Today's crypto scene is an exact mirror image of 6 November 2013 & 10 April 2013

[Bizmark13]

It's interesting to see at what points in history did the cryptosphere (hey, did I make up a new word?) look almost exactly like today.

Looking at CMC, the price of Bitcoin is $268, Litecoin is $1.72, Namecoin is $0.52, and Peercoin is $0.40.

Looking at historical price charts, the price of Bitcoin on the 6th of November 2013 was $260, Litecoin was $3, Namecoin was $0.55, and Peercoin was just under $0.50.

Comparing today's prices with 6 November 2013, both Bitcoin and Namecoin are pretty much spot-on. Peercoin is very close. Litecoin is somewhat close although it's a bit lower than what you'd expect since LTC prices fell very sharply recently.

Links for BTC, LTC, NMC, and PPC, respectively:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/nmc/btc/btc-e/alltime (0.00225 BTC then vs. 0.001975 BTC today)
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328639

Same thing also with the 10th of April 2013. That's when Bitcoin spiked to $266. When this happened, the price of Litecoin spiked from a low of $2.25 to $5 in a single day, before dropping down to $3.20 at the end of the day. However, the price of Namecoin was about double that of today and Peercoin was trading at roughly the same price as today (but highly volatile against the BTC).

To some, this might suggest that Litecoin is currently very undervalued. Namecoin and Peercoin might be slightly undervalued too as they seem to have dropped in value in proportion to that of BTC. On the other hand, perhaps this might be explained by the migration of BTC towards newer cryptos such as Dogecoin, in which case they would not be undervalued and are simply losing market share.

[unusualfacts30]

well this time they're going downwards 

[Bizmark13]

well this time they're going downwards 

It should be interesting to see if this is the lowest the BTC price will go. After the April 2013 peak, prices never dipped to the previous ATH ($33). The lowest it went was about $70. This time it seems to be different. We've already pretty much reached the ATH of April 2013. I wonder what this means for Bitcoin. Could this be a bad sign?

[Tarantino]

To some, this might suggest that Litecoin is currently very undervalued. Namecoin and Peercoin might be slightly undervalued too as they seem to have dropped in value in proportion to that of BTC. On the other hand, perhaps this might be explained by the migration of BTC towards newer cryptos such as Dogecoin, in which case they would not be undervalued and are simply losing market share.

I think it currently is undervalued and will regain some of that when bitcoin does, but I don't think Litecoin will have much of a future unless it can get some serious merchant adoption behind it. It needs to be seen as a viable currency and not just the second best to bitcoin by default. 14BmtyT5Z7cMGcTB6sGDN9ZgUVS4NURrBB

[unusualfacts30]

well this time they're going downwards  

It should be interesting to see if this is the lowest the BTC price will go. After the April 2013 peak, prices never dipped to the previous ATH ($33). The lowest it went was about $70. This time it seems to be different. We've already pretty much reached the ATH of April 2013. I wonder what this means for Bitcoin. Could this be a bad sign?

Definitely a bad sign. Back then we didn't have these many people mining and most were buyers. Now majority are sellers and people are dumping $1.2 million worth of coins in market on daily basis.

We got shops, we got businesses but we need buyers desperately. This is bad time for bitcoin.

Now people would look at chart and go "wtf! price ihas been on decline since January. I'm not buying". I wish it didn't drop this much because it looks really bad to new guys.

[Nxtblg]

well this time they're going downwards 

Collapsing bubbles tend to have that effect.


FYI: an old rule-of-thumb about bubbles says that the post-bubble low will completely reverse the bubble. It doesn't hold up in a lot of cases - gold went from $100/oz to $900 in the late '70s but bottomed at $300 in '82 - but it does hold up in enough cases for the rest to be handled by the usual goal-post moving.

If this old saw holds up, Bitcoin would bottom at ~$100.