price in the world where EDG has manifested.

You cannot make sense of random events - so don't bother. Just trade what is in front of you.

[BitCoinNutJob]

The 2011 bubble ended with a Mt. Gox hack which brought bitcoin down to 2$.
Now, Bitstamp got hacked after a long bear market following the last bubble.

If 2011 bottom formed from 35$ to 2$ to 230$ and the history really is more or less repeating itself then
2014 bottom would be 1200$ to 250$ to 28750$ (assuming 250$ was the bottom this time). 

Considering that the Winglewii EDF impending upon us, 5 digits seem realistic. If I remember correctly someone predicted 40k $ per BTC a fair price in the world where EDG has manifested.

This is what im thinking will happen, last time is was a 2 bubble move which i can see happening just like last time.  The holders now will be so pleased to get $1k+ a coin they will dump early.