A huge storm is coming

[OROBTC]

...

Greece is back in the news re a economic huge storm.  The new Syriza (leftist) government apparently will not knuckle under to the "Troika" (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF) re Greece borrowing more in exchange for more austerity there in Greece.  Syriza looks like they want to default or at least get BIG concessions from Germany.  Greece has a debt:GDP of about 175% IIRC.

There is a deadline, FWIW, of February 28 for Greece to agree.

Greece has suffered horribly the past few years, it currently has an unemployment of some 25%, YOUTH unemployment of 50%.  There seems to be a lot of blame to go around:

-- greedy banksters (including Goldman-Sachs helping a prior Greek government to cook its books)
-- general corruption in Greece
-- unwillingness of Germany (and a few others) to absorb the debts of Greece
-- the European Central Bank (led by ex-Goldman employee Mario Draghi)

Etc.

Why does Greece matter?  Its economy is small.  But a "Grexit" (Greek Exit) might be contagious.  Spain has a new & increasingly popular leftist party ("Podemos" = "We Can") that wants to default too, they just had a huge rally in Madrid, apparently in support of Greece.  Spain is TBTF, a failure there would destroy many banks in Europe.

zerohedge.com has been closely following events in Greece and Europe.

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[manselr]

They can kick the shit out of Greece if they want to, but they cant kick Spain, EU depends a lot on it, a lot of Tourism goes there. It will be a disaster to let Spain go. Interesting times indeed. Looking forward to the 28th.

[brock33]

This topic is fascinating. Enjoying seeing all the news coming in about all the EU countries, etc. Any thoughts on the USD?  I haven't scrolled up yet, but if  this was already discussed, please disregard.

[johnyj]

If the house price crash, normal working people will lose their job, because the total consumption of the whole society will shrink dramatically when many people are underwater and have to pay much more to bank to have their house. Then many companies' sale will plummet and a mass scale of firing workers will follow

And this is a good thing (TM).
It would be good, long term, because these jobs were create by malinvestments (capital wrongly allocated to not really profitable business).

If too much homes were built, the sane thing to do is stop building new homes where no one is requested or needed.

The people and the capital freed by the bust will be reallocated, given time, to more productive use. Hopefully, a use able to give back a profit without external manipulations.

This could happen when people still had room to recover from the IT bubble 15 years ago. But instead of doing that, FED pumped up housing bubble to recover from the collapse of the IT bubble, and followed by an even giant debt bubble to recover from housing bubble's collapse, now they are running out of bubbles and when it stalled, everything happened in the past 15 years will be undone, means almost everything is malinvestment since 2000, no one can afford such a loss

[neurotypical]

This topic is fascinating. Enjoying seeing all the news coming in about all the EU countries, etc. Any thoughts on the USD?  I haven't scrolled up yet, but if  this was already discussed, please disregard.

USD will be good for a while, they are the money makers for all we know.
But EU, and the smaller countries will be in big trouble.

[Selena Gomez]

i think thats will makes a epic to rebuy before rising price

[Erdogan]

If the house price crash, normal working people will lose their job, because the total consumption of the whole society will shrink dramatically when many people are underwater and have to pay much more to bank to have their house. Then many companies' sale will plummet and a mass scale of firing workers will follow

And this is a good thing (TM).
It would be good, long term, because these jobs were create by malinvestments (capital wrongly allocated to not really profitable business).

If too much homes were built, the sane thing to do is stop building new homes where no one is requested or needed.

The people and the capital freed by the bust will be reallocated, given time, to more productive use. Hopefully, a use able to give back a profit without external manipulations.

This could happen when people still had room to recover from the IT bubble 15 years ago. But instead of doing that, FED pumped up housing bubble to recover from the collapse of the IT bubble, and followed by an even giant debt bubble to recover from housing bubble's collapse, now they are running out of bubbles and when it stalled, everything happened in the past 15 years will be undone, means almost everything is malinvestment since 2000, no one can afford such a loss

True but you're overlooking a big, huge bubble, the bubble of last resort....

The war bubble?

[zimmah]

QE3 has been terminated for more than 2 months, and we are already seeing crash in almost every commodity and other currency in the world. In 2007, FED stopped stimulant, then after a little over a year, a liquidity crisis finally hit housing market and brought financial crisis. It seems this time FED has much less time and room to maneuver.

What the Fed stops overtly it continues covertly:



$1.6 trillion of mortgage backed securities (yes sub-prime ninja loans) purchased in recent years by the Fed from TBTF banks and hedgies eager to unload their toxic garbage. All of it paid for via QE and finger down on Ctrl-P.

The commodities (and EM currencies crash) is more to do with the world economy being jammed into first gear.

Of course they continue covertly, it's the Feds.

They'll just keep printing money into their pockets and that of their friends and before the market notices the extra several trillions they already made their profit. What do they care about hyperinflation anyway? They can just print more, and if paper becomes more expensive than dollar, they'll just invent 1 trillion dollar bills.

[funkenstein]

...

Mmm, it seems to me like we are still too early in BTC's life that it would do much to provide liquidity in our huge economy.  It is still hard to use (for almost everyone not members of bitcointalk). 

What is so hard to use about bitcoin?

I have seen 5 year olds make transactions with only the slightest assistance. 
It is easier than email because you don't need an email provider. 

However it doesn't matter how easy something is; if nobody ever showed you how to do it you probably don't know it. 

What might be hard is understanding why it is important and beneficial to use.   

[Kdaddy Warbucks]

There's no doubt that 2015 will be a definitive year in the U.S.'s economic standings when compared to past 'performance' and other countries.

Here's what we need to look at... The U.S. is a nearly 239 year old country; a very young country with a record-breaking economy fueled by foreign investment. Government spending on the grand scale will not be a lead to economic demise in the near future, as those vested will not let it be so. The only things to look for in the near future (in my opinion, of course) would be:

- A revisit to the farm crisis (despite low rates, we will be seeing a large turnover as farms are passed to the next generations; baby-boomer)
- Student loan default on a grand scale (a bit early on this yet)
- Nikkei 225 Down-trend indicators similar to that of Dot-Com and Sub-Prime eras
- Chinese growth regressing as a result of government-manipulation being pulled (this will create an interesting ripple effect in major consumer economies and will ultimately lead to extreme wealth distribution issues in China 'at first')
- Our foreign investors re-investing in new markets such as India
- Auto industry correction as crude increases or gas prices are legislatively 'smoothed out' (record industry numbers on a shallow downtrend don't bode well)

These are some of the things that I will be looking at as I move forward in my trading year. Am I worried about the economy? No. As a financial professional, broker, and advisor, volatility is what allows me a career. I believe that BTC will continue to create waves in terms of economic transformation across the spectrum, and for that reason I will have it as a part of my portfolio with regards to research and finances alike.

[calfries]

All will be fine. My guess is as long as their is paper and ink. they will just keep printing money.
Want proof? The European Union just did it!

[coinz19]

The news of full of the same ideas right now. They say that 2015 will be a make or break year for Bitcoin?
I am not really sure how they come to this conclusion? Certainly 2013-14 were as important years for Bitcoin?
For me it just seems like a lot of unnecessary hype. Bitcoin is here to stay.

[BillyBobZorton]

All will be fine. My guess is as long as their is paper and ink. they will just keep printing money.
Want proof? The European Union just did it!

Yup but it will eventually collapse, you cant keep making houses out of thin air and expect not to fall.

[OROBTC]

...

Greece is back in the news again, and not in a good way.

The European Central Bank just fired a shot:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/ecb-pulls-trigger-blocks-funding-greece

Are we on like Donkey-Kong?

*  *  *

Turkey ain't doing so great either, their Lira just took a big dive.

[neurotypical]

...

Greece is back in the news again, and not in a good way.

The European Central Bank just fired a shot:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/ecb-pulls-trigger-blocks-funding-greece

Are we on like Donkey-Kong?

*  *  *

Turkey ain't doing so great either, their Lira just took a big dive.

All hope is now on the finances minister Varoufakis, if he can't solve this situation he promised that he would retire from politics.

[grendel25]

...

While I am pleased to be a participant in the whole Bitcoin experiment (and have a decent chunk), I would be very hesitant to dismiss gold, which has a 5000 year + history as the world's premier store of value.

Bitcoin's future history is quite unproven.  Gold will do just fine for many years to come.

Buy and hold both!

Gold as a currency represents hopelessness.  We should all hope that gold is used for circuits and electronics instead of money.

[calfries]

...

While I am pleased to be a participant in the whole Bitcoin experiment (and have a decent chunk), I would be very hesitant to dismiss gold, which has a 5000 year + history as the world's premier store of value.

Bitcoin's future history is quite unproven.  Gold will do just fine for many years to come.

Buy and hold both!

Gold as a currency represents hopelessness.  We should all hope that gold is used for circuits and electronics instead of money.

Gold is actually something tangible that you can hold. Why does it represent hopelessness? I don't follow your point?

[manselr]

Its game over for greece.. Merkel about to kick their ass off, as predicted.

[Possum577]

But, when there is a shortage of USD now, will bitcoin become a liquidity provider?

The shortage of USD has given strength to the USD. If I owned USD, and USD is growing in strength, why would I sell it for a weaker asset?

I wouldn't.

[kutaka]

...

While I am pleased to be a participant in the whole Bitcoin experiment (and have a decent chunk), I would be very hesitant to dismiss gold, which has a 5000 year + history as the world's premier store of value.

Bitcoin's future history is quite unproven.  Gold will do just fine for many years to come.

Buy and hold both!

Gold as a currency represents hopelessness.  We should all hope that gold is used for circuits and electronics instead of money.

Gold is actually something tangible that you can hold. Why does it represent hopelessness? I don't follow your point?

Because it is not very useful for shopping and easy to counterfeit. I also think that it is a shame that people need to store their wealth in gold in XXI century.  I like gold... on my woman.