Bitcoin could face another bear market in 2015

[innocent93]

This is a few viewpoints from Chinese financial commentator Xiao Lei,not mine, I did the translation and post here.

Bitcoin would suffer from heavier short pressure in 2015,the reason is, A,the US dollar rallies ,people are willing to buy dollar; B,less new investors, investors from China(or other countries) are more concerned with rising stock market. In addition, with the introduction of lever futures ,Bitcoin could suffer from another bear market in 2015.

In 2015,There seemed no "Big Event" like Wrold Cup that could stimulate demand of Bitcoin and the rest is Bitcoin Group Listing,the group is planned to go public on December 1st 2014 but failed for various reasons.

More(if you read Chinese ) : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=918531.0

[tokeweed]

it is already a bear market.  but yes, it could go down some more.

[bounst]

quite agree, even if it proves such sceptics wrong, it will have a rock bottom on its hands.

[Vessko]

When a stock market bubble crashes, a run-of-the mill bear market tends to last 3 years. In extreme cases, it can last a couple of decades. However, Bitcoin trades more like a commodity and there the crashes tend to be shorter and more violent.

[Flashman]

Bitcoin seems to have quite a compressed timescale compared to other things traded, like 1 month in bitcoin is 6 months of anything else. Therefore hopefully even what would be a 5 year bear market will be over this year.

[Q7]

It's not absolute but despite what I have come across and read thus far, my outlook on bitcoin still remains positive. Nobody is going to dump bitcoin. If all the miners decided to stop, there will still be people willing to contribute hashrate. Price when low will encourage more people to take notice and buy bitcoin.

[fendlestick]

Price when low will encourage more people to take notice and buy bitcoin.

I would agree with the last part, massive high prices are a barrier to entry for something alot of people don't fully understand, when you talk about Bitcoin it's much easier to get people interested if they can get a few coins for a few hundred dollars rather than 1 coin for $1000, and much less risky to get your feet wet.

[reRaise]

2015 and beyond is the year of crypto 2.0 on top of bitcoin making bitcoin superior

[ChuckBuck]

Bitcoin isn't facing another bear market.  WE IN IT NOW!   



Bears running wild for the last year, year and half or so.  2014 only went in one direction.  Down.

If anything we need a turn around to a Bull market in 2015.

[Aemon]

Why does everyone speculate what we don't know?  I swear half the community says Bitcoin is crashing and the other half say its rising.  How do I know who to believe, should I just go on my gut and either buy or sell?

[SmoothCurves]

Bear market will last till April 2015 according to DanV.

[ChuckBuck]

Why does everyone speculate what we don't know?  I swear half the community says Bitcoin is crashing and the other half say its rising.  How do I know who to believe, should I just go on my gut and either buy or sell?

Do your own research and yes go with your own instinct when it comes to speculating or trading.

If you're in it for the long term HODLING, then now's a good a time as any to buy:

[Flashman]

Why does everyone speculate what we don't know?  I swear half the community says Bitcoin is crashing and the other half say its rising.  How do I know who to believe, should I just go on my gut and either buy or sell?

Nah, then you'll just blame yourself, stick it in some exchange with high chance of failure so you've got a scapegoat

Subjectively, it appears the multiyear trend would have us at $1000 by now, and we've had a taste of it, so prospective long term buy. Money you expect to have back in your hand within a few weeks or months, or the "computer upgrade fund" that you're waiting for March releases to decide how to spend, flip a coin.

My gut says, we've found the most bottomy bottom for a while. My gut also says, don't expect much upside action with the Chinese all off on annual holiday. And thirdly it's saying that average investors/enthusiasts won't have much spare fiat until tax returns are in.


Edit: Oh, another thing, true mass adoption, we're not at that tipping point yet. We are on the very shallow slope of the adoption S curve, when we get to the inflection, it's the express elevator, very, very strong uptrend, the like of which we have not seen, there may be no reversals to catch breath and get back in if you sold early. I am unsure what metric is the best proxy for knowing how close we are to this, but suspect we'll get another kink in this... https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= and hit an order of magnitude boundary on those before we get lift off. I'm suspecting about 20 million or so is when it's "beginning" to happen. Who can tell though, there may be far more attractive "n00b" wallets that we do not have adoption figures for come into play.

Anyway, that's just to say, screw around all you want to right now, get in and out in days or hours, play the signals, FUD for cheap coins, whatever your thing is, but be 100% in BTC when that express elevator departs and don't get off at any floor on the way.

[arbitrage001]

Quite bullish at this point as the cost of production has been way below market price for a long time.

[dmugetsu]

Wait for it

i'm in long term hold

[LiteCoinGuy]

it could, could also face a bull market.  "nobody knows" that is the only true answer  

[Aemon]

Thanks for the information flashman.  I am just going to keep holding what I guy and hold off on the buying for now as well.  Hopefully I will make a decision correct this way as I am sort of having the best of both worlds:0