If you are waiting for the "despair phase" to buy like in 2011 consider this

[JimboToronto]

...My consortium...

[dropt]

They seem pretty relaxed actually, unlike most of you that suddenly lose their temper (like you just did) because they read things they don't want to read.

You're obviously not very familiar with our friend D. Chow.

[dropt]

Don't confuse riiiiising with riiiising.

Riiiising was an intelligent poster with a sense of humor.

Riiiiising is indeed an idiot.

Holy shit, you're right.  I fell into the trap! 

[Bit_Happy]

Later this year, people will see this thread and smile, remembering what it felt like near the bottom.   

[tabnloz]

That's basically the point. Don't take risks on highly speculative investments like bitcoin, especially now that all the air has been sucked out of it and it's falling steadily toward obscurity. If you had simply invested in the stock market last year, in basic index accounts, you'd have realized gains of well over 10%. Like Warren Buffett said, bitcoin is a mirage. Make wise choices, not get rich quick hail marys.

It isn't headed for obscurity at all, as referenced by media coverage, VC investment and comp science breakthrough.

But yes, it is not as strong as:

the bull that is the USD - (see commodities and currencies declining v dollar)

the Fed, ECB , BoE - policies that have ramped the stock / RE markets. There are hundreds of billion / trillion dollar emerging markets that cant fight that shit.


With the risk profile of bitcoin there is currently more incentive (but less possible speculative returns) to get on the Fed train than jump into bitcoin in a major way, barring some black swan. Pro traders OTOH are having a field day in the kiddie pool.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Because they are fat, angry, self esteem-less losers with too much time on their hands.

Post your address...I'll come play with your butthole. Don't worry, I won't be nice about it. Maybe even "lose my temper' mid thrust...

Hopefully I'm rinsing NotHatinJustTrollin's poop off my cock by then.

Sorry grampa, I used the expression "lost your temper", should have used "mad and butthurt"  


For all you know yes, maybe the beartrolls are "Facebook generation" little kids. But in that case the joke's on you. they are watching you get mad at them while you lose money by the minute  

Later this year, people will see this thread and smile, remembering what it felt like near the bottom.  

You and the other polite gentleman didn't quite get the point of the thread, but it's ok!

See you next year, when the glorious bull market will have finally returned!

[sgbett]

bitcoin will succeed for these reasons:

world governments neck deep in debt, defaults will come soon
VC investing millions into bitcoin ecosystem
new credit card hacks against major retailers every week
other, smarter retailers, already accepting bitcoin
anyone with college degree will be investing by next year when it becomes clear bitcoin is future

the rock ship to the moon is being fueld, are you ready to get on board or will you wait behind to watch the moon walk from the TV?

do not sell your bitcoin on any false drops. bitcoin is going nowhere but up!

[freequant]

I guess Tulips had utility or functional value in society right?

oh wait....  lol

I guess Tulips were becoming increasingly obsolete and on the verge of being replaced by superior bio-engineered varieties l right?

oh wait....  lol

[MataKhobRazi]

Actually tulips did have something of a supply constraint, because it would take 7 to 12 years to cultivate a flowering bulb from a seed. So no, tulips could not be spontaneously created as some of you seem to believe. People were willing to spend a lot on them because they were rare and rapidly increasing in value. Why else do you think they would have spent a fortune on them?? Simply because they were pretty??   They expected a return on their investment.

You know.. exactly like bitcoiners. You can deny it all you want, but they're essentially thr same thing.

No they're not essentially the same thing. Bitcoin is something that we can use as a modern monetary system that will ease the national trade as well as the international trade. Once the applications are developped enough, consumers and merchants can only be seduced by this technology.

Try now to create a modern monetary system with tulips that would be able to compete with bitcoin advantages... Good luck.

[NotLambchop]

...
Post your address...I'll come play with your butthole. Don't worry, I won't be nice about it. Maybe even "lose my temper' mid thrust...

Still trying to pick up guys on the internet while losing money?
Carry on

[riiiiising]

Actually tulips did have something of a supply constraint, because it would take 7 to 12 years to cultivate a flowering bulb from a seed. So no, tulips could not be spontaneously created as some of you seem to believe. People were willing to spend a lot on them because they were rare and rapidly increasing in value. Why else do you think they would have spent a fortune on them?? Simply because they were pretty??   They expected a return on their investment.

You know.. exactly like bitcoiners. You can deny it all you want, but they're essentially thr same thing.

No they're not essentially the same thing. Bitcoin is something that we can use as a modern monetary system that will ease the national trade as well as the international trade. Once the applications are developped enough, consumers and merchants can only be seduced by this technology.

Try now to create a modern monetary system with tulips that would be able to compete with bitcoin advantages... Good luck.

People in the 17th century bought tulips because they were rare and rapidly rising in value. Their goal was to ride it up and sell them to a greater fool, just as bitcoiners are doing now. You just don't want to face that. "This time it's different."™

You can claim that bitcoin will usher in a new age of international trade, but this does not appear to be happening and I highly doubt governments and corporations are dumb enough to transact with a digital currency that is so volatile with absolutely no regulation. If a major bitcoin exchange can't even keep their coins safe, how do you expect Sony or any other company?

"John in IT forgot to put those coins back into the cold wallet. Oops, guess all the company's money is gone."

...Not to mention the risk of insider attacks.

[twiifm]

For all you know yes, maybe the beartrolls are "Facebook generation" little kids. But in that case the joke's on you. they are watching you get mad at them while you lose money by the minute  

The problem is, I'm not mad. I just wish these trolls were funnier...or actually clever.

Come on guys, say something funny. No, describing a person as the cliche "butthurt" isn't funny. BE MORE CREATIVE. How many times have you retards said "butthurt"? Jesus...

I mean, rinsing your shit off my cock? NOW THAT'S COMEDY!

Grampa? I'm 30.

But I have a sneaking suspicion that they started cutting the balls off of newborn males after the year 1990. The whole generation is so goddamn sensitive, my god.

No, what's funny is you constantly losing money

[jaredboice]

Quick!  Dump all your coins!  Bitcoin is only up 9 Million Percent since 5 years ago  

#bitcoin #pizza

[poncho32]

Quick!  Dump all your coins!  Bitcoin is only up 9 Million Percent since 5 years ago  

#bitcoin #pizza

A 5 year chart showing bitcoin's price in pizzas might stop people despairing.

[jaredboice]

First transaction ever was a Pizza for 10,000 BTC.  If we assume it was $20 then Bitcoin has appreciated 9 Million Percent on any price over about $180

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

First transaction ever was a Pizza for 10,000 BTC.  If we assume it was $20 then Bitcoin has appreciated 9 Million Percent on any price over about $180

So if it crashes to $1 it's still a win right?
Please, go on.



Also, the chart you posted is the same I posted, only in log scale. Same thing. Sorry but I don't have a tulip bubble log scale for the comparison. And frankly, it doesn't even matter.

[toknormal]

Also, the chart you posted is the same I posted, only in log scale. Same thing. Sorry but I don't have a tulip bubble log scale for the comparison. And frankly, it doesn't even matter.

Actually, "frankly", it does matter - quite a lot because the log scale is concerned with correctly representing proportional changes which the linear scale does not.

The reason you are so dismissive of is it because it doesn't happen to suit your little tirade in trying to convince people that they are wasting their time with Bitcoin. Despite that, the log scale is wholly appropriate when making an appraisal of the long term growth of an asset as opposed to short term trading of that asset.

What the analysis posted by poncho shows is that this year's trend is nothing like as alarming as you've been desperately trying to paint it. That applies in particular when you take three things into account:

[1] - the overbought condition in December 2013 given the state of the infrastructure development at the time. This was driven largely by the month long panic buy in China

[2] - the massive amount of VC capital and infrastructure development that's gone on in 2014 which is all "uphill work" that won't start to bear fruit till later this year. While that's all going on, most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative - both the rises AND the falls. They don't remotely represent an actual reduction in adoption, technology development, service evolution, security consolidation or any other real world aspects on which a classic commercial valuation would be based

[3] - that this year's drop in valuation represents the cost of a "rights of passage" phase. Bitcoin has been chewed up by the media, kicked in the groins by MtGox, goaded by rumour such as the 'malliability episode', taken a hammering in the markets and yet come out of all of this without a scratch technically. The fact that it's still "alive" at all and still floating well above most of 2013's all time high is not going to go unnoticed in years to come. This year's experience gives Bitcoin massive stock value in terms of trust because no other coin has gone through this experiment and taken the hammering that Bitcoin has. They only way that could happen is if Bitcoin went to zero and we started all over again with a new 'leader'. Whatever the markets say, that still looks extremely unlikely to happen right now

So all in all, your superficial dismissal of what is a very important analytical perspective on this whole game just about sums up the depth of your commentary. I don't really know if you have a clue what your talking about or if your just trolling because your nose is out of joint but either way you're a broken record that's in need of changing.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Also, the chart you posted is the same I posted, only in log scale. Same thing. Sorry but I don't have a tulip bubble log scale for the comparison. And frankly, it doesn't even matter.

Actually, "frankly", it does matter - quite a lot because the log scale is concerned with correctly representing proportional changes which the linear scale does not.

The reason you are so dismissive of is it because it doesn't happen to suit your little tirade in trying to convince people that they are wasting their time with Bitcoin. Despite that, the log scale is wholly appropriate when making an appraisal of the long term growth of an asset as opposed to short term trading of that asset.

What the analysis posted by poncho shows is that this year's trend is nothing like as alarming as you've been desperately trying to paint it. That applies in particular when you take three things into account:

[1] - the overbought condition in December 2013 given the state of the infrastructure development at the time. This was driven largely by the month long panic buy in China

[2] - the massive amount of VC capital and infrastructure development that's gone on in 2014 which is all "uphill work" that won't start to bear fruit till later this year. While that's all going on, most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative - both the rises AND the falls. They don't remotely represent an actual reduction in adoption, technology development, service evolution, security consolidation or any other real world aspects on which a classic commercial valuation would be based

[3] - that this year's drop in valuation represents the cost of a "rights of passage" phase. Bitcoin has been chewed up by the media, kicked in the groins by MtGox, goaded by rumour such as the 'malliability episode', taken a hammering in the markets and yet come out of all of this without a scratch technically. The fact that it's still "alive" at all and still floating well above most of 2013's all time high is not going to go unnoticed in years to come. This year's experience gives Bitcoin massive stock value in terms of trust because no other coin has gone through this experiment and taken the hammering that Bitcoin has. They only way that could happen is if Bitcoin went to zero and we started all over again with a new 'leader'. Whatever the markets say, that still looks extremely unlikely to happen right now

So all in all, your superficial dismissal of what is a very important analytical perspective on this whole game just about sums up the depth of your commentary. I don't really know if you have a clue what your talking about or if your just trolling because your nose is out of joint but either way you're a broken record that's in need of changing.

When studying the anatomy of a bubble, a linear chart tells you a lot more than a log one. In the case of BTC, the "previous bubbles" like the 2011 one was done when market cap and price were RIDICULOUSLY lower and all it took to pump it was a little injection of fiat (aka, one or two deep pocket entities simply buying in).
What happened in 2011 is basically noise in the grand scheme of things.


"Massive amount" in venture capital? Less than a billion is not a massive amount, and venture capital is by definition something that can all fail miserably, like the insanely high number of bitcoin related start-ups that already failed. I am sure I don't need to show you a list of that...

"Infrastructure" in the bitcoin space is mostly smokescreen, and "adoption" is basically merchants accepting USD from a bitcoin dump through Bitpay (from people that probably ALREADY OWN BTC) and people wanting to gamble with the speculation aspect of bitcoin.



More than a year of bear market and being down more than 70% from the ATH and still being there with no signs of recovery is not a "healthy correction" in a "healthy market".
Especially considering that today a lot more people are aware of BTC (compared to 2011 when pretty much nobody was even aware of its existence, BIG DIFFERENCE).

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Also, answer to your previous post:

So maybe delusional bulls will finally see the truth and stop losing money on a shitty investment thinking that the market will finally turn around during the "despair" phase?

What's the alternative? That I want to manipulate the market in order to buy cheap coins?
Sure, whatever. I just can't wait.

These arguments are superfluous. Clearly, both points of view apply in some respect.

12 months ago, Bitcoin was overvalued as an investment but undervalued as a technology.

As an investment it lost value this year. But as a technology there isn't much disagreement - even amongst the most hardened media trolls - that it is the future and it isn't hard to see why.

Up till now it's been impossible to create a monetary token that is electronic without being reproducible. It's simply the nature of electronic media that "copy & paste" rules and that has made it a huge challenge to create any kind of token that could be considered as tradable in such a way that it could not be counterfeited. The so called "electronic money" we use on a day to day basis isn't money. it's just a counterparty held balance that changes according to the instructions of other authoritative counterparties ("banks" to me & you).

With the invention of blockchain technology, the counterparty is no longer needed in the loop. This solves two problems that "tulips" never had a hope in hell of solving:

[1] - it provides the basis for an unbacked, unlevered electronic monetary base which, given that most of the worlds markets have moved from a physical to an electronic platform over the last century, is an inevitable consequence of modern technology

[2] - in principle, it makes the counterparty system redundant (I say in 'principle' because email didn't make the post office redundant, it just created a whole new medium where the post office was non existent)

Make no mistake. A technology which solves both those problems at once is of immense value - both practical and financial. Just look at the pain and anguish that was the common currency known as the Euro. And yet a couple of decades later we have a common currency that is self managing, doesn't require agonising years of debate between states and that is not enforced on anybody yet freely available to everybody.

Whether you think Bitcoin is "IT" or not, the technology is out of the bag and here to stay. As it happens, I think Bitcoin is now far enough down the line that it isn't now going to ever go away. The current valuation is fine - it's 300% to 400% what it was 18 months ago but what most people don't see if huge amount of infrastructure development that's gone on this year which will start to bear fruit now. It may not be some huge explosion - email wasn't, it just crept up on everyone until we were all using it.

To compare Bitcoin with tulips is a bit like comparing a modern aeroplane wing with a plank of wood. Yes - in some respects the comparison holds, but the only people who cite it as being significant are those with no clue of what makes one fly and the other not.

Cryptocurrencies will fly because they solve a huge problem - one that most people don't even realise they have yet because they've lived with it for so long. It  requires the supporting infrastructure to be advanced enough for mass adoption to take place, but take place it will.

The "blockchain technology" (the concept of a distributed ledger) has potential, sure, but:

1. Being forced to adopt a currency full of limitations and problems just because of the ledger is not gonna work.
2. the bitcoin blockchain is just an example of a distributed ledger, other protocols already exists today (and will of course exist in the future) that don't have the ridiculous limitations of bitcoin the currency and the bitcoin blockchain (and I don't want to go through that again, already discussed to death).

That's pretty much it.



Example:


The internet was an amazing invention that changed the world.
The dotcom bubble was just that, a bubble.

[NotLambchop]

...
[1] - the overbought condition in December 2013 given the state of the infrastructure development at the time. This was driven largely by the month long panic buy in China

[2] - the massive amount of VC capital and infrastructure development that's gone on in 2014 which is all "uphill work" that won't start to bear fruit till later this year. While that's all going on, most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative - both the rises AND the falls. They don't remotely represent an actual reduction in adoption, technology development, service evolution, security consolidation or any other real world aspects on which a classic commercial valuation would be based

[3] - that this year's drop in valuation represents the cost of a "rights of passage" phase. Bitcoin has been chewed up by the media, kicked in the groins by MtGox, goaded by rumour such as the 'malliability episode', taken a hammering in the markets and yet come out of all of this without a scratch technically. The fact that it's still "alive" at all and still floating well above most of 2013's all time high is not going to go unnoticed in years to come. This year's experience gives Bitcoin massive stock value in terms of trust because no other coin has gone through this experiment and taken the hammering that Bitcoin has. They only way that could happen is if Bitcoin went to zero and we started all over again with a new 'leader'. Whatever the markets say, that still looks extremely unlikely to happen right now
...

[1] Don't remember hearing anything about "overbought condition" at the time the bubble was forming.  I was told Bitcoin's hyperexponential price rise was a mathematical certainty.  Irrefutably confirmed by science in universities.
But you're telling me I was duped?

[2] So "most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative"?  Now you tell me.  I was told something about great fundamentals, didn't understand any of it but it sounded very sophisticated and technical.  More bullshit, huh?

[3] Bitcoin's "rights of passage" phase?  Isn't that when a boy's buddies buy him a shit hooker and an eightball of shittier blow?
The reason  for shit press last year is because Bitcoin has attracted a lulzy menagerie of self-important attention whores, major scumbags, and petty criminals.  

Re. "superficial dismissal of what is a very important analytical perspective":  Hahahahaha